Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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Big system showing up for the week ahead with a trough developing in the Gold Fields of WA then sliding south over Victoria and Tasmania in the week ahead. Exceptionally warm air ahead of the system with upper air temperatures running more than 10C above average ahead of the system. Winds will become gusty, with temps into the mid to high 30s possible into the Mallee. Storms and rain then spreads south and east. Quite a spread in rainfall totals depending on the exact track of the system, but currently looks very wet for Tasmania, and ok for most of Victoria. Could be heavy falls in western parts of TAS, and about the ranges in Victoria.
Mid to high 20s, little humid, unsettled week with multiple troughs passing through showers and thunderstroms tending to rain periods at times. Think eastern and NE Vic will do best this week.
Could be stroms around Vic every day this week so active week ahead nice to see.
Yes, WATL has been rocksteady. But everything from 5 to 60mm on individual forecast models. Inland trough early this week then a complex Low on Thursday/Friday certainly makes for tough rain forecasting...
StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 10:47 am
Yes, WATL has been rocksteady. But everything from 5 to 60mm on individual forecast models. Inland trough early this week then a complex Low on Thursday/Friday certainly makes for tough rain forecasting...
Regardless, it could make for a fun week.
Latest BOM 4 day synoptic chart has a 990 low in western Bass Strait on Friday morning. If I didn't know any better, I'd expect that to bring us significant rain . (3mm overnight here to open the account for this 'system'.)
Couple of mm’s yesterday to “start” the event. Main event now moving in from SA. Showers and storms for the southeast mainland each day this week, becoming rain for Thursday and Friday. The system is lagging about a day for Tasmania.
Already some good falls for SA, in some parts the best for months, though at this stage will be too late for crops. Hopefully they have cut for hay or at least got some of the crops off. Will put a bit of a stay on the fire season, though the blow torch that will hit parts on Wednesday and Thursday will dry things out quickly for areas north and west of the Wimmera. High 30s and low 40s going to be widespread. It’s possible SA will see a new record October max with this.