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by hillybilly
Thu Apr 25, 2024 7:33 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: April 23-25: stronger front and possible low
Replies: 8
Views: 330

April 23-25: stronger front and possible low

Very handy 7mm here. Couple of spots locally got near 15mm, but overall delivered around 5-10mm. Great little system for northeast TAS with a few spots around an inch. Dusting of snow on Kunanyi and quite a heavy fall on Ben Lomond. Now back to southwesterly to northwesterly stream weather. A strong...
by hillybilly
Tue Apr 23, 2024 6:36 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: April 23-25: stronger front and possible low
Replies: 8
Views: 330

April 23-25: stronger front and possible low

Progs dropping the low, but still a sharp front. Unfortunately the faster movement means rain will be less, and mainly confined to the usual wet spots.

Hoping to see at least a few mms here after just 1mm in the past two weeks.

Will usher in a spell of showery westerlies.
by hillybilly
Sun Apr 21, 2024 7:00 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: April 23-25: stronger front and possible low
Replies: 8
Views: 330

April 23-25: stronger front and possible low

Thread does the coming week with a strong front which might might briefly form a low near Tasmania. System looks mild and quite windy initially, but has a nice slot of cold air behind it. It’s not tapping tropical moisture so won’t be a big rain event, but hopefully pretty widespread 10-25mm for TAS...
by hillybilly
Sun Apr 21, 2024 6:57 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another spell of high pressure: April 13-
Replies: 9
Views: 592

Another spell of high pressure: April 13-

Mild dry conditions roll on for nearly all of southern Australia. Front of sorts for next week. Looks quite cold and windy, but not a great rainfall producer. Unfortunately quite a lot of reports coming in of severe tree stress and in spots death across southern Australia now. WA is worst with terri...
by hillybilly
Fri Apr 19, 2024 6:31 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another spell of high pressure: April 13-
Replies: 9
Views: 592

Another spell of high pressure: April 13-

A mm overnight here. Fronts are just so weak atm, so away from a big hill or a warm bay there’s very little falling.

Good falls around parts of central Victoria, which has had a remarkable run.

Front for next week is starting to get a bit shaky on the progs :(
by hillybilly
Tue Apr 16, 2024 7:15 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another spell of high pressure: April 13-
Replies: 9
Views: 592

Another spell of high pressure: April 13-

Hard to report when nothing is happening. Almost rained here a couple of times but nothing in the gauge. Some light showers around the west of TAS and coastal Vic, which will pick up a bit in the next few days.

We might get something middle of next week, but too early to be confident.
by hillybilly
Sat Apr 13, 2024 7:15 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another spell of high pressure: April 13-
Replies: 9
Views: 592

Another spell of high pressure: April 13-

One of those threads you have between threads. Lots of big highs and weak fronts for the foreseeable future. Will make for lots of gloom in central Victoria and the odd shower, but for most of Australia is just more mild sunny days. Hard to pick individual fronts as they wiggle in timing and are all...
by hillybilly
Thu Apr 11, 2024 7:06 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: ECL and cold fronts 5 April - 12 April
Replies: 23
Views: 1083

ECL and cold fronts 5 April - 12 April

Southern Australia is really split atm. Big falls through central VIC basically centred on Melbourne and the area from Canberra to about Sydney, while SA and WA has a big dry, and TAS gets the dredges. Really stuck weather patterns, which look like sticking for another week to ten days. Struggling t...
by hillybilly
Tue Apr 09, 2024 6:31 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: ECL and cold fronts 5 April - 12 April
Replies: 23
Views: 1083

ECL and cold fronts 5 April - 12 April

Remarkable bay event for parts of central. A warm bay plus cold upper. The bay is still a remarkable 20C so 850Ts of 0C make for an exceptionally unstable airmass. Nothing much to report for TAS. A few dry coldies. Light dusting on the peaks. Tis a cold dry air ass overall. The system is destined to...
by hillybilly
Mon Apr 08, 2024 6:35 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: ECL and cold fronts 5 April - 12 April
Replies: 23
Views: 1083

ECL and cold fronts 5 April - 12 April

Nice rainy Sunday here, though just light. Most spots scored 5mm in the southeast, but heavy falls in parts of the northeast with a few spots near 50mm for the event. Rather cold week head. Westerly flow and quite dry air, so rain will be limited to coastal areas, and focused on western TAS and east...
by hillybilly
Sun Apr 07, 2024 7:00 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: ECL and cold fronts 5 April - 12 April
Replies: 23
Views: 1083

ECL and cold fronts 5 April - 12 April

Looks like a bit of a miss for most on the forum. Good for eastern VIC and northeast TAS and eastern NSW, but rest getting the scrappy showers that make it further west. Down here in southeast TAS waiting to see how far the rain pushes. Progs range from near 20mm to less than a mm across the greater...
by hillybilly
Fri Apr 05, 2024 5:59 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: ECL and cold fronts 5 April - 12 April
Replies: 23
Views: 1083

ECL and cold fronts 5 April - 12 April

Thanks for the new thread Gordon. Looks like a big event for NSW, ok for eastern Victoria and northeast TAS, and showery for quite a few days for western TAS and east central VIC. Not so much elsewhere. The southwesterly part of the system will be very cold and long lived. For quite a while it will ...
by hillybilly
Thu Apr 04, 2024 7:03 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5
Replies: 60
Views: 2174

Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5

Dipped to 3.8C this morning. Feels like we’ve gone from summer to winter with nothing in between.

Next system is already in the progs. Easterly dip becoming an east coast low. Will then be followed by a series of strong cold fronts. Heavy falls in eastern NSW, VIC and TAS. Showers elsewhere.
by hillybilly
Wed Apr 03, 2024 8:33 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5
Replies: 60
Views: 2174

Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5

Chilly 7C here this morning with a light dusting on the mountain.

Showers mostly cleared.

Cold air is headed for the NSW coast where a ECL will form. This will drift south and spread showers over the southeast from about Sunday. Might be a decent follow-up depending on the track of the low.
by hillybilly
Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:34 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5
Replies: 60
Views: 2174

Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5

Nice rainy day here with a wrap around. Finished just shy of 20mm. First proper rain in ten weeks. Very very welcome. Northern TAS did great, while the south did pretty well, mostly between 15 and 30mm. Bands were slow moving so a few spots did better, including the hilly suburbs just south of Hobar...
by hillybilly
Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:27 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5
Replies: 60
Views: 2174

Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5

Fantastic event for central Victoria and nearby parts. Two months of almost zilch then a months worth of rain in 12 hours. All very normal :? Great for northern half of Tasmania. Not so great for southern Tasmania. Progs basically picked this. Had just 6mm here so far. Freshens things up, but not en...
by hillybilly
Mon Apr 01, 2024 7:13 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5
Replies: 60
Views: 2174

Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5

Progs not changing much, a bit better for most of TAS. Probably a bit more compact for Victoria with a harder west and east boundary. It moves out of Victoria fairly quickly so totals will be a bit limited despite the heavy fall rates with storms. It loiters more over northern Tas where the biggest ...
by hillybilly
Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:36 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5
Replies: 60
Views: 2174

Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5

Classic autumn break brewing? Timings about right. Isn’t very widespread though - basically a Victorian and Tasmanian event, but not gonna complain if we all do well. Progs are holding or building totals. Most of TAS and VIC now showing 20-50mm. Far southwest of TAS and far west and east of VIC mig...
by hillybilly
Sat Mar 30, 2024 6:33 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5
Replies: 60
Views: 2174

Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5

Thread for the incoming system. Slow moving trough which develops into a deep low which passes over or near Tasmania. Showers and storms building on Monday becoming widespread and heavy. Will then slowly spread south. Expect close to a months worth of rain in central Victoria and northern Tasmania. ...
by hillybilly
Sat Mar 30, 2024 6:30 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long dry spell for most: March 22-
Replies: 13
Views: 1059

Another long dry spell for most: March 22-

Really seeing some good rain totals across 90% of the forecast models now. Yep. Looks very good for the middle half of VIC and northern TAS. Slow moving low with storms spreading to rain. Not sure about the western and eastern edges of VIC and southern TAS is in and out of the rain. Perhaps a threa...