The Australian Weather Forum

Huge system for Hobart’s eastern shore and TAS east of Hobart city more generally with some spots showing near a months worth of rain this arvo. Dud on the western shore, with just a mm here. That type of divergence is really unusual here. Just bad luck. Progs jumping around for Christmas but overal...

Bit underwhelming overnight. 2mm here, and totals pretty similar for much of VIC and TAS. Cold pool moving up for today with showers, which will be heavy in eastern TAS.

Progs wigggling for Christmas.

Murky calm and damp day here. Looked like mid winter, though mild with 20C. The system is stalling as a cold pool southwest of Tasmania moves up. Rainband over VIC should thicken overnight while heavy showers and perhaps the odd rumble will develop over TAS. It’s cold enough down here for flurries o...

This system has been downgrading with each model run 😩Looks like 10mm here now, when some of the earlier runs has more than 50mm. System peaks over southwest Tasmania then northeast Tasmania and Bass Strait. Theres the rainband today on the upper trough then a secondary low develop for later tomorro...

Another complex easterly system showing up with a long wave trough moving into the southeast for the start of the work week, with a deepening surface trough which eventually forms a close low east of Tasmania. System looks very wet for the western third of Tasmania, pretty decent for the centre and ...

Possible Jasper will come into play, though suspect the positive SAM which looks like dominating the next month or two will provide plenty of moisture. Then just need the triggers. Looks like the next easterly event is now now only a couple of days so new thread.

After teasing TAS for a week, finally scored last night. Cracking storms this morning peaking around 2am. Lots of flash bangs, and 23mm in the gauge. Rounds out the event here with just on 30mm. Nice tank topper and garden waterer. Some spots scored over 50mm, while a few missed out with less than 2...

Last chance for storms today. Looks pretty hit and miss for VIC, but probably better for TAS. Precip water values are exceptionally high, but system is being dragged south. Hoping to get at least 10mm here, but might struggle. Starting to get dry down here. TBH this system has been pretty underwhelm...

41C in Mildura and 16C on the west coast. That’s a crazy gradient. Don’t imagine it gets much stronger, particularly given the lack of a cold front. Rain really patchy today as expected. The main low back in SA is now weakening and will be caught by the westerlies. Not expecting a lot more for VIC, ...

Some big falls under that band of storms but somehow managed to miss areas north of the city

Humid with showers and storms today for the mainland. Fine and mild for TAS.

Next few days are messy with poor consistency between models and models runs.

System is now focussed in SA with the troughs moving west. Huge falls out there. Some December records already fallen. Cool maxima with all the rain out there. Weather turns hot for much of VIC and warm for Tasmania from Monday. Will pop into the low 40s in the Mallee. Showers and storms will be spa...

Handy 7mm overnight in southeast TAS. Mostly cleared now. Today is mainly a western and central VIC day with a stalled cloud and rainband, with a narrow area of good falls. Expecting locally 25mm+ where the band settles. Nasty heat in NSW. Yesterday’s cloud was a bit more persistent than expected. S...

Hot day ahead for much of VIC, and warm for TAS. Rain building late. The band will be split in two parts. One runs through TAS today with a swathe of 10-25mm. The second through VIC from late arvo through middle of tomorrow. That one is narrow and slow, so will be locally heavy, but as it weakens as...

Progs backed off a little, but still looks solid. One part that slipped a bit under the radar is the heat. It mostly stays north of Victoria, but the Mallee will fry on a few days. Close to 45C on Friday, and then a couple of days into the low 40s next week. Horrid conditions in NSW where some spots...

This one again looks impressive and very long lived. Days of humid weather. Starts with showers and rain then sorta clears, then showers and storms return in waves. Should deliver for all of southeast Australia, and be heavy out in western Vic and South Australia which is a bit unusual. We are stuck...

Such a great system for topping up the dams, creeks and giving the gardens and forests a drink. Should make for a nice start to summer. Not as great down here. Few spots got 50-100mm, but most was a bit of a struggle. 30mm here in Howden. Progs look pretty dull. Maybe shower from about Thursday. Cou...

One last burst of showers tending to rain today for vic. A weak upper low will support a period of southeasterly upslide, which I expect will target particularly west Gippsland. Probably more flooding issues. Quite remarkable really for a positive IOD moderate El Niño. Expecting showers here in sout...

Not really Tas’s system. Quite unusual to get such a persistent block just sit at the same latitude like this. We’ve had days of humid easterlies but mainly trade wind type showers that build up overnight and early morning, then fade in the arvo. Only 3mm so far for this part down here, though much ...

Heaps of November records falling with this event across southern NSW then onto the south coast. Expect a few spots in the area near Eden have all ready gone over 400mm. Will wait to see when the obs come in at 9am. Would not be surprised to see the NSW November record fall with this. Just crazy. Fo...

Today looks to be focussed on South Australia and near the Murray as the upper low edges through southern NSW. Further south showers spread east to west across southern VIC and eastern Tasmania. Think this will be a big one for south coast NSW and Gippsland. Elsewhere will depend a fair bit on detai...