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- by hillybilly
- Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:26 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Any more word on storms this arvo.? ACCESS-C and EC are marginal - isolated showers in eastern areas. GFS pretty much says nope. Trough looks too far east for most of central areas with southerlies extending east. Is unstable and lots of humidity, but the southerly is going to cap convection. A cha...
- by hillybilly
- Wed Feb 18, 2015 5:58 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Rain moving in from the north east Odd situation - models missed this even at short range, though morning update of ACCESS-C picked it up. Little upper low and surface trough moving southwest. ACCESS-C has locally heavy falls into central areas tonight. EC kinda had something but out with its timin...
- by hillybilly
- Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:24 am
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Foggy with a bit of drizzle last night in Ferny Creek with 0.4mm in the gauge. Another humid one today (and indeed every day for the next week) with warm/hot conditions in the north/east and cooler in the south/west. Expecting the northeast to light up on the radar next few days with a trough hardly...
- by hillybilly
- Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:18 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Sweaty 27.7C here today. Foggy start and sunny humid end. Thinking the southeasterly will act as a storm shield here, but happy to be proved wrong. Quite surprised to see intense storms, but not surprised there is convection. Scorcher out west with decent humidity providing the fuel. Progs continue ...
- by hillybilly
- Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:45 am
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Foggy and humid night up here... Loving this humid weather ;) Not seeing much today. Hot uppers cap convection, while more easterly flow takes the edge of temperatures at the surface except out west which will be HOT. Scorching temperatures west of Vic yesterday. Low to mid 40s for most spots west o...
- by hillybilly
- Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:15 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
47.9mm for the event (though more humid days to come so might add some more). Lots of washouts around the hills as happens with decent falls. MTD is a healthy 50mm... Though our average is about 70mm so not quite there yet. Hopefully that's the end of our fire season here... Would be pretty unusual ...
- by hillybilly
- Sat Feb 14, 2015 6:23 am
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Cats and dogs, Puppy's and kittens here Same here. Even a couple of rumbles and fog to add to the atmospherics :D Just passed 35mm for the event. If the train of showers keeps up over us we'll crack 50mm by 9am... though it is edging south and might slip under us. Spots just south of here must be a...
- by hillybilly
- Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:39 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
25 to 30mm across Ferny Creek, and still coming down nicely. Tanks are full and we are now half way to the monthly average after a month of almost zilch ;) Thinking we could well see about 50mm by am tomorrow. Developing again out west with some cells in the radar hole, so more to come. Places just ...
- by hillybilly
- Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:09 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Just on 20mm here. Very happy with that for starters :P All models keeps showers and storms through the night, then a weak low pass through Bass Strait in the morning clearing things. Could be plenty more to come... Both ACCESS and GFS have the heavier most widespread rain overnight. Should see a de...
- by hillybilly
- Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:21 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
anyone in the south east see this wall cloud moving in? Very green and dark. Just went into it. Cloud ahead of it was moving east to west, cloud then change to west to east :o Black as night out here now with frequent rumbles. The most dramatic sky I've seen here in years. Now just waiting for it t...
- by hillybilly
- Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:39 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Radar looks great IMHO and GFS and ACCESS bring substantial falls across central areas next 12-24 hours. Can't see this one not delivering for us :D Across the models - seeing about 30mm in Ferny Creek by morning ;) Picked up the edge of a couple of cells - bout 4mm back home. 6mm 2km's to our east ...
- by hillybilly
- Thu Feb 12, 2015 6:11 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Forgive me if I get a little bit excited with the forecast for the next 3 days! Me too. Been a long dry time between "drinks" for us. No really scorching days, but lots of warm/hot ones. Got a little drizzle this morning and fog, again showing how humid this system is. Meanwhile, couple o...
- by hillybilly
- Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:56 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Just gone past 30C here with a DP of 19C. That's about 36 or 37C sea level equivalent. Dead calm... nice beach day if only we had one :P Waiting for this hot humid pattern to break down. Things are uncomfortably dry up here now with next to no rain for a month. Moderately hopeful that Fri/Sat and Su...
- by hillybilly
- Sun Feb 08, 2015 8:24 am
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Models have upped the rainfall for the week ahead. ACCESS and GFS look pretty good - maybe 10 to 25mm here - but EC stuck on about 5mm. Plenty of time to upgrade :D or downgrade :x Front just through here. Very very thick fog came in on the wind change. Viz down to about 20m... one of the thickest f...
- by hillybilly
- Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:32 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Will the storms out west reach melbourne tonight? EC says no, GFS says yes. That said EC did have any storms in the west today... Case of watch the radar. There is a belt of convergence through the Melbourne region between the humid sea breeze and hot northeasterly. Fingers are crossed. Overall it ...
- by hillybilly
- Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:59 am
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
- Replies: 272
- Views: 104547
Long warm to hot and unstable period. Models showing a series of weak troughs which never really budge the heat, with the South bouncing from warm to hot, and the North hot, hot and hot. Bit unstable out there this morning with a couple of thundery showers. Best chance today is probably near the mid...
- by hillybilly
- Mon Feb 02, 2015 7:39 am
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: 27 Jan onwards - settled and mild
- Replies: 44
- Views: 22395
Really frustrating system for us. Got 0.2, trace, 0.7 and 0.4mm across the last four days. Missed us to the east and west. Had a pretty rotten run out our way missing three events in the past three weeks :( Cool conditions so a nice change from the heat of summer - but the heat will be back soon. La...
- by hillybilly
- Thu Jan 29, 2015 7:08 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: 27 Jan onwards - settled and mild
- Replies: 44
- Views: 22395
Watching that low throw up showers which keep,dying just southeast of here. Pretty common pattern for us... We can get rain from the southeast, but more often miss. One heavy shower is currently quite close so slightly hopeful ;) Getting notably dry here now. Grass yellowing/drying quickly on the sl...