Inland Trough & Tropical Infeed - 17th - 21st Sept

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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StratoBendigo
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Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:29 am

As we approach Spring Equinox, some possible rain this coming weekend from the North. Is La Nina/-ve IOD finally awakening? Looks like 15-40mm possible for much of Vic...
Gordon
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Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:21 am

Good to get this thread started! All models I can view (ACCESS, GFS & EC) have extensive rain from late in the week until....?

They diverge on exactly where and when, but in total this looks like a big break in the pattern which is going to deliver significant rain to large areas of eastern Australia.
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hillybilly
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Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:26 pm

Thanks for starting Gordon. Messy but hopeful. Thursday is interesting as a starter. Tropical moisture will surge south ahead of a front that sneaks through. Could be a surprise opener, with some models (GFS, CMC, ICON and French) going for local heavy falls.

Weekend could get quite toastie and stormy. 850Ts head well into the teens so 30s aren’t out of the question.
Gordon
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Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:52 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:26 pm
Thanks for starting Gordon.
I would like to take the credit hillybilly but it was actually Strato :). Looking forward to watching it unfold!
Sean
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Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:26 am

The charts are showing a band of thunderstorms passing through in a week, though it keeps shifting up, down, left and right - meaning we have no idea where it'll peak, if it happens at all, yet. Outback QLD and NSW look to do very well each run however.

Btw, I don't want to get too excited in fear of it disappearing, but the water temp anomalies are quite strong in favour of La Nina now (-2 to -3 below average in the mid, far east of the Pacific); and it's looking very La Nina-esque on the precipitable maps, with strong, easterly flows of moisture building over the Solomon and Coral seas (i.e. the atmosphere is responding). Hoping to see some decent easterly toughs appear in the synoptics.
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hillybilly
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Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:29 am

Progs still looking good. Couple of nice sunny ones then days of showers and later storms. EC and most models have good falls by the end of the event.

Going to be a nice warm weekend. EC showing a max of around 26-28C in the metro area so a spike to 30C is not out of the question. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday all showing potential storms.

The moisture infeed with this one is excellent with precip water values in the 25-50mm range.
StratoBendigo
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Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:47 am

Yeah, it looks quite good for decent rain - perhaps 20-30mm. We need it here though especially as Lake Eppalock is now dropping, not rising. An extremely dry September here so far.

Latest BOM outlook charts look very wet for October. And this might happen with a train of tropical moisture persisting post-Equinox thru inland Eastern Australia. It's like a switch gets flicked...
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Didjman
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Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:14 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:29 am
Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday all showing potential storms.

The moisture infeed with this one is excellent with precip water values in the 25-50mm range.
Charging Cams and sound recorder for possible action Sunday onwards:D :bringiton:
QldTwister
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Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:14 pm

A warm humid unstable week ahead exciting times :D

Cloud and showers on Thursday into early Friday and maybe an isol shower or TS on the ranges Friday arvo

Warm Humid weekend in the south could be some good rains in the Mallee Saturday 20-30mm in quick time possibly even higher with storms

Moisture moves South on Sunday with more showers possible storms warm and humid

Monday front lifts all this moisture with a band of rain and thunderstorms moves across the state with heavy falls

Tues to Thurs showers and isol storms cooler

Most of the state should see 20-40mm by mid next week so more welcome rain for many
Bring on the heat and stroms
StratoBendigo
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Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:15 am

It looks like the main event will be Saturday night. Some heavy falls in the Mallee, Wimmera, and North Central Vic possible. And maybe some storms in that as well.
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hillybilly
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Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:08 am

Nice day ahead. All changes tomorrow, with rain, showers and storms. Currently looks like the focus will be north of the divide.
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Didjman
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Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:12 am

With the storm season approaching has anyone used the BoM Aviation pages (Grid Point Wind / Temp charts and SigWx charts)? I am thinking of using them to possibly work out where storms are likely to fire.
Skywalker
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Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:56 am

Didjman wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:14 pm
Charging Cams and sound recorder for possible action Sunday onwards:D
If it wasn't for these frustrating restrictions I'd be heading up your way to see my parents up at Kilmore.
Perfect excuse to witness the first potential storm action of the season. ;)
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
QldTwister
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Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:31 pm

Great to see the record drought areas of the last 3 years in E SA, W NSW and far NW Vic look to get a nice soaking Fri and Saturday, some could see 50 to 100mm but its fast moving so higher totals will be very isolated.

Such a nice day today, cooler clouds and light showers and rain tomorrow but nothing more than about 5 to 10mm

Saturday looking very wet in the Mallee great news and that will move south during the day but weaken as it gets to the south, still should see some rain and stroms for most of the state central could do well

Should get a good band of rain and stroms on Monday, then showers for days in the south for much of next week.
Many will still see 20-40mm by Thursday next week

Lots of weather to get through Warm Fri to Mon.
Fri and Saturday could be real warm in parts of the state first 30c should somwhere in the NW
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:56 am

Foggy and spitty morning up here in the Nongs. 0.8mm in the gauge. Looks like being a messy day of weather with light rain spreading east.

Warm Friday and Saturday with showers and storms later, particularly in the north.
snowfall
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Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:10 am

0.4mm overnight. Currently 9c, dark, and drizzling here, though it's not getting picked up by the radar.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:17 am

Forecast models have backed off a lot this morning. Our MTD is 10mm which is terrible for September. Our Mean is 54mm and I doubt we will get anywhere near that.
tonycynic
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Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:44 pm

Looks like there is some more rain inbound, question is, will it get over the ranges?
StratoBendigo
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Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:25 pm

All the forecast models now have it as a very mediocre 5-15 mm system for here. Just can't take a trick this month....
Gordon
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Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:40 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:25 pm
All the forecast models now have it as a very mediocre 5-15 mm system for here. Just can't take a trick this month....
Looks good for you to me? BOM forecasting 15-30mm Saturday alone, with 'possible heavy falls' in the Bendigo forecast?

Very dynamic system so who knows what the eventual outcome will be, but right now Bendigo looks better off than us!
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