January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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hillybilly
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Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:34 am

Cool and drizzle morning in the Nongs. 0.3mm in the gauge.

Strong front for tomorrow. Shame the link with the tropics is not there as this one would have been a doozie. Still, should see storms near the front with coldies with small hail to follow. 850Ts drop to about 1C and snow levels to 1300m so proper cold air. Will mainly affect the south, but some showers will sneak across the divide.

Expecting to see 20mm in the Nongs, but could do better. EC has local falls over 30mm so has potential. Will then run into a fairly cool spell.

Thinking summer proper will return in about a week with a TC possible off WA and the MJO becoming favourable.
Wilko
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Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:17 pm

EC has 18mm here
Hope it holds
Also I would like the “Bay” effect to kick in please !
Only 15mm so far for January
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hillybilly
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Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:59 pm

EC bumped up totals even more. Impressive system for mid January. Should be quite a bit of snow in the alps, though will struggle to settle coming on the back of the heat. Struggling to think of too many January snowfalls. There was a very good one back in 2012 (https://www.abc.net.au/local/photos/201 ... 406135.htm), and another back in 1993 and 1994. Probably some that didn’t stick in the memory,

Should see some decent thunderies tomorrow, though more of the coldie type. Have seen these systems drop 50mm plus down stream from the bay, so this one has potential if it gets cranking.
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hillybilly
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:19 am

Cold morning up here with a minimum of just 7.7C. Showers inbound which have already dumped solid falls around the Otways.
Tassiedave
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:26 am

Heavy showers here in northern Tasmania. Strahan on the west coast 20mm overnight.
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chasersaddict76
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:54 pm

Feels wntery today in middle of summer, its common get some quick cold days.

19.7c at 12.45pm
Gordon
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:55 pm

9C with gutsy cells punching through here: gales, rain & small hail, 2mm in about 5 minutes. Another one lining up.
Dane
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:24 pm

Pretty Cold Day here. Reached 15.6c earlier but its 10.2c now.
Just 1mm since 9am but an active Cold Air Thunderstorm not far to my North.
Had quite a few rumbles but they have stopped now.
Skywalker
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:52 pm

Some nice chunky showers pushing through the island on the radar. :D
Meanwhile dribs & drabs here in the western hellhole. To be expected I guess for this south westerly front setup. :(
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:09 pm

Check out that black coming from the south west ?

Edit. And just like that it was gone.
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Onetahuti
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:28 pm

Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Check out that black coming from the south west ?

Edit. And just like that it was gone.
Hit here as it dissipated or immediately after it disappeared from the radar, whatever, it was heavy but short lasting.
StratoBendigo
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:36 pm

Had some coldies drift over here this afternoon. But it was all virga and evaporated before it hit the ground.

Extended GFS forecast shows potential for a cyclone impacting Sthn Qld/Nthn NSW around Australia Day, with the aftermath making things interesting here. It'll probably disappear in the next model run.
Gordon
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:45 pm

Up to 6.5mm here from mainly short, sharp, thundery showers.

Also bursts of small hail from each cell - top temp 13C, mostly less than 11C. That's cold for mid January, even at 620m asl.
James
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:10 pm

quite a few rumbles around today and a couple nice ones when a cloud came over dumping small hail late this afternoon.

they seem quite shortlived, before a new one brews - are these being fueled by the sun or will they hang around after dark tonight? - as always it would be nice to see some lightning in the dark!
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hillybilly
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:13 pm

Nice wintery one here as promised by EC :D Brief max of 14.7C, but mostly around 12, and now down to 9C. Would put the snow line somewhere around 1200m atm. Had a couple of booming rumbles, and multiple small hail showers. Just shy of 7mm in the gauge.

Should be a showery 24 hours ahead for southern parts, though being quite dry if your rain shadowed it will be mainly spitty showers and blowie.

Btw some impressive lowerings on the coldies, and at least one tornado/spout over the bay, taken from Sorrento.

Image
stevco123
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:33 pm

So I left to go Bunnings and the wife calls me saying "you missed out on the weather", laughs, and hangs up. I turn the car around and get home to this:


1cm size in some of them.
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stevco123
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:35 pm

And here is the culprit... this is looking easterly from Hall Rd, Skye. A few flangs in it too. Very narrow band less than 1km wide i would say as my parents in Cranbourne East told me they only had rain
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stevco123
Supercell
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Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:36 pm

Definitely a day to remember with weather that was not forecast initially (hail, tornadoes etc)
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weathergasm
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Location: Elwood home, CBD work

Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:48 pm

The coldies definitely have a bit of grunt to them here in Box Hill, very rumbly shower of hail just went through.

A fairly substantial looking line winding up from the south on radar too.
stevco123
Supercell
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Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:20 pm

Can see lightning with that incoming band
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