Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

Climate change

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.
Post Reply
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2887
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Climate change

Post by Gordon »

We need a dedicated thread for discussion about climate change to prevent current weather threads from being derailed.

Go your hardest here!
User avatar
Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3145
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:05 pm
Location: FTG
Contact:

Re: Climate change

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

who changed it...
t
tonycynic
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:57 pm
Location: Mount Evelyn (h),Donvale (w)

Re: Climate change

Post by tonycynic »

Well I might as well step up. The overwhelming consensus among climatologists seems to be that the planet is warming, the climate is changing more rapidly than ever (except for extreme events like volcanoes or meteor strikes) and humans are the most likely cause. It is a problem that we as a whole should be doing more about and failure to act will cost us a lot more than working to solve the problems. Calling out people and organisations that are working to deny ACC or misrepresenting the science is a minimum of what we should be doing.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4978
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Climate change.

Post by hillybilly »

Probably moved beyond consensus now to become peoples lived experience. Most people now get that things are different, and there’s no real normal. This is at just 1.3C with another 0.2C happening basically every decade for the next (at least) 50 years.

Btw there are a few ways in which climate change impacts during La Niña. First is it adds to the positive SAM (climate change has led to a marked shift towards positive SAM) and La Niña adds to this. It means a dry summer in southwest Tasmania, but adds to the rainfall and flood risk for the east coast and much of inland Australia. You basically have the natural and human drivers aligned.

It also increases the available water vapour. Every degree of global warming increases atmospheric humidity by 7%. That 7% also increases energy released in heavy precipitation events by 7%, so the combined effect is the very heaviest rainfall can increases by about 14%.

The increases in humidity also leads to slowing weather systems. Rain events are more likely to get stuck. That effect is about 5% per degree of global warming.

We are at about 1.3C so the new peak rainfalls are about 20% larger than they were, and the weather systems prone to move about 7% slower. These are global numbers so some places will see more or less.

The final factor if you are close to sea level is the 25cm of sea level rise. If your river is in flood that retards the flow and near the river mouth basically raises the water level by 25cm. That 25cm is increasing by 4-5mm/yr now.

None of this needs fancy theory. It comes from very simple principles known about for decades.
W
Wilko
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1492
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Moorabbin & Highett, Vic

Re: Climate change

Post by Wilko »

Great read...thanks HB
t
tonycynic
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:57 pm
Location: Mount Evelyn (h),Donvale (w)

Re: Climate change

Post by tonycynic »

Assuming everyone has seen this but just in case. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... SApp_Other
User avatar
Petros
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2001
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Re: Climate change

Post by Petros »

A very interesting article posted by Martin Armstrong on the Beaufort Gyre around the Nth Pole - its cyclic changes, and its potential to disrupt the Gulf Stream:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/worl ... s-a-fraud/
User avatar
Petros
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2001
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Re: Climate change.

Post by Petros »

hillybilly wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 9:10 pm

The final factor if you are close to sea level is the 25cm of sea level rise. If your river is in flood that retards the flow and near the river mouth basically raises the water level by 25cm. That 25cm is increasing by 4-5mm/yr now.
HB can you show us this reality using the Lakes Entrance tidal data over say, last 30 years?

....or are you relying on those models, proven to be wrong all the time?
t
tonycynic
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:57 pm
Location: Mount Evelyn (h),Donvale (w)

Re: Climate change

Post by tonycynic »

Would have thought there would be a little more discussion here given the current situation. Guess this forum has run its course.
User avatar
Petros
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2001
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Re: Climate change

Post by Petros »

When they are now telling our children that it is no longer climate warming, no longer climate change, no longer climate emergency, ....but now is promoted as climate BOILING. Most rational people, many like me with daily temperature/rainfall records going back 40+ years, are realizing that this is now a climate cult.

Its all about scaring the population, google the World Economic Forum - agenda 2030.

Its been pushed as a new religion, ...pushed repetitively into our younger generation by relentless repetition by the school and university system, the globalist owned media, aka The Brave New World.

I now accept you cant tell those hypnotised by the cult to observe what's actually happening (not happening) outside their windows - we are not drowning, the dams (had they been built) would be full in Australia now, we are not experiencing abnormal fire season cycles etc.

The typical answer to those realists like me is to "trust the science" (scientology) - ignore what you observe. Clutch to any iota of climate events that bolster the narrative - to keep us all scared. To justify ridiculous CO2 reduction initiatives that are only designed to send the majority of Western Civilizations broke, in synchronism, in 6 years time. To usher in the Great Reset.
t
tonycynic
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:57 pm
Location: Mount Evelyn (h),Donvale (w)

Re: Climate change

Post by tonycynic »

Great reset is Alex Jones garbage. Seeing this not being called out is enough for me. I’m out.
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2936
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Re: Climate change

Post by stevco123 »

tonycynic wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 7:44 pm Great reset is Alex Jones garbage. Seeing this not being called out is enough for me. I’m out.
Yep, agreed. I can debate global warming with anyone at any time, and am happy to get views/points, but definitely don't believe in any of the extreme conspiracy garbage such as great reset, 15 minute cities, flat earth, HAARP etc
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
User avatar
Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3145
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:05 pm
Location: FTG
Contact:

Re: Climate change

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

HAARP conspiracy ?
Research facility in Fairbanks how is this a conspiracy, and I’m lead to believe there placed all around the globe, sorry wrong word, World..
15 minute cities, nope they seem to be called 20 locally here.. plenty of documentation on these also..
seems it’s unfolding pretty swiftly if notice is taken..
Post Reply