The Australian Weather Forum

EDIT.. Also have a problem with BOM headlin stating drier than normal for southern VIC and Tasmania when the probability is 45%. Surely you cannot form a headline like that when the probability is neither historically highly positive or negative. Isn't that foolish speculation or at least not convi...

The 4-week forecasts from the EC ensemble are currently suggesting moderate probabilities of a fairly big cool signal spreading across much of the continent later this month (between about the 21st and 27th), particularly into southwestern parts of SE Australia. The probabilities for enhanced rainfa...

I agree, absolutely mindblowing photos of the tsunami-shaped structure there! Extremeinstability.com has always been a great site for such photos but these ones are the best I've ever seen.

Since the BoM seasonal outlooks are based on historical correlations between rainfall/temps and SST's, there are no corresponding maps showing sea level pressure patterns that cause certain setups. But the maps that indicate how much each ocean is contributing towards rainfall/temps are showing that...

Just a copy of a post I made on another forum: Still on track for a very interesting day here in SE QLD with progs still suggesting the potential for some very violent thunderstorms for parts of eastern QLD (particularly the southeastern third of the state)/far northern NSW. There's already been a r...

I might also add that the setup from overnight into tomorrow (Sat) is still looking explosively dangerous for many areas of QLD/northern NSW and favourable for the chance of lots of large hail (huge amount of forecast hail CAPE), strong winds (mid to low level jet) and mabe even a small tornado (ver...

I'm expecting the heavier activity to be focussed a bit further inland and to the NW of Brisbane today compared to yesterday due to our region being in a slightly less unstable region between the mid/upper trough that passed across us yesterday and the next big upstream one. Still expecting to see a...

Yep, we had a widespread outbreak of storms this arvo here. One person killed so far when a tree crashed onto their car. Many were slow-moving and backbuilding occurred while there were some right-movers as well. Still expecting some more activity in the general SE QLD region late into the evening a...

Pretty much johnno. But would treat weak probabilities with caution at these ranges because it doesn't always mean there's no strong forcing synoptics for wet conditions. Sometimes you can have situations where just over half the ensemble's members could be going for very wet conditions and just und...

The 4-week forecasts from the EC ensemble currently suggests weak probabilities (very faint wet signal) of higher than normal rainfall extending down from the tropics through inland eastern Oz to Vic between the 17th and 24th of this month. Looking at its MSLP probability map, there's higher than no...

Thankfully we haven't had an excessively severe fire danger here in SE QLD. Spring and very early summer is traditionally our fire season here whereas it's towards the end of the Dry further north. However our susceptibility to widespread vigorous bushfires here is a bit lower than that of say Vic b...

Doppler wind data derived from the Melbourne (Laverton) radar at 1pm also shows a fair bit of low level shear with N'lies/27kt at a height of 700m grading to NNW'lies/35kt at 1km and NW'lies/38kt by 2km.

Would also be worth remembering that long-lived cells can sometimes advect out a fair distance out of the most favourable regions into less favourable regions given the right conditions. They can also be distinct right or left-movers and take a path towards areas which didn't initally appear to be i...

Still looking like a very real threat of big hail and microbursts/strong gusts for NNW Vic and inland NSW. There's favourable ingredients for hail - an impressive amount of hail CAPE (the amount of CAPE in the hail growth zone, typically between around 300 and 600hpa), wetbulb freezing levels in the...

For what it's worth, the Bureau's thunderstorm forecast guidance system (NTFGS) which is based on ACCESS-A, is currently (00z Tue run) painting favourable signals for supercells, large hail and damaging wind gusts over parts of southeast SA across into far W/SW VIC, North Central/Northern Country/Ma...

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #11- 4 2011 September 26 at 03:00 p.m. MDT (2011 September 26 2100 UTC) **** EARLY AUTUMN GEOMAGNETIC STORM **** A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from NOAA...

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07 Serial Number: 33 Issue Time: 2011 Sep 26 1708 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected Valid From: 2011 Sep 26 1715 UTC Valid To: 2011 Sep 26 2100 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme Past, present and future ...

Ken, l noticed you said you designed those supercell forecast charts.WOW! Is BSCH your web site and part of your employment or is it an independent forecast? I developed the algorithms for those charts but BSCH is run by Ben Quinn and Mike Manning. Those charts are automatically generated without a...

Some pretty strong winds (up to 30-40kt sustained) currently being suggested to spread across parts of central and inland eastern Australia with the vigorous trough or front sweeping across midweek. Could kick up dust over some of the drier areas in my view. The GFS scenario for severe storm potenti...

Typhoon Nesat which is currently east of the Philipines at time of writing this, is looking ominous as it closes in on the northern Philipines. It's expected to continue intensifying and make landfall around Tuesday before weakening then reintensifying somewhat as it continues heading WNW out overwa...