Yet yet another slow moving low pressure system 24-27/11/21

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:29 am

And if anyone wants to see the most ridiculous rainfall forecast from a numerical model, check out Access-G for December 1 in Vic...
snowfall
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Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:26 am

Nothing much here for the past couple of days. We've had showers or storms close by, but these have slipped either to our east or west, or developed over us and headed elsewhere! Very much a hit and miss scenario but given that it has been a bit sparse, there have been a lot more misses. As has been the pattern for the past couple of weeks, the best of it has headed across NSW.

Fog and light drizzle here this morning with just 0.4mm.
Mike
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Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:27 am

Eventually had a shower around 8pm, fog mizzle and wind since. 2mm and 2.4mm for this "event"
Skywalker
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Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:54 am

Looks like it's time to dust off the sprinkler & hoses with not a drop in sight coming up.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Tassiedave
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Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:07 pm

Launceston once again reinforces its reputation for being sneaky warm. Reached a maximum today of 27 degrees. Even warmer than Brisbane!
Blackee
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Location: Elwood and Mansfield 370m

Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:30 pm

Dark sky and rumbles earlier have given way to moderate rain here which is intensifying significantly :)
Mansfield 370m and Elwood
Blackee
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Location: Elwood and Mansfield 370m

Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:30 pm

Update: 34mm in less than an hour here. Rapid development about 3:30pm with significant rain rates at peak. May have been on a wind convergence line.

Still moderate rain. Feels very La Niña just like in 2011.
Mansfield 370m and Elwood
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Petros
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Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Thu Nov 25, 2021 5:43 pm

We seem to be tracking as per the original GFS guess at the thread start for Nth Central Gippsland.

We've had 3.25mm since last night (when storm-like cells threatened from the NW, but died on our doorstep), persistent thick drizzle arrived here mid arvo from the west, I expect the rain rate to dramatically increase soon when a SE'ly wind arrives.

[edit] - a scan of latest model updates shows this system is occluding and might be a repeat last weeks system, and be for NSW only. For Gippsland, that's good news farming/market garden-wise. Farmers around here that have drawn on irrigation, are still getting spill entitlements, so likely till Dec 15th, retain a full water right to get through this summer. Our greenkeeper at Royal Maffra Golf Club thinks there might be a chance that he wont have to water fairways at all this summer - that would be the first time in his 30+ year career here.
StratoBendigo
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Location: Kangaroo Flat

Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:32 pm

0mm for the entire 'event' here. Was 22c earlier today, now a chilly 14c. Brrrr...

I'll be filing this one away in the "Forecast Models Stuffed it Up Badly" folder.
Gordon
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Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:16 pm

4.5 + 2.5 + 2mm here. 9mm is probably about what we wanted/ needed here, but yes - the models have been terrible for the second week in a row. .

71.5mm mtd vs 73.3mm average.
snowfall
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:15 am

1.4mm here with the rain yesterday. It was very light and spitty at times, so it didn't really add up to much. But it made for a grey, damp and foggy day.

Fog and thick drizzle here overnight and this morning, with 5mm so far, so a bit more productive!
Mike
Cumulonimbus
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Location: Woodend 578m

Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:06 am

2.4mm to 9am and mizzle fog and wind continue, up to 4.9mm for this event now 77.7mm for the month
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Petros
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Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:21 am

Steady SE'ly breeze here with misty rain, which started in the early hours of the morning.
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Petros
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Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:40 pm

Found 16.5mm in the gauge just now, so a handy 19.75mm to keep the good times ticking along in Nth Central Gippsland.

Heard that there was a lot more rain down around Bairnsdale this morning. I expect minor flood warnings for the Avon and Mitchell Rivers.
samboz
Cumulus
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Location: Sale, VIC

Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:51 pm

Dry one for SALE, 7.5mm @ home.
Been drizzly with some breeze, is it WINTER ?? max today 16.8C
BOM East Sale - "56 km/h 30 knots Highest Gust @ 2:26pm"
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:30 pm

The new weather guy on ABC said 90mm received somewhere near Mansfield,
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hillybilly
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Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:19 am

2.8mm yesterday so 7mm for the event. Lots of fog, a fair bit of fog, but overall a fizzer. Huge event to our north, but just missed everything for most of Vic east of about Eildon.

Some quite chilly minima in Tas at low levels overnight with just 0.2C at Grove. Well short of a November record, but would have been a December record if it happen in three days. To the north lots of record monthly rainfall. Been a real roller coaster across so much of the inland east. Three years of record drought, then one normal year and now substantial floods.

Big pattern shift coming up. Large dome of heat about to build over the western half of Australia. Could well see national records in northwest WA. Any northerly that sets up will have a lot more heat in it with a much warmer week ahead. Might get a bit of thundery weather mid week.
Tassiedave
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Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:37 am

Things look fairly boring for Vic/Tas over the next week or so.
Skywalker
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Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:14 pm

Tassiedave wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:37 am
Things look fairly boring for Vic/Tas over the next week or so.
Yep you can say that again.

Today was day 1 of manual watering and it looks there will be plenty more to come over the next week or two.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
StratoBendigo
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Location: Kangaroo Flat

Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:00 pm

Wednesday and Thursday might not be that boring given we could have LIs of -3 over our neck of the woods.

Storm action anyone? (Something largely missing here in 2021, apart from 1 or 2 days so far).
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