2018/2019 Possible upcoming weather events

[Gordon]

Currently a decent negative SAM and a MJO pulse in late April around the eastern Indian Ocean. This type of set up favours the spawning of mid latitude upper and surface cut off lows probably around 2 weeks from now in early May.

Now safe to say you picked this event very nicely JS!

[JasmineStorm]

Currently a decent negative SAM and a MJO pulse in late April around the eastern Indian Ocean. This type of set up favours the spawning of mid latitude upper and surface cut off lows probably around 2 weeks from now in early May.

Now safe to say you picked this event very nicely JS!

Thanks Gordon The Autumn break at last

[Gordon]

You should be doing the Climate Outlooks for BOM .

Here's some of their latest outlook, issued on 26 April:

Drier May in the east, wetter May–July for western and central Australia
May is likely to be drier than average in eastern SA, Victoria, northern and eastern Tasmania, and both NSW and southern Queensland to the west of the Great Dividing Range.

'

[JasmineStorm]

You should be doing the Climate Outlooks for BOM .

Here's some of their latest outlook, issued on 26 April:

Drier May in the east, wetter May–July for western and central Australia
May is likely to be drier than average in eastern SA, Victoria, northern and eastern Tasmania, and both NSW and southern Queensland to the west of the Great Dividing Range.

'

Its an astonishing miss by the BoM. That MJO phase was clearly well outside the circle of calmness for early May when it was approaching the eastern area of the Indian Ocean and the SAM had been significantly negative in mid April. They have taken the 1 dimensional sloppy approach of looking just at ocean temperatures I guess.

[Skywalker]

They have taken the 1 dimensional sloppy approach of looking just at ocean temperatures I guess.

No surprises there Jasmine as they tend to take a 1 dimensional approach to a lot of things they do, especially forecasts.

[Didjman]

There appears to be some warming in the lower stratosphere nth of Antarctica between Africa and Oz. Nothing too drastic atm, but possibly giving us a cold outbreak mid June (if I am reading this right). JS??

[JasmineStorm]

There appears to be some warming in the lower stratosphere nth of Antarctica between Africa and Oz. Nothing too drastic atm, but possibly giving us a cold outbreak mid June (if I am reading this right). JS??

There is strong warming signal from the GEFS ensemble in the upper stratospheric polar vortex in the next week. Might need a few more days to see if it still likely to eventuate.

[Didjman]

Thx for the info JS, I will keep an eye on that link you sent me

[Didjman]

There is currently a substantial warming anomaly at 10HPA between Africa and Oz:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 10anim.gif

A different depiction is at:

https://www.stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d

This could lead to a significant cold outbreak around end of month.
Thoughts JS and others??

[JasmineStorm]

There is currently a substantial warming anomaly at 10HPA between Africa and Oz:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 10anim.gif

A different depiction is at:

https://www.stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d

This could lead to a significant cold outbreak around end of month.
Thoughts JS and others??

Yes, Peter well spotted but those big warm anomalies are occurring over the mid latitudes and not the polar cap, so the large cold snap scenario (strong neg SAM) is not in play for now. I can't see any clear signals at the moment, mainly due to the GFS upgrade. GFS is literally showing an unbelievable cold temp anomaly in the upper stratosphere in a weeks time. NASA doesn't show this which to me looks like GFS has a cold bias issue in the new model, which also affects the ensemble. I'm keeping a close watch either way

[Didjman]

Thanks JS for the explanation. That first link you sent me doesn't depict well where the temp anomaly is (over the pole or not). The animated gif link below (regularly updated) gives a better idea:)
Thanks again for your sharing of knowledge!
Peter

[crikey]

About half the ensemble members forecasting a very steep drop in the AAO. That will be nice change for the mid latitude , the midriff of Oz. Increased troughing, more dynamic weather and increased chances of snow potential
Here's hoping

[JasmineStorm]

yes, spot on crikey.

The warming signal in the stratosphere around the polar region is becoming clearer over the last 2 weeks. Seems like the tropopause is lowering and wind anomalies are appearing between the jet stream to 700 hPa in the coming week. Mid July could see a big cold snap

@Peter, 2 warming cycles near 60 degrees south now
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

[crikey]

Thanks for your info' Jstorm'. I will check out those other variables.
The first of the enhanced mid latitude troughing is appearing on ACCg this week
An excursion of the westerly belt up to a massive northerly latitude of 25s forms a strong trough later this week peaking on the SW corner of WA and northward.
ACCg is forecasting a very strong frontal band with very high winds and precipitation over the SW corner of WA yet again.Storms may be embedded
This should include Perth as well. This will be a severe weather event. The 4th July, is an apt description, aka fireworks', this thursday
forecast gradient winds link
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... model=CSCG

[Didjman]

@Peter, 2 warming cycles near 60 degrees south now
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

Hi JS,
I have had bookmarked for a week, the 10, 30 and 50mb gifs which I check out daily I am watching with interest the 50mb link especially, and the possiblity of a mid month cold snap.