2021 Possible upcoming weather events

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

Moderator: Rivergirl

Post Reply
User avatar
Petros
Supercell
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:43 pm

Looking out forward for rain prospects for the western and Nth central areas of Vic, that need rain now:

EC

Image

AccG

Image

Nice to see the chance of a broadscale low pressure system to follow the heels of HB’s current thread for rain chances this week. Something to watch.
User avatar
Petros
Supercell
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:32 pm

Latest model runs from EC, GFS & CMC have downplayed rain prospects from next weeks "long travelled" low pressure system, CMC is typical:

Image

Those at Corryong will be on the watch though!
User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1933
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Sat Jul 17, 2021 5:23 pm

According to EC, there is a warming trend over Antarctica @ 10Hpa(starting over the area south of Oz) in the next 10 days. So far, temps increasing by 10C. Could lead to decent cold outbreaks in 2-3 weeks time.
User avatar
Petros
Supercell
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Sat Jul 17, 2021 6:52 pm

Looks likely on latest model runs.

Perth hydrologists will be ruing the decision in the late 90's, to "manage" dam inflow estimates based on only a rolling 10 year average by the end of this month IMO.

Too many listened to "our Ross" IMO.
User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1933
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:29 am

Here are a couple of images from ECMWF. Temps at 10HPA over Antarctica:

Image


Image

Clearly a warming event appears to be underway over the Australian part of Antarctica. Possibly leading to a significant cold outbreak 2nd half of August.
User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1933
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:33 am

Image

This forecast for 2nd August shows the trend continuing. Note increase in temps above the pole also.
User avatar
Petros
Supercell
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:31 pm

Interesting, well for the first part of August GFS is showing a low pressure system to traverse from Perth to Victoria, to arrive later next weekend. It also dreams up a high pressure zone to develop over the Territory and traverse to QLD mid latitude coastal border a day ahead of the low systems arrival in Vic. This would advect a lot of tropical moisture from the increasingly active Indian Ocean to SE Aus at about the right time.

Something to watch either fritter away in the westerly belt, or perhaps even enhance rain in Vic, .....all about the timing eh?:

Image
User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1933
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:16 pm

I am closely watching the Polar Vortex for signs of distortion or splitting - that is when the 2-3 week clock starts ticking!
Post Reply