VIC - Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May 2019

[hillybilly]

Max of 4C for us in FC today and now down to 2C. No one home to report, but suspect we've had a bit of snow. Hoping it kicks on after I get home (in about 30 minutes). Set up is pretty good for us now with a cyclonic SWly flow established so showers shouldn't be an issue. The temperatures are a bit marginal (2C is about the cut off for proper snow) but if it comes heavy enough then that can easily chill things another degree.

Precip on the lighter side so far, with just 4mm.

[JasmineStorm]

Range has shredded most it for here but just had a little bit of sleet before. Would have been some good snow showers SW from here above 500m. Will be interesting to see how the night pans out south of the range, could see the bay effect kick in at times.

Looks like Melbourne's coldest day since May 2000 is on the cards. Aireys inlet is still a chance to set its coldest max May record.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Long time since last post, different location now too, said 4c on the dashboard is the car, in East Warburton, surely snow isn't far from here, should be getting most of the hills and peaks across the valley. I'm only 230m asl.

[Sean]

The showers keep breaking apart and/or dying before reaching here.

Can't complain though. Good thunderstorm with hail.

This weather is completely diametric to just a week ago. Imagine if this trend held right through winter?

[Gordon]

It's certainly on par with May 2000, and if we get the follow-up snow/ low temps that are looking increasingly likely from Sunday, it will be the best start to the snow season since??

[hillybilly]

It's certainly on par with May 2000, and if we get the follow-up snow/ low temps that are looking increasingly likely from Sunday, it will be the best start to the snow season since??

Not as cold or as significant as that one (yet). In May 2000 I got stuck at Narbethong with an epic blizzard. There was about 30cm at 500m. I drove through Marysville and there was about 10cm in the early evening. A month later I was driving near Cooma and there was still feet deep snow drifts in the paddocks about about 1000m.

Btw here’s good report on that event. Snow down to 55m! http://www.australianweathernews.com/ne ... 00528.html

Apparently we had a flurry here about 5pm when temperature dipped to 2.5C. Radar looks pretty good for more soon

[StratoBendigo]

May 2000 was colder and had a 5 day barrage from the SW if I recall correctly. But next week looks like more snow for the Alps and it could be the deepest snow for Queens Birthday weekend in decades (perhaps since 1960).

[Gordon]

It's certainly on par with May 2000, and if we get the follow-up snow/ low temps that are looking increasingly likely from Sunday, it will be the best start to the snow season since??

Not as cold or as significant as that one (yet). In May 2000 I got stuck at Narbethong with an epic blizzard. There was about 30cm at 500m. I drove through Marysville and there was about 10cm in the early evening. A month later I was driving near Cooma and there was still feet deep snow drifts in the paddocks about about 1000m.

Btw here’s good report on that event. Snow down to 55m! http://www.australianweathernews.com/ne ... 00528.html

Apparently we had a flurry here about 5pm when temperature dipped to 2.5C. Radar looks pretty good for more soon

Should have clarified - was talking about alpine snow (consensus seems to be its a May 2000 standard) not low level snow, for which May 2000 was definitely ahead. A lot of all-time records for May maximums broken though, so certainly cold!

Btw, very strange day here snow-wise. We had good falls off and on all day at 2 to 2.5C, then late afternoon the temperature got lower (1.5-1C) the duration of precipitation got longer, yet the snow went sleety/ almost to rain?? It is very mysterious stuff, this low level snow

[Timster]

Low temps and good rainfall all around! Very wintery indeed.
So, maxed out across today at 5.9, and rainfall last few days another 38mm bringing me up to 171mm for the month. Highest May rainfall here since I have been here (2007) by more than double!

[stevco123]

May 2000 also had that rugby game played in the snow in Canberra. Unconfirmed reports of flurries around the suburbs of Melbourne with frequent graupel and heavy snow in low areas.

In my opinion, the only other one that compares to may 2000 is August 2005. Everything else is your typical stuff in all other events.

I must say the weather today is only noteable for the cold temperatures in partly cloudy skies.

Rainwise, it's boring. Only short lived hail. Here's hoping it gets a little interesting tonight.

[hillybilly]

Down to 2.2C here atm with alternating snow, graupel and sleet Had a few heavy bursts of proper snow. Was enough at one point to put a thin layer on the car, but all gone pretty quick.

Bit surprised with this event as the low levels aren’t overly cold (850Ts around -3) but the cold is obviously deep and the showers as a result quite intense. Guess being close to the solstice also means that there isn’t a lot of low level warmth.

We even had one big rumble earlier. Now up to near 8mm for today so creeping up.

Btw the real standout for May cold outbreaks is 31 May 1977 (max of 8.3 in Melbourne, 3.2 in Ballarat). I haven’t found photos for the Dandenongs but the Mt Dandenong max was something like 2C and it was cold enough for snow for about 36 hours with frequent showers. Friend who lived here reckons there was about a foot of snow around the tops of Mt Dandenong. Friend in Belgrave said they got the day off school because of snow. Darn... wish I was around to see it

[Blackie]

Heading to Mansfield this afternoon experienced heavy snow falling about 4 kms from Marysville at 640m ( according to Siri). I was just beautiful.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

6.6c
11.4mm
Frogs croaking,
Radar says more to come
Very still, perfect rain rate.

[hillybilly]

Cold rainy, haily, foggy night 19mm in the gauge. Event on 61mm, MTD about 135mm. Still need about 10mm to our monthly average. Going to be a close run thing City similar with about 55mm, and needs about 5mm. Funny it feels terribly wet, and yet it is just on average or a tad below around much of central Vic (west/north central are doing better ).

Nice and showery for another 36 hours. Should add up in the usual swly favoured spots.

Starting lose track of the rain in Walkerville, but it’s somewhere around 150mm for the week. We did score 200mm in ~May last year so can turn it on down there, but still a bumper event.

Next system holding in models for late on the weekend. Looks wet. EC and GFSV3 have a further 25-75mm for much of southern and mountain areas as a strong front cuts off into a deep low. Could then be a third front and low about Thursday. With the positive IOD in place the more rain we can get the better as it will increasingly stack the odds against rainfall for us

[Gordon]

First sprinkles here; looking forward to a week of rain days (can we crack 200mm for May?) but not so much the cold and wind.

So close - another 6.5mm in the gauge this morning, brings us to 195.5mm mtd. Our 22 year 'any month' record is 2.5mm away.

And yes, we definitely need to bank what we can now after such a dry start and the threat of a positive IOD (my least favourite climate feature here.) At least this month shows what is possible against some ominous climate signals.

A bitter night, 1C right through and no warmer now.

[StratoBendigo]

Frost here this morning with a minimum of 0c.

Next week looks more like a Southern Vic system. Great to see so much snow on the Alps though.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

2.5c as I left East Warby this morning, 3.5c in Warby now, not sure whether snow or just fog, but looks like there may be a dusting on the tree tops about 400m up the mountain

[Supercellimpact]

Frost here this morning with a minimum of 0c.

Next week looks more like a Southern Vic system. Great to see so much snow on the Alps though.

Been frothing at the bit to go skiing. Looks so good

[JasmineStorm]

First sprinkles here; looking forward to a week of rain days (can we crack 200mm for May?) but not so much the cold and wind.

So close - another 6.5mm in the gauge this morning, brings us to 195.5mm mtd. Our 22 year 'any month' record is 2.5mm away.

Incredible months worth My 113mm is rather light on

You'll be interested to know that after the years and millions spent on the BoM's climate model Access S, they were projecting around a 15 to 25% chance that we would have more than 50mm for May. The alarming part is that this Access S run was on 20 April at which stage the MJO and SAM indicators were going off the scale as you were aware on my 18 April thread http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 20#p109842

Anyway, what month

[Gordon]

The thing that really bothers me JS, is the masses continue to treat these Outlooks as more-or-less fact. Major decisions, like whether or not to turn on the desal, are it least in part based on these Outlooks. For example this article https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/ ... s/11120566 has some good information, but half way down it just parrots the BOM Outlook as if it's inevitable.

Anyway, back on topic and we've scored another 1mm this morning, 1.5mm to go...