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by hillybilly
Sun Apr 20, 2025 4:29 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.
Replies: 26
Views: 1032

Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.

Good to see solid falls in SA this afternoon. Not everywhere but the hills behind Adelaide have done well as has the southeast. Both areas have been suffering terrible drought. Down here, 3mm so far today, 10mm for the thread. It’s calm and very humid with a 16C dewpoint atm and quite unstable ...
by hillybilly
Sun Apr 20, 2025 7:33 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.
Replies: 26
Views: 1032

Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.

Rained all night here but never quite got going. 7mm in the gauge. Still light rain this morning. Most falls in the 5 to 10mm range across TAS. Mild and muggy with tropical moisture spilling south.

System has been another dud tbh overall. Still more to come but messy and patchy. Will be decent ...
by hillybilly
Sat Apr 19, 2025 7:04 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.
Replies: 26
Views: 1032

Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.

Raining steadily here in southern Tasmania this evening after a warm murky days. We do need a tank top up and farm dams down here are all pretty low so fingers crossed it rains all night. Further north you get the patchier. Victoria is going to be a mixed bag with good falls in Gippsland, patchy ok ...
by hillybilly
Sat Apr 19, 2025 6:07 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.
Replies: 26
Views: 1032

Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.

Would expect just about every run of days above record has fallen this month now. Insane weather for six weeks from winter. Nice beach weather, well except on the east coast where waves are riding record high sea levels and causing massive erosion. Definitely not wise to live on sand dunes in a ...
by hillybilly
Fri Apr 18, 2025 7:13 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.
Replies: 26
Views: 1032

Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.


Adelaide average this April 27.2 - April avge is 22.2. The last 8 days have been over 28 degrees. I know a lot of people now are shy about highlighting weather extremes on social media for fear of being attacked by hordes of people who don't believe in climate change. Some of whom can be really ...
by hillybilly
Wed Apr 16, 2025 7:34 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.
Replies: 26
Views: 1032

Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.

Progs probably looking better tonight but still a big spread. Not very confident on details, but tending to think about 20mm here. Western Victoria also looks pretty promising. Will all bomb into a deep low off the NSW coast so risk of more serious wave damage up there.

Meanwhile heat rolls on with ...
by hillybilly
Wed Apr 16, 2025 6:31 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.
Replies: 26
Views: 1032

Possible Easter low with showers, rain and storms.

Messy system coming up which might ease the current dry conditions impacting much of southeast Australia. Very complicated with an initial weak low drifting southeast of Tasmania then an approaching front which cuts off and eventually forms a low somewhere near Bass Strait. Finally a third low ...
by hillybilly
Wed Apr 16, 2025 6:26 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-
Replies: 30
Views: 1255

Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-

Geez it’s hard to read the models for the weekend. Guess a thread, for something that could give us all 2mm or 25mm. Heavier falls likely for Gippsland and western Tasmania. Before then a couple more warm, almost hot days for much of the southeast. If the coming system doesn’t deliver April’s going ...
by hillybilly
Mon Apr 14, 2025 9:06 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-
Replies: 30
Views: 1255

Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-


12z GFS has a spectacular Anzac Day special - deep trough, bombing Low, alpine snow, Autumn break for Western Vic. EC has a ridging High and clipper front.


Almost time for a new thread. Progs are pretty jumpy but does look like an autumn break of sorts for much of Victoria. Might slip under ...
by hillybilly
Mon Apr 14, 2025 6:29 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-
Replies: 30
Views: 1255

Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-

Very welcome 12mm here overnight. Pretty general 10-20mm which will be very welcome after a very dry three month. We were getting close to to having to order water which cost ~$150 a load so good timing.

Scraping Gippsland but won’t make it further north.

Cooler day today, actually quite cold ...
by hillybilly
Sun Apr 13, 2025 6:35 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-
Replies: 30
Views: 1255

Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-

Warm one here today with 23C. A bit of rain but mostly shreaded so far. Should thicken up tonight down here, but not quite sure when ti trust the rain forecasts as stalled fronts can be fickle - in the right spot can pour down but a bit north or south and you miss out.

Hot on the mainland ...
by hillybilly
Sun Apr 13, 2025 6:26 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-
Replies: 30
Views: 1255

Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-

Warm one today for the mainland. Bit cooler for Tasmania with rain developing. Unfortunately most that rain slips just under Victoria. There’s an excellent tropical infeed but it just doesn’t connect for the mainland.

Will be pretty windy pre trough with some fire weather warnings posted. Bit of ...
by hillybilly
Sat Apr 12, 2025 6:22 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-
Replies: 30
Views: 1255

Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-

Nice day here today but hazy. Max of 21C. Looking forward to some rain here tomorrow. That front will scrape South Gippsland but not get any further north :( On the mainland temperatures are far too warm for the time of year. Widely running 10 to 15C above average.

Signs that we might see a break ...
by hillybilly
Sat Apr 12, 2025 6:14 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-
Replies: 30
Views: 1255

Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-


Seems like all of southern Vic is trending towards drought, the past 2 years. I suppose timing is right for a drought too. It's been 'wet' since 2011 (so 14 years). Previous to that, the millennium drought lasted for about 15 years (from 1996ish to 2011).


Unfortunately Victoria hasn’t been wet ...
by hillybilly
Thu Apr 10, 2025 7:18 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-
Replies: 30
Views: 1255

Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-

Far too warm across the southeast today. Temps into the low 30’s in parts of Victoria, mid 30’s in SA and 26-28C around Hobart. Typically running about 10C above average.

Heats gonna roll on for the mainland. Will be plenty of runs of days records broken by the end of this. Tasmania escapes a fair ...
by hillybilly
Thu Apr 10, 2025 6:45 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-
Replies: 30
Views: 1255

Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-

Progs suggest it might break down in about a week for the mainland southeast, but then another big high for Easter. Tasmania is a bit more mixed with possible rain on Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile really warm week basically everywhere.

Seeing really ugly drought photos from western Victoria and ...
by hillybilly
Wed Apr 09, 2025 6:37 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-
Replies: 30
Views: 1255

Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-

A thread for the coming long long warm and dry spell. Looks like this could well last to about Easter, particularly for the mainland. Some showers possible for Tasmania and perhaps coastal Victoria, particularly around the start of next week.

Temperatures will be way above average most days, and ...
by hillybilly
Tue Apr 08, 2025 6:37 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: A series of strong fronts to start April
Replies: 34
Views: 1429

A series of strong fronts to start April

Probably time for another “warm and dry thread”. Could well see some records with this one, particularly for areas west of Victoria. Glad to be south of the heat and perhaps inline for some rain here in Tasmania.

March was record warm and capped by far the warmest 12 months on record for Australia ...
by hillybilly
Mon Apr 07, 2025 6:56 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: A series of strong fronts to start April
Replies: 34
Views: 1429

A series of strong fronts to start April

Rained for quite a while here yesterday but just light. 2mm in the gauge. That’s about 15mm for the week. Everything’s got a green tinge, but still dry underneath.

Cool to mild but dry week ahead. Perhaps something brewing about next weekend.