Becoming hot and windy followed by a strong front with showers and storms: Nov 16-

[hillybilly]

Pretty dynamic spell of weather coming up with a hot one for Saturday with strong gusty winds, followed by a strong front for Sunday. There is quite a solid cold pool tucked in behind the front with a low so should be a cool and showery start to the new week, particularly for Tasmania.

Fire indices will spike on Saturday, and temps will get close to 40C in northwest parts. Rain looks patchy and not great overall. Storms and showers likely to fire for Victoria somewhere near Melbourne and split the state a bit between not much and moderate falls. TAS sees more general activity, but tending to peak out west as is usual. Will then see snow on the mountains here for Monday, and a stiff southerly. Watch for a really warm night Saturday with temps in the low to mid 20s early hours of Sunday.

After this going to head into a long summery set up. Not clear if it will be more troughie so humid with showers or more anticyclonic with days of 30s Certainly looks like summer starts early with either scenario.

[snowfall]

Strong and gusty winds here this morning. Will be a hot one. It's already 22c and will likely be above 30 by mid-afternoon. Looks like eastern and north-eastern Vic will do well with rainfall tomorrow, but it's fairly slim pickings in other parts of Vic. A strong rain shadow here, so wouldn't be surprised if we stay dry.

Last year, we had a positive IOD and ended up with above average rain in October, November, and December. This year, we have a negative IOD and have ended up with October below average and mostly likely November very much below average. A complete reversal of the normal IOD pattern...

[James]

Hoping for some storms and rain in the outer eastern suburbs here, but it models looks like it might just scrape past and go out to the east, will have to wait and see.

Really hot and windy here today, heaps of dead leaves blowing in all directions, summer certainly feels like its here

[StratoBendigo]

1 day blowtorch today. Some single digit RH values in the NW of the State. Looks like an extended period of hot weather into next weekend though.

Incidentally, the Negative IOD might make things rather interesting later this month. GFS is suggesting a significant tropical rain event could occur...

[hillybilly]

Change though here this arvo with a bit of spitty rain. Mostly slipped just south. Max of 23C before it.

That hair drier on the mainland is nasty. Awful RH humidity with strong winds will really send fires running quickly Temps nudging towards 40C on the far northwest.

Thinking western VIC is gonna miss the rain, eastern VIC will do ok, and the dividing line sits somewhere in central Victoria. Not a lot of consistency across the models for where the line sits. Down here bands of showers and storms and then a southerly showery event so most areas should do ok.

[James]

as i said yesterday, nothing for here

[Lucia]

as i said yesterday, nothing for here

Very dissapointingly, have to say,"nothing here either in Lilydale", ...it seems we have only just missed out, doesn't look like much in the other band slowly coming over, hope Iam wrong....

[James]

its really trying and despite it showing heavy rain on radar, still just a few spots and lots of dust, 2-3 rumbles

[snowfall]

Pretty much the expected outcome here. A few spits and spats, but not enough to register in the gauge. The sun's out now and another hot weekend is looming for next weekend. Maybe some rain then, or not. Models are currently messy, so it's a bit early to tell with any certainty at this stage. Looks like there were some good falls further east of Melbourne this morning.

[Blackee]

Nice little burst Bayside has cleared to blue skies. Meanwhile, in Mansfield we had 15mm so far since about 6am. This was on top of a lucky strike on Wednesday when we received a 20mm fall in 20 mins. Back to green for now.
Optimistic for tropical moisture toward the end of the month as some models are suggesting.
Yarra Valley BTW hasn't browned off yet and looks stunning and green.

[hillybilly]

Real mixed bag. Some spots had best falls in months (e.g., Flinders Island scored its best fall for the year) while other spots got zilch. Even across Melbourne over 25mm around Lysterfield, while only a couple of mm’s 10km north. Progs always had it patchy but pretty crazy.

Temps have been nuts too. Melbourne spike to 30C early hours this morning which is pretty crazy for this time of year.

Hobart basically a day of three parts. Was really warm early, then got a cranking band of storms with heavy rain, brief hail and big gusts of winds then cleared to brilliant blue sky as we wait for the front coming up on the west coast. Best falls just shy of 20mm 10km south of the cbd, but radar showed falls near 30mm just east of Tinderbox. Happy to get 8mm here, which adds a bit to the tanks and water the garden which was just starting to dry off.

Tomorrow is clearing for VIC, but a few showers sticking down here, and even a bit of snow on the mountain.

Hot week to follow, and unfortunately not looking that wet across the average of the models.

[James]

only light rain here, just enough to wet the surface. I was digging just earlier and it didnt permeate very deeply.'

whats really interesting is that literally less than a km down the road from here they reported hail, all whilst it bone dry here and blowing a gail and dust and other crap, dried leaves blowing all over the place!! There was def no hail here!

[dazrain]

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 5kr7d.html

forecasting error for the bay yesterday?

kids should’ve been warned!

[StratoBendigo]

Zero rain yesterday here.

Forecast models beyond this week are all over the place. Massively divergent. Could be 0mm or 120mm. A blindfolded darts player is far more accurate.

[hillybilly]

Cool day here with a few showers. Bumped us up to 9mm for the event. No drought breaker but keeps things green for another week.

Going to be a hot end to the work week into the weekend, quite notable for November. Rainband developing about Sunday, but unclear where the best falls will sit. Models tending to place it through southwest Victoria and across Tasmania, but models are jumpy so hard to pick details.