Warm to hot, then a trough with rain and storms: Nov 21-26

[hillybilly]

Dynamic but messy weather sequence coming up with a northeast to northwest flow being established over the southeast ahead of a slow moving trough. Sequence of warm to hot days, with multiple 30s likely for Victoria, and mid 20s for Tasmania which is a bit unusual for the time of year. As the trough approaches humidity will increase then shower and and storms tending to rain should become widespread by Sunday.

Quite a spread in the models but currently looks like western Victoria across Bass Strait into northern Tasmania will do best. Eastern Victoria and southern Tasmania and bit on the margins, so probably lighter falls. At this stage, a 100km shift north or south will make a big difference, and progs remain quite jumpy.

Next week could bring a repeat, though still too early to be sure.

[hillybilly]

First warm to hot one today. Overall temps not much changed, perhaps a touch hotter for Friday and Saturday. Rain band has weakened a bit and now looks like being more a South Australia and Victoria event. But…. Big split on models which are very jumpy. There is also a second weak low for Tuesday now.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

10 to 20mm Sunday…

Nice to feel the warmth tho…

[QldTwister]

Yeah excited for 3 4 days of warm hot weather not just a spike day here and there

End of month still looking intrestring with widespread rain and storms and humid across much of the country

Summer is here best 5 months of the year have begun

[StratoBendigo]

Bushfire near Creswick this afternoon in a pine plantation. It's also crossed the Ballarat-Maryborough railway line and closed it.

As for rain - OCF ensemble has 20mm and cooler temps after Saturday. GFS has quite the deluge forecast for Nov 29th.