Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020

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Horts
Cumulonimbus
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:25 am

StratoBendigo wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:39 pm
EC for Monday is ummm.... Bonkers.
So is GFS.

Check the rainfall and Thunderstorm Probabilities on Stormcast, holy sh*t :o
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:08 am

Latest GFS sad for Tassie - total fizzer of an event. Hope it changes
Sean
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:01 pm

Asides from the smoke haze, it’s quite sunny, which is very good where storms are concerned

Edit: first cells are starting to emerge. The current conditions are conducive to fairly severe storms
Last edited by Sean on Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Jake Smethurst
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:38 pm

Very complex day overall, but it won't take much for thunderstorms to develop today. Exceptionally unstable with a very moist airmass. Of course focus will be particularly near and just ahead of the trough where forcing is greatest, but the atmosphere is that unstable thunderstorms require little forcing (i.e. ranges/mountains will enable development, minor wind variability will enable development etc.).

As HB mentioned above, we could see some quite significant falls from storms today, especially if they train over a certain areas (slow movement overall), generally anywhere is at risk of flash flooding. Outflow of storms could also be strong today so damaging winds likely if they become organised enough. Large hail less of a hazard but of course can't be entirely ruled out. And EC indicating they'll be quite lightning active today, something to be mindful of.

Of course, as is tradition it seems, peak risk for Melbourne likely during that peak-hour period on the roads.

Looking ahead, focus of storms will shift to the east/northeast tomorrow with the trough. Interestingly, EC is hinting at a bit of band of rain extending towards Melbourne from the northeast tomorrow morning. It appears the ranges will hamper it's movement, but the far north/east suburbs may see some early morning rain if EC is correct. On the weekend, trough re-establishes more generally across the state, so relatively unstable conditions returning to mainly central/eastern districts. And anything could happen Monday onwards with low placement of course key. :)
Jake - Site Owner & Admin/Senior AWF Forecaster
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hillybilly
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:02 pm

Jeepers it's tropical (and smoky) out there. Trough line is sat just west of Geelong. Moving slowly, so mid to late afternoon through central and northcentral so about "perfect" timing for storms. Some big cells already up near Avalon.

Would tend to expect a large band of storms to develop near the trough.
wolfcat
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:05 pm

The storm near Avalon went from 2 lightning strikes to this in 20 minutes..

Image
wolfcat
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:22 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Melbourne Area
for HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of Port Phillip waters and Geelong and Bellarine Peninsula Local Warning Areas.

Issued at 1:19 pm Wednesday, 15 January 2020.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21035.shtml

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Tassiedave
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:25 pm

OK so in today’s forecast the least likely place in Tassie to get a storm was the central north. As I sit in my backyard here looking west we are about to get one
Dane
Supercell
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:26 pm

That storm NE of Geelong developed very quickly.
Only Storm around at the moment.
Fearing I might be a bit too far West to get much.
Horts
Cumulonimbus
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:35 pm

Storm crossing the pay looks to be packing a punch!
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:38 pm

In a tent v close to St Leonard's
Boys just hit back was in kayaks looking for squid..
could be interesting arvo..
belleraine pen.
Sean
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:44 pm

Holly cow that cell over the bay grew fast and strong. Mornington could be in for a wallop and a half
stevco123
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:01 pm

VEERRYYY slow mover that Avalon storm.

Development in the next hour should explode...
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
stevco123
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:02 pm

Sean wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:44 pm
Holly cow that cell over the bay grew fast and strong. Mornington could be in for a wallop and a half
Don't worry about Mornington. Seems to be edging slightly North-east towards me and you
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Macca2395
Cumulus
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:03 pm

Here we go! It looks like it’s really starting to bubble to my west on the radar.

That cell moving through the bay is a beauty.
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:05 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:02 pm
Sean wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:44 pm
Holly cow that cell over the bay grew fast and strong. Mornington could be in for a wallop and a half
Don't worry about Mornington. Seems to be edging slightly North-east towards me and you
It’s so slow moving, I wonder if it’ll lose most of it’s energy before reaching the other side.
Horts
Cumulonimbus
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:10 pm

That cell just got a baby brother!
tonycynic
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:11 pm

Line seems to be forming from Swan Hill to Cape Otway, is that the trough? off home to clear out the gutters while I still can.
Dane
Supercell
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:24 pm

Currently 34/14 here.
Storm to my SW cant hear any thunder though - too far away?
A Line of storms seems to be developing not far to my west
Still a few holes in the Line lets hope it fills in and develops further
before it reaches here.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:26 pm

Trough is West of us and consolidating quickly. Not a fast mover.
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