The Australian Weather Forum

Yeah, they show massive storms and instability, then change to next to nothing, then massive again and today have backed off again, they cant seem to make their mind up - just have to wait and see what happens! Don’t believe it until you see it on radar, and even then assume it’ll flatten out or sp...

hillybilly wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:11 am Apparently I’m moving to about the least stormy place in Australia but TBH I don’t believe the records.

Who knows, maybe climate change will work in your favour there.

Was not expecting to see such a colourful radar after looking at the most recent sounding. Lots of dark red and black out west on radar.

I like a good rain event. Yeah storms are great but I’ll enjoy a solid rain band any day. Beats the hell out of a drought! Maybe next time enough heat and humidity will build up before the lifting mechanism arrives and we’ll finally see some widespread storms. I have a good feeling about the upcomin...

Latest skew t indicates a fair amount of instability this afternoon in Melbourne. Wouldn’t be surprised if there was a few rumbles with that rain band as it moves through.

Areas of convergence to the north and west of the city resulting in some localised downpours. Could be a few flashes after dark, and because it’s so dynamic synoptically who knows where they’ll end up.

If you start feeling the need to come here and complain that Melbourne isn’t currently being bombarded with black-cored supercells because the BOM said there was a chance of a thunderstorm yesterday, please remember the following words of wisdom:

Latest skew t looks pretty marginal in terms of instability for Melbourne, but doesn’t quite tell the whole story as we are expecting wrap around and lows popping up every which way in the next 12 or so hours. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a few thunderstorms pop up as the afternoon and evenin...

If you want reliable thunderstorms, you’re living in the wrong city. Darwin may be more up your alley.

Unfortunately, the IOD has fizzled a bit and doesn't really meet the threshold for a negative IOD anymore. Maybe it will swing back a little, but the window for this is getting smaller. I will definitely take a neutral/weakening negative IOD over the truly abysmal, historically high positive IOD we...

The negative IOD is only particularly useful for our part of the world if we have fronts linking up to a northwest cloudband, and those have been in short supply recently (I guess because of the SAM). The latest climate driver update from the BOM indicates the current negative IOD only just reaches ...

Latest climate driver update from the BOM indicates if a La Niña develops this summer, it is likely to be weak. More likely is a negative-neutral phase. Unfortunate, but at least it’s not an El Niño!

All signs of a strong La Nina coming up. Wait until the wet season up north gets going in about 6 weeks All the model ensembles I’ve seen indicate more of a weak La Niña developing (or even just a slightly negative neutral phase) but I would be very happy to be proven wrong. A few are predicting a ...

Off topic but the scenes coming out of China's flood situation are horrendous. In Zhengzhou which gets about as much rain as Melbourne annually 200mm fell in one hour and 450 in 24 hours. They get that much during their wet/monsoon season though, so I’m sure they get a far higher frequency of those...

Who else is having their fingers crossed for the potential double whammy of an (admittedly weak) La Niña along with a negative IOD this spring, as the BOM’s climate outlook suggests is a possibility? The last storm season was an absolute shocker down here in Melbourne despite La Niña, probably the l...

hillybilly wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 5:07 am There are plenty of places where people can engage on climate scepticism. Not sure this is the spot.

Hear, hear

Total Totals on latest Melbourne Skew-T at 53, so a bit of conditional instability about central areas

This is my kind of weather. If it was like this every day I wouldn’t mind one bit. I just love rain, and it has been pelting down all day here in Box Hill. So relaxing!

That brief thunderstorm that just went through Box Hill was tied for the best light show we have had for the last 12 months.

Very slim pickings recently...

The latest Skew-T from the BOM has higher instability values than I have seen for Melbourne in the last six months, at least as far as I can recall.

That said the 2020/2021 spring/summer was a pretty dismal “storm season”, so that doesn’t mean much.