The Australian Weather Forum

ACCESS model suggesting a prolonged period of heat from Feb 1st to Feb 4th and possibly beyond. Late monsoon has a lot of heat on the continent ready to be dragged down.


Been watching that. Looks like we will score sea breezes and mostly easterlies in Tasmania so won’t be too bad, but inland ...

Monday looks a touch cooler. Thinking 39-41C across metro Melbourne and 31-33C across Hobart. Unpleasant spike day.

Not much rain in the offering. Monsoon is still to start (that’s a new record) so not really seeing good links to the tropics. There is little relationship between ENSO and the ...

HB never said it was the hottest summer ever. He said 2024 was the hottest year on record and 2023 was the hottest on record before that etc. So be good if you stuck to what was posted.


The basic data is freely available.

Currently this is what they show when you add the forecast…
December ...

Guess we may as well have a thread for Mondays system. Geez wish it was a look at all those storms :? but instead another hot one. Very gusty wind, with a late change. Dew points don’t drop out too badly, but still will be a dangerous fire and heat day. Temps will probably top 45C in the Mallee, low ...

Mixed bag on the rain. Good falls northern Tasmania and Gippsland, and in a few pockets around Melbourne. Was some nice cells briefly around the Essendon area and foothill suburbs in the eastern burbs, with a few spot falls in the 15-20mm range.

Now a couple of nicer days, before a stinker on ...

System firing up nicely east of Melbourne and north of Hobart :( some big falls in northern Tasmania with some spots clocking 50mm. Yet to trouble the scorer down here.

Hoping to squeeze out a few showers before a pretty unpleasant Monday. Certainly one to watch for a nasty spike in temperatures ...

Just putting this here, since the same would be done if it was a record heat/fire event despite being thousands of kilometres away. Deep snow on a beach in Florida, despite being told such events won't be happening again as recently as 2013 😁😁😁
Yeah, yeah, i know. It's not that they won't happen ...

Unfortunately each model update seems to get worse on this system. Looks good for northwest Tasmania, ok for Gippsland. Most other areas just dribbles. Think a chance that good stream showers will set up over the bay. Given the fairly southerly flow, that will probably favour the northern suburbs of ...

Finally got a proper front here this morning. Not much in it but has flushed out the hot air that’s been over TAS for a few days. It hasn’t got to the temps seen on the mainland but for here has been warm and dewpoint have been exceptional, mostly in the mid to high teens here.

Trough for tomorrow ...

Unfortunately the low is slowly fading. Just a weak trough now with a sequence of weak fronts. Not much in it :( west coast Tasmania will do ok, but that is about it.

Heat returns then on Sunday and Monday. Monday is the hot one, but front timed for around the middle of the day. It it’s later it ...

Nice to have at least something on the horizon again. Even a dust-settler would be welcome here.


Yep. Stuck in a bit of a rut atm, it feels and so much heat around the country. Half assed monsoon not helped by negative SAM. Some crazy temps to our west with Perth looking at a week of mass ...

Slowly warming up ahead of a weak trough and possible low around the middle of the week. The system is quite small and moves west to east so its latitude of formation will matter a lot. Could be locally good falls, but other places will miss out completely.

Not much showing up in the progs but chance for a trough with showers middle of this week. Will start a thread. Progs not spectacular and a bit jumpy.

Could be a rather hot start to February, but too far out to put much weight on the models.

Odd shower overnight in both Hobart and Melbourne. Not much in it. Now a pretty unexciting week ahead. Becoming quite warm. Could be a low about this time next week.

Cracking storms here this afternoon in two bands. Heaps of rumbles. Not very normal for Hobart :o . Some hefty falls in quick time. Band of burbs just south and west of the Hobart CBD scored locally over 25mm, with peak intensities as high as 10mm in 10 minutes. That’s around the 5% AEP or one in 20 ...

Warm blustery one today. Should be a band of storms develop on the change which will build as it moves east. Patchy so will be wins and misses. Not expect a lot, but might be locally 5-15mm.

Humid drizzly morning here. Not much in it but bit odd weather. Winds flip northerly and a warm to hot 24 hours ahead. Front middle of tomorrow will have some showers and storms with gusty winds, but not widespread. That system then forms a big cutoff in the Tasman Sea which puts us into a long ...

Not much change on the progs for the second part. Looks mainly a Tasmanian system with the low passing very close to Hobart. Hot air, but timing means Victoria mostly missed a hot day. Near the river and NSW will be hot.

Real mixed bag around Hobart. Over 50mm on the slopes of Kunanyi/Mt Wellington, but on 1 or 2mm on the coast strip. From after Fern Tree to Taroona which are about 6km as the crow flies, the rainfall went from near 40mm to just 2mm. Lots of rumbles and shelf clouds.

12mm at home which is welcome ...

Huge storms around Hobart’s hill and southern suburbs. Rumbling for a couple of hours and locally up to 40mm. At home copped a few cells but not the cores. 7mm so far. Radar is pulsing so expecting plenty more to come.

Looks very good for eastern Vic, though some severe storms with flash flooding.