Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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Skywalker
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:27 am

Another dribs & drabs event here, just over 5mm here. :roll:

Not looking ahead to next week's potential event at all. Tbh the so called models have been a sick joke lately.
hillybilly wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:12 am
Glad it’s not gonna be warm and sunny with Melbournians still housebound So need a trip to the coast....
I would just like the opportunity to see both my family & my house. Can't do either due to the ban on regional travel. :(
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Didjman
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:04 am

Rain rate up to 56mm / hr here.
Blackie
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:45 am

We got the higher side of the forecast here at 25mm event total so far. Steady and wet night. Dew point around 15C so feeling damp.

Creeks and gullies have again come back to life after last week's heavy flows. Will check out rivers later. Eildon will hit 65% today which is an increase of just shy of 5% this week :o

Not sure what to expect this arvo looking at radar and sat pic. Seems any development will be of the convective kind so potential for some heavy showers.
Mike
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:57 am

9.6mm yesterday arvo and overnight total. 2.6mm Thursday pm and overnight
Dane
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:36 pm

Definately on the lighter end of things here. A fizzer really.
Just 5.5mm's up to 9am this morning - none since
6.3mm's in the the last 48 hours - 53.2mm,'s for the month.
Ballarat Airport did a bit better with 8.0mm's to 9am - 8.6mm's in
the last 48 hours and 53.6mm's for the month.
James
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:22 pm

another fail in terms of predictions, i had to laugh at the storm charts being shown on various weather groups showing severe storms for the east of Melbourne, lo and behold this afternoon it was changed to further east :P

As I said earlier I am not sure why people still feel these predictions are at all accurate and hinge on them as if they are, when its only changed moments before the date/timeframe.

Its not forecasting really, kinda like if you were a psychic and predicted next Mon morning it would hail, but then were able to quickly change the prediction at 6am that morning - and then get the credit for a wonderful accurate forecast!
Blackie
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:46 pm

Storms developing sw and east of here as forecast. Some decent totals in quicktime with Wang getting 20mm in 25mins.
Nice hearting with sun out so this should enhance cells.
stevco123
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:53 pm

James wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:22 pm
another fail in terms of predictions, i had to laugh at the storm charts being shown on various weather groups showing severe storms for the east of Melbourne, lo and behold this afternoon it was changed to further east :P

As I said earlier I am not sure why people still feel these predictions are at all accurate and hinge on them as if they are, when its only changed moments before the date/timeframe.

Its not forecasting really, kinda like if you were a psychic and predicted next Mon morning it would hail, but then were able to quickly change the prediction at 6am that morning - and then get the credit for a wonderful accurate forecast!
If you're interested, have a read of why models are wrong and how they could be a lot more accurate. I won't get into it further than that as it's not the right thread, but it all points to one thing and unfortunately i always get condemned when talking about it.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Sean
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:43 pm

James wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:22 pm
another fail in terms of predictions, i had to laugh at the storm charts being shown on various weather groups showing severe storms for the east of Melbourne, lo and behold this afternoon it was changed to further east :P

As I said earlier I am not sure why people still feel these predictions are at all accurate and hinge on them as if they are, when its only changed moments before the date/timeframe.

Its not forecasting really, kinda like if you were a psychic and predicted next Mon morning it would hail, but then were able to quickly change the prediction at 6am that morning - and then get the credit for a wonderful accurate forecast!
Thing is though, the models haven't been that wrong. GFS in particular has been on point lately. Yes, EC has overestimated storms, but the BOM doesn't formulate their forecast based on a single model, hence their forecasting has been fairly conservative and thus accurate.

The weather systems have been quite complex of late with multicore lows and multiple troughs, not to mention La Nina, which makes accurate predictions hard (quantum computing may resolve this, but that's a while away).

I think we're going to see much of the same shuffling about re the models until such time as La Nina breaks down, which means we'll have a good idea when and where events will unfold but not down to the extremely localised level of a particular suburb or storm.
weathergasm
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:05 pm

I get being disappointed by forecasts that don’t turn out the way you want them to, but if you want certainty out of a hobby maybe start growing bonsai or something, because following the weather clearly isn’t for you😂

I myself read these threads to figure out when I should be on heightened alert for the possibility of storms or heavy rain. If they don’t eventuate I shrug, then don’t pay attention to the radar and synoptics until the next thread pops up. If it’s actually ruining your day that storms didn’t eventuate, Melbourne is the wrong city for you I reckon
James
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:17 pm

weathergasm wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:05 pm
I get being disappointed by forecasts that don’t turn out the way you want them to, but if you want certainty out of a hobby maybe start growing bonsai or something, because following the weather clearly isn’t for you😂

I myself read these threads to figure out when I should be on heightened alert for the possibility of storms or heavy rain. If they don’t eventuate I shrug, then don’t pay attention to the radar and synoptics until the next thread pops up. If it’s actually ruining your day that storms didn’t eventuate, Melbourne is the wrong city for you I reckon
I'm not sure where I say I expect certainty infact my points been that weather doesn't have that and (lately) the weather models and forecasts have been quite off the mark in many ways.

I'm not sure either where I said that if storms don't eventuate it ruins my day. (though i think for anyone keen on weather and storms...that's a given!)

Thanks to those who have explained a bit more about the why's and how's that's shed some light on why its been how its been lately, yes la nina seems to be a factor making things not quite work how they might otherwise!

As said I find it all interesting, and always seeking to learn more behind how it all works - I usually dont post much (these days anyway) but lockdown has meant I have had some more time to look at what its all doing.

One thing I am noticing so far is that we generally are not getting the hours of sunlight we might otherwise get this time of the year, which has affected plant growth in the vegetable garden...and the seedling germination (no bunnings to buy the plants at this year!) lockdown and la nina has not been good in that area!
QldTwister
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:47 pm

9mm here for then event, near forecast, but dont need more heavy falls alreday wet around here.

More good falls in northern and eastern Vic with the alps near 100mm for the event and still raining :D :D

Few thunderstorms in the east too, and cooler and dry for much of the rest of the state.

Next Fri Sat another Big rain and thunderstrom event moving through much of the country classic La Nina :D :D
Bring on the heat and stroms
Sean
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:16 pm

James wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:17 pm
weathergasm wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:05 pm
I get being disappointed by forecasts that don’t turn out the way you want them to, but if you want certainty out of a hobby maybe start growing bonsai or something, because following the weather clearly isn’t for you😂

I myself read these threads to figure out when I should be on heightened alert for the possibility of storms or heavy rain. If they don’t eventuate I shrug, then don’t pay attention to the radar and synoptics until the next thread pops up. If it’s actually ruining your day that storms didn’t eventuate, Melbourne is the wrong city for you I reckon
I'm not sure where I say I expect certainty infact my points been that weather doesn't have that and (lately) the weather models and forecasts have been quite off the mark in many ways.

I'm not sure either where I said that if storms don't eventuate it ruins my day. (though i think for anyone keen on weather and storms...that's a given!)

Thanks to those who have explained a bit more about the why's and how's that's shed some light on why its been how its been lately, yes la nina seems to be a factor making things not quite work how they might otherwise!

As said I find it all interesting, and always seeking to learn more behind how it all works - I usually dont post much (these days anyway) but lockdown has meant I have had some more time to look at what its all doing.

One thing I am noticing so far is that we generally are not getting the hours of sunlight we might otherwise get this time of the year, which has affected plant growth in the vegetable garden...and the seedling germination (no bunnings to buy the plants at this year!) lockdown and la nina has not been good in that area!
Don't worry, the weather frustrates all of us, especially when it doesn't unfold as forecasted. Melbourne (and Victoria in general) is borderline when it comes to snow and storms, hence we get to 'enjoy' a lot of fizzers. We can see it in Melbourne's average rainfall, which is a dismal 650mm (give or take 100-200mm depending on which side), which means events are generally limited/less exciting. Sydney on the other hand doubles us at around 1200mm. So if a Sydneysider moved down here, they'd find their weather fortunes would drop in half (or even more depending on how sh*t the year is).

On a positive note, while not everything's gone to plan, actual rainfall accumulations have been adding up across the the state. Over the last few years, vic's been brown by now.
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hillybilly
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:07 pm

Scored 24.6mm to 9am and 3mm after 9am. Got one rumble from the cell just before the wind change. Thread on about 35mm. Might get a bit of drizzle overnight

To be honest it was almost exactly as I expected. Melbourne was alway really marginal for storms. You could see it in the lack of clear air on the progs and satellite and saturated airmass. You rarely get decent storm outbreaks when the atmosphere is nearly saturated from surface to the troposphere as there is little instability to be released (a saturated airmass will have a lapse rate which is moist adiabatic which is quite a low lapse rate).

The models are getting better all the time and quite remarkable now. Not perfect, but they now need super computing to catch up. The next step which we will see in a few years is global models down to about 1km which will mean individual storms will be predicted.

More interest in the week ahead, with storms a chance Thursday and Friday though looks more like another rain event with embed stuff. Could wiggle either way depending on timing on the thought.
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hillybilly
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Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:15 am

Fog and drizzle here overnight dropped another mm. MTD is now about 110mm. 15mm or so to average.

Pretty uneventful week ahead until Friday/Saturday which could be big.
Tassiedave
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Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:01 am

Rainfall in Tasmania: Gray 45mm, St Helens 32mm, Tea Tree 25mm, Wynyard 24mm, Deloraine 21mm, Launceston 13mm, Hobart 11mm
Mike
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Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:30 am

Another 2.0mm of drizzle overnight which is a tick over 63mm MTD
snowfall
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Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:48 am

11mm for the event all up here and 51mm MTD. Quite a cold wind out there this morning - currently 8.5c with a 6.1c wind chill. Have to get the wood heater going.
Wilko
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Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:51 pm

Not much here for last sequence
Upcoming some variations in the models as expected from Friday onwards however
Access and GFS going biblical :o :o :o
Inland areas particularly looking plentiful again :D
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Didjman
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Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:36 pm

New thread posted for end of the week :D
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