Warm to hot with possible showers and storms later: January 19-2?

[hillybilly]

A long lived slow pattern with a big high south of Tasmania and a trough over inland eastern Australia. Flow will go southeast to east to northeast, with the trough slowly deepening. Should see some shower and possible storms by later in the weekend.

Will come off a hot month for much of the southeast. Picking Melbourne alone, minima are running near 4C above average and maxima 2-3C above average. Milder in Tasmania but still warmer than average the next few days.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Pretty blowy here, lost power once.
Seems to be a lot of notifications presume it’s all wind related..

[Tassiedave]

Average daily maximum temperature in Launceston so far this January 26.2 degrees. Long term average 24.6 degrees.

[StratoBendigo]

The heat rolls on here. 32c today, but it's dry so not too bad.

Australia Day onwards holds some promise. Both EC and GFS are keen.

Btw, inland South Australia looks like it is going to get very wet. Lake Eyre and Lake Torrens might be quite navigable by boat if it comes off...

[QldTwister]

7 days in a row of 30c heat in Melb couldnt ask for any better just magic weather last few days, tennis has been awesome, beach is awesome, life is great loving it a real summer so good.

Getting Humid and stormy next week days of TS around Vic but pretty isol, hit and miss and mostly ranges and north, mid and late week better for Melb but least the skys will look great and the temp will be awesome sucks working all next week

Crazy rain in SA 60 to 120mm widespread isol 150mm thats near 6 months worth of rain in a few days, thats heavy falls, lots flash and riverine flooding there.

Lots of weather around the country to watch and enjoy even when missing everything but still better than drought years

[hillybilly]

SA really getting the best of this event atm. Meanwhile Vic is just hot, hot, hot. Tasmania is mild, warm, mild, warm

Still finally gets to Vic around Monday or Tuesday. Similar for Tasmania.

Is gonna to end up an exceptionally warm/hot month for much of eastern Australia (and Perth which has just equaled its days above 40C in a summer). That’s not a good thing. Suspect we will see many minimum records and run record.

[Skywalker]

Certainly can't complain about the conditions on the bike, absolutely perfect! Light north easterlies in the morning followed by south easterlies during the late afternoon. Tail wind the whole way.

Escaping to the island tonight for another weekend of sensational beach weather. Would be nice to get some rain though, the constant watering is starting to annoy me.

[Tassiedave]

In the last 30 days Launceston has received just 19.2mm of rain.

[StratoBendigo]

Some impressive rain totals in SA overnight. Streaky Bay a notable 78mm, and nearby Wirrulla 115mm!!!

Just dry dry dry here. We are cooked.

[Sean]

Biggish sort of system showing up around Wed/Thur next week. However, I have zero faith this far out. Seen too many interesting things come and go in the charts that I won't take anything seriously until a few days out.

***Currently*** a state wide system, except the far east, with storms and heavy rain possible.

[Tassiedave]

Wirrulla in South Australia rain last 24 hours 115mm, Previous January 24 hr record 26mm in 1941. January average 9.8 mm

[StratoBendigo]

Wirrulla in South Australia rain last 24 hours 115mm, Previous January 24 hr record 26mm in 1941. January average 9.8 mm

Yeah, it's one out of the box.

Temps in the mid to high 30s here for the next 5 days before the rain hits. It's going be like a Darwin build-up.

[StratoBendigo]

12z EC ramping up to 72mm for us next week. Even half of that would be good in this pitiful desert.

Btw, both Darwin and Perth won't have any rail connection for the next 4 days with significant flood damage between Tarcoola and Port Augusta. That'll likely cause even more problems for their supermarkets etc.

[StratoBendigo]

I'm absolutely in shock at some of the rain totals on the Eyre Peninsula in South Oz.

95mm at Whyalla since 3am this morning is incredible!!!

This incoming system has potential.

[weathergasm]

Very interesting 4-day synoptic chart posted by the BOM today, showing a pretty rare warm front moving through western Victoria on Wednesday. If things go to plan moisture won’t be a problem due to the monsoon trough dipping pretty far into the mainland, but I’m concerned about cloud cover inhibiting convection on Wednesday and Thursday in Victoria.

Very worth keeping an eye on this event, although with the movement of the low anything could happen.

[StratoBendigo]

I'm still quite upbeat about this one. Adelaide is copping it now. A slow mover.

Kimba in SA scored 160mm up to 9am this morning. Stark raving bonkers.

Mt Ives Station scored 140mm. Lake Gardiner and Lake Torrens will be quite a sight...

[Mike]

Interesting system inbound, the trough/activity causing all the havoc in SA looks like it washes out a little early in the week leaving tonnes of moisture and then a new upper trough moves across late Tuesday to Wednesday ish deepening the surface trough again and then kind of loitering. Hoping for at least 15-20mm by next Saturday.

Meanwhile BOM have been 1-2 degrees over with the forecast temp 3 days in a row here, hope that keeps up! 29.1 for a high today.

[Gordon]

Same here, and only 1C over average for Jan maximum... so far.

it will be nice if we can get some rain midweek - even 150mm earlier in the month wont keep things green for much longer.

[Mike]

Wonder how that low in the Tasman will affect the system to the west. Atm its very much a blocking set up.

[StratoBendigo]

Wonder how that low in the Tasman will affect the system to the west. Atm its very much a blocking set up.

It's slowing things down. Kadina on the Yorke Peninsula in SA has had 110mm since yesterday evening. 85mm of that falling since 9:00am this morning. Mad.

00z ICON forecast bumps up this week's rain to 80mm for here. I think 30mm is realistic.