2021 Possible upcoming weather events

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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Petros
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Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:43 pm

Looking out forward for rain prospects for the western and Nth central areas of Vic, that need rain now:

EC

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AccG

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Nice to see the chance of a broadscale low pressure system to follow the heels of HB’s current thread for rain chances this week. Something to watch.
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Petros
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Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:32 pm

Latest model runs from EC, GFS & CMC have downplayed rain prospects from next weeks "long travelled" low pressure system, CMC is typical:

Image

Those at Corryong will be on the watch though!
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Didjman
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Sat Jul 17, 2021 5:23 pm

According to EC, there is a warming trend over Antarctica @ 10Hpa(starting over the area south of Oz) in the next 10 days. So far, temps increasing by 10C. Could lead to decent cold outbreaks in 2-3 weeks time.
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Petros
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Sat Jul 17, 2021 6:52 pm

Looks likely on latest model runs.

Perth hydrologists will be ruing the decision in the late 90's, to "manage" dam inflow estimates based on only a rolling 10 year average by the end of this month IMO.

Too many listened to "our Ross" IMO.
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Didjman
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Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:29 am

Here are a couple of images from ECMWF. Temps at 10HPA over Antarctica:

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Clearly a warming event appears to be underway over the Australian part of Antarctica. Possibly leading to a significant cold outbreak 2nd half of August.
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Didjman
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Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:33 am

Image

This forecast for 2nd August shows the trend continuing. Note increase in temps above the pole also.
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