The Australian Weather Forum

Wet 36 hours coming up. Showers and storms spreading across Victoria today and then over Tasmania overnight. Looks like locally heavy fall for particularly southern Tasmania, but also likely northeast Victoria. Thunderies look to be mainly embed with very humid conditions and lots of cloud so wouldn ...

Progs a mixed bag, but overall Friday and Saturday look ok. Pretty widespread 10-30mm. Details not agreeing well across the models.

Meanwhile a warm to hot one tomorrow and again on Friday. Early days but current shaping up as a really warm December. Not seeing much cold in the progs.

Geez real mixed back the past 24 hours. Bigs rainshadows and moisture then dropping out pre front killing the storm chances. Not quite the day that was expected, particularly city and surrounds. Pretty horrible day in the city centre tbh with hot and gusty winds. Further south did ok. Light rain ...

Great system for the west and northern slopes. Mixed bag for TAS, but rain still going. The front still sits well west so today will be thundery when we get some sunshine. Would expect severe storms are a chance with the mix of humidity, heat, trough to focus and shear. Meanwhile a perfectly normal ...

Next 24 hours looks wet for Victoria. Rain and the odd rumble overnight. Then showers and storms redeveloping on the late afternoon change. Tassie not so good for this part. Bit of repeat on Friday into Saturday. Lighthouse, you have nailed it. The fronts have slipped south. This was predicted by ...

Nothing like those numbers here sadly. 38mm for November (average 85mm). At least we beat our driest in our 28 years here of 31mm in November 2006. YTD is 511mm. Driest is 544mm, again in 2006. Hoping to better that. Week total is 40.5mm - a godsend, but a lot less than most. It’s been such an odd y ...

Fantastic event overnight. 54mm here and still drizzling. Bit over 65mm for the week. Pretty widespread 50-100mm for the area just south of Hobart. Further north Gray with 208mm has seen the highest Tasmanian December fall since 1993. This system could have easily broken that record but the low has ...

Torrential rain falling on the east coast of TAS atm. Inland from Bicheno a few spots clocked up over 100mm since 9am. TAS December record is 290mm so think that’s safe, mainly because the low is moving quite fast. SSTs off the coast here are exceptionally warm atm so lots of fuel. Adding up pretty q ...

Drizzle picking up here now after a murky humid day. ACCESS-C has about 70mm here tonight so I’ll guess we will see. Victoria basically tracked as expected. Great to see the Otways get some after a such a dry year. It’s very unstable over Victoria atm so would not be surprised to see rumbles next few ...

Big 48 hours of weather. Many areas are still dry, so sure the rain will be mostly welcome. Low is deepening rapidly and moving south and west. Heavy rain for eastern areas, though the system is fairly fast moving so it won’t persist for too long. Heavier falls will be to the north and south of the l ...

Progs not moving much. Broad trough today over the whole of eastern Australia, but not a lot of focus so showers mainly on the east coasts. Low then rapidly develops tomorrow forming near Lake Emtrance then moving rapidly southwest to be near northwest Tasmania then southwest Tasmania over 36 hours ...

Planning a storm chase Saturday; thinking NE Vic. What do people think? EC suggest Melbourne northeast through the Yarra Valley to Mansfield may be best. Pretty widespread. Down here looks torrential Saturday night with progs showing 100-200mm in 12 hours on the northeast coast. Some spots have ...

New thread for the deepening trough which forms a deep low in the southern Tasman Sea / Bass Strait before drifting southwest to be somewhere off the Tasmanian west coast later Sunday. Showers and storms will become widespread as deep tropical moisture wraps south, with heavy falls developing across ...

Drier air for Victoria today so expecting fine or nearly so. Quite hot air so will be toastie away from sea breezes. Much moister over Tasmania with heavy rain in the north and showers, drizzle and fog in the south. Friday then looks like a bit of an inbetween day before the big ECL for the weekend ...

Crazy system out there. Melbourne humidity record was comprehensively broken this morning by 0.6C, so no surprise the cells have been absolute dumpers. Lots of spots scored 25mm in around 20 minutes today, though small size meant plenty of people missed the best of it. Down here in Tas just murk and ...

Very active radar atm. Must be some flash flooding in the western burbs looking at the radar. This will slowly clear and rotate down over a Tasmania. Going to be a very wet day. Many places currently racing towards their monthly average so going to avoid the really dry month it was looking like a ...

Should be a rainy start to Wednesday for much of Victoria, while Tasmania lags a few hours with a mostly fine start then rain spreading south. Locally heavy falls, but gonna be a bit messy. Really humid, and it will be unstable behind the rainband so some rumbles. Airmass is remarkable and bumping ...

Messy day today, with early showers and the odd rumble out east then showers and storms developing in the west as the low in the bight approaches. That system has multiple centres and one then rotate down over Tasmania tomorrow. Totals look best over the eastern half of Victoria and then Tasmania ...

Rainy day for much of Victoria today, though southwest will miss out again. Drizzle for eastern Tasmania. The rain band will weaken later, as the next low develops in the bight. Tomorrow will be exceptionally humid and warm. More like a day in Brisbane… storms late, particular out west. Rainy for W ...

Great to see that rain across Victoria. Definitely needed. Ironically with a big end to the year possible, not out of the question that many parts will get average rainfall for the year, but the middle when people expect the rain was very ordinary. Guess we will see. Not much for TAS, though we’ve g ...