Low and Intense Cold Front - July 23 - July 26

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StratoBendigo
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Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:45 pm

A very vigorous cold front and possible Bass Strait low in appearing in the forecast models for the coming weekend as polar-modified air collides with a sub-tropical airmass from the NW. More heavy snowfalls, possibly to low-levels, in the mix.
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Didjman
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Mon Jul 19, 2021 1:59 pm

And WIND!
StratoBendigo
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Mon Jul 19, 2021 2:14 pm

Didjman wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 1:59 pm
And WIND!
Yep, lots of 30-40 kt gusts are likely. But probably from a far less destructive direction as occurred last month.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Mon Jul 19, 2021 2:17 pm

Facebook said hot pink.
140klm. ?
Surely not again.
Different direction. Great so, those that missed it last time, may not this time.
StratoBendigo
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Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:48 pm

Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 2:17 pm
Facebook said hot pink.
140klm. ?
Surely not again.
Different direction. Great so, those that missed it last time, may not this time.
That was from last night's corrupted 06Z GFS model output. Ignore it.
Gordon
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Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:15 pm

Latest BOM forecasts are a bit more reasonable for this period: significant rain, wind and cold, but not crazy - thank goodness.
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hillybilly
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Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:48 am

Looks solid. Potential for near record sea levels on the coast with a big surge and lots of erosion. Lake Entrance, Portland and Port Fairy are spots to watch. Could see roads go under. Gales and rain, though totals don’t look excessive at this point.

Also potential for widespread low level snow on Sunday. EC has been showing snow levels dropping to a bit below 500m on Sunday. Precip isn’t ideal, but should be some showers at least. There is then a strong warm front later Sunday into Monday.
Gordon
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Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:29 pm

Snow is still in our forecast for Sunday morning. So far in 2021 we've had it fall but not stick. Third time lucky?
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hillybilly
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Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:57 pm

Gordon wrote:
Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:29 pm
Snow is still in our forecast for Sunday morning. So far in 2021 we've had it fall but not stick. Third time lucky?
Does look good. Main concern is moisture, as it will tend to be quite westerly. Temperatures are very cold with snow levels like to drop below 500m Sunday morning. EC is suggesting potentially as low as about 400m. Thinking we will get snow here in the Nongs, but that could change. Might see a bit of settling, fingers crossed.

Cold one here today. Max of 6.6C. Foggy for most the day with spitty showers amounting to 1mm more in the gauge.
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hillybilly
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Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:11 am

Chilly 3C here this morning. Bit of an in between day today head of the approaching weekend system.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:26 am

Sub-zero this morning, now fog has rolled in and it's just 3c. Going to be a very cold day today I suspect.
QldTwister
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Thu Jul 22, 2021 6:22 pm

Cold, Cold, Cold, is the story but it is mid winter

Good to see widespread rain in the NW, but only light falls, crazy cold up there 5 or 6c and rain almost snow up there lol

Big strong fronts for the weekend and bloody cold, snow to low levels and very windy, but not lots of rain then a bit warmer and windy next week

Hopefully a few tropical connections return into August for inland areas keep the winter winter ticking alnog

Regular fronts will keep things wet and damp in south
Bring on the heat and stroms
Gordon
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Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:12 pm

Really cold here today, max 5C and not even a peep of sun. BOM are forecasting a few hours of light rain at 1C for us in the wee hours - normally I'd expect that to equal snow, but evidently the uppers must be too warm?

No backing down however from BOM or the models re snow here late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Our best chance so far this winter for low temps and precipitation to collide... we'll see.
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hillybilly
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Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:41 pm

2.9 to 6.8C here. Quite a wintery one. Frosty start, cloudy arvo.

Inbound rain is fading. Shame as it’s cold enough for snow to about 600m under it.

Front tomorrow will similarly run long the coast.

Going to be a bleak few days with high wind chill, cold temps, but not a whole lot of rain away from the immediate coast and ranges. Big surge on the coast.

Still looks like very low snow levels on Sunday down to about 400m in central but moisture is a bit of an issue. Expecting flurries for the Nongs, but not sure we will have the showers for a cover. Probably better for the likes of Trentham, Otway, higher parts of South Gippsland etc.
Macedonian
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Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:02 pm

Horrifically cold and bleak at Mt Macedon today.
Started out with full frost, then cloud and wind kicked in to keep it close to freezing all day.
The frost was still intact when I arrived home from work.
Min was 1C max was only 2.5C.
Second coldest day so far this Winter.
Trentham squeaked up to 4C
Kilmore Gap was 5C.
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Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:25 pm

That’s pretty cold Macedonian. We had a low of 1.5c this morning. Managed to briefly sneak up to 7.8c, but pretty much the entire day was around 5-6c. Felt very cold with the wind.
Macedonian
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Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:53 pm

Yes , at first I thought my PWS waa bung but I asked my partner to check the old digital thermo and it was exactly the same.
When we get frost here, which is not that often, it can often hang around for a day or longer.

ABC weather said snow could be possible in Gisborne on Saturday!
StratoBendigo
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Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:11 am

4mm overnight and currently 7 degC and overcast. It's been quite a significant period of cold weather. Reminds me of July 1995 & 1996.
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Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:20 am

Macedonian wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:53 pm
Yes , at first I thought my PWS waa bung but I asked my partner to check the old digital thermo and it was exactly the same.
When we get frost here, which is not that often, it can often hang around for a day or longer.

ABC weather said snow could be possible in Gisborne on Saturday!
That would indeed be great. A lot of factors have to align though, one of which will be the crucial moisture, which might not exactly be in abundance, but we'll see! You will almost certainly be seeing snow.

Currently drizzling here and 5c.
Gordon
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Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:32 am

4C here. At times like this, I regret not keeping better temperature records - I can't remember the last time we were 5C or below for such an extended period (no sign of letting up), although as hillybilly would rightly point out, memory does not equal hard scientific data!
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