Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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Sean
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Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:37 pm

This event is looking less stormy and more rainy by the day, which will probably mean more people get some rain, however rain totals will be lower on the whole (i.e. less pockets of 30mm plus).

My green lawn is beginning to go brown. Was nice while it lasted :(
Skywalker
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Sat Nov 21, 2020 6:47 pm

Tassiedave wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:49 am
Latest models now suggesting heat will persist from Saturday 28/11 through to Monday 30/11. Could be huge
BOM's latest forecast for Melbourne is for 23 next Saturday with southerlies. :-?
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
weathergasm
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Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:23 pm

Skywalker wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 6:47 pm
Tassiedave wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:49 am
Latest models now suggesting heat will persist from Saturday 28/11 through to Monday 30/11. Could be huge
BOM's latest forecast for Melbourne is for 23 next Saturday with southerlies. :-?
Fantastic, I for one hope the BOM is right👌
wobbie
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:32 am

Desperately needing this supposed 20mm Sunday/Monday
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hillybilly
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:20 am

Progs generally look good. 5-15mm west, 15-50mm east. Rain totals increase from about Geelong east. EC which has been most stable has up to 60mm in the eastern ranges, and 15-40mm across the Melbourne metro. The Mallee will miss out - just a stinker for them with 40s in the hottest parts.

It builds during the arvo in western areas with widespread thunderies and rain developing late. EC has a lot of lightning overnight, so should be one of those systems which builds overnight, rather than fades when the sun going down. The action looks quite late so may not be that impressive til after about 5pm.

Late this week looks shocking. Could well get a new Victorian max temp record if EC comes of, and 40s around Melbourne. Can’t see us escaping a shocker on Friday or Saturday. The Melbourne record is 40.9 and Victorian record 45.8 (used to be just 44.5). EC has us hitting about those numbers on Saturday arvo :? Guess a toss of the coin whether we break records or not at this stage :( Inland will be hot for Friday to Sunday, south saved by sea breezes and a weak change on Friday and likely Sunday.
dazrain
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:55 am

Why are BOM still going for 23 degrees on Saturday if EC is going for a stinker?

What are the other models saying?
StratoBendigo
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:03 am

Getting back to the current weather:
Went outside this morning and I was like "Welcome to Tropical Queensland"... Humid out there. Some upgrades in models so perhaps 10-15mm tonight.

Next weekend is tricky. Saturday looks to be the shocker. EC has 22mm here for Monday 30th.
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Didjman
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:03 am

I like the look of the clearing out west on the satpic. Could be an afternoon breeding ground :D

Latest Melbourne sounding is out:

PW 33.3mm, TT 48, LI -2.1C. Air rising will climb from around 7,000ft to the Tropopause at 38,000 ft :D
snowfall
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:32 am

Moderate rain falling here for the past half hour. It has been feeling very humid over the past few days with relatively high DPs, especially last night. We really need the rain. So far, we've only had about 20mm for the month despite November being one of our wettest months on average. It is still fairly green around here but definitely noticing some drying out in the landscape.
Hawker
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:44 am

Didjman wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:03 am
I like the look of the clearing out west on the satpic. Could be an afternoon breeding ground :D

Latest Melbourne sounding is out:

PW 33.3mm, TT 48, LI -2.1C. Air rising will climb from around 7,000ft to the Tropopause at 38,000 ft :D
yes lightning showing in the northern Wimmera now
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:12 pm

Dad mention good rain as he headed back to Horsham around Beaufort Ararat
Hawker
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:18 pm

Storm up at Cobram, that would be right if you a decent storm that place will get one.
Some damage, lightning and grass fires. A bit of heat probably helped.
Looks like more moving into the Mallee, Wimmera, would not be wanted up there!
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:42 pm

Farmers will not want this
Nor fruit growers.
Open blue skies.
James - think you’ll get your wish tonight.
James
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:52 pm

Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:42 pm
Farmers will not want this
Nor fruit growers.
Open blue skies.
James - think you’ll get your wish tonight.
I hope so, are conditions better this time around? very muggy out there atm with blue sky and hot! - am i right that the best storm potential is overnight into the early hours for melb or could we get something earlier with all this sunshine to kick off the convection?
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Didjman
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:59 pm

Bit of both I reckon, watch that area on the radar west of Ballarat. Is lightning active and strengthening as it moves east.

And further west, the area from Naracoorte to Mt Gambier!

EDIT - temp trending upwards here as the sun is out. Any convection will top 38000ft
Sean
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Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:19 pm

James wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:52 pm
Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:42 pm
Farmers will not want this
Nor fruit growers.
Open blue skies.
James - think you’ll get your wish tonight.
I hope so, are conditions better this time around? very muggy out there atm with blue sky and hot! - am i right that the best storm potential is overnight into the early hours for melb or could we get something earlier with all this sunshine to kick off the convection?
Clear skies promote storm development, so conditions are looking a lot better... Was expecting the cloud to stick around, but it's breaking up.
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Didjman
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:55 pm

Convection is kicking off over Macedon and Daylesford (seen from Pretty Sally). Could be a fun evening :D
Dane
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:57 pm

Had 2.4mm's of Rain here between 10.10am and 10.40am. After that the skies cleared for a while
and the Temp jumped up to 27.1c on my PWS. Then another shower from 2.20pm and 2.35pm
added another 1.2mm's to the gauge. Heard a couple of distant rumbles from the east about 2.45pm
after the shower had cleared. Currently its 22/19c.
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Didjman
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:06 pm

BoM grid point wind charts indicating vertical wind shear in the low to mid levels with winds increasing with height and veering from N to W. Steering is westerly in the upper levels.
Temp here at 320m alt is 28.2/16.5.
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Supercellimpact
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:16 pm

Bom predicted 37 degrees for Bendigo today. Only peaked at 27 deg so far due to cloud cover.
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