The Australian Weather Forum

New substantial system showing up on the progs, with this one looking to favour Tasmania and perhaps parts of southern Victoria. Will keep the green summer going in Victoria, and hopefully put a dint in the drought affecting parts of Tasmania. A trough starts to deepen on Monday, morning a cut off l...

Picked up 0.2mm of mizzle so ended on just shy of 14mm. Freshened things up, but still looks dry. Bit better for central parts of TAS, but still most areas are dry. Hopefully the next event is more focussed on TAS, and less so Victoria. Bit hard to pick the next event with quite a spread across mode...

Unremarkable but useful 14mm here. First proper rain in a month. Very good falls through the centre of Tasmania where the past 12 months has been near record dry. Won’t turn it around in one fall, but very useful. Puts the fire season on hold. Amazing falls for VIC, though some crazy gradients. Quit...

Big day ahead. For tas hoping we can get some relief from the flash drought. Expecting some good falls, but progs pretty jumpy. Should see 15 to 30mm here, but full range across the models goes from about 10mm to about 50mm. We have one dying low to our northwest and a developing low to our northeas...

Progs jumping a lot for down here so not too confident. Will get something but could be a pretty useless 5mm or a very welcome 50mm. Starting to develop a flash drought down here which isn’t good heading into the hottest part of summer. It looks like another VIC special, particularly for northern ar...

Quick follow up system which will finally deliver for Tasmania as well as Victoria. Have felt like a spectator down here the last three weeks. Low deepens in the easterlies on the weekend, before slowly moving to sit just east of Tasmania around Tuesday. Rain and storms spread across Victoria on the...

Hot day in the Tamar Valley with 31.6 degrees in Launceston 26C down here south of Hobart, so also quite toastie. Got a few cells build over the nearby ranges but the southeasterly kept them largely off the coastal plains. Couple of heavy falls backside of Wellington with a number of 20mm+ totals b...

Warm a sticky here with a bit of drizzle. Clouds sat near sea level early but around 500m this arvo. Not our day. Some crazy totals scattered round Melbourne and north central with quite a few 50-80mm falls most falling in an hour or two. Good pick by the progs. Tomorrow looks a bit iffy to me for h...

Looks likes another mainly VIC event this one. Ok for north east TAS but only dribble here. Geez this pattern has been stuck for a month. Today will see storms spread east across Victoria. They will probably struggle near the coast, but be strong near and north of the ranges. Expecting more heavy fa...

For those on Twitter we caught a few snow showers around South Wellington today. Was snowing this morning to about 1000m. Didn’t settle but still good to see some flakes.

Was thinking new thread time. This system looks potent, particularly for NSW and QLD. VIC mostly looks to be north and east. Another system that will be good for northeast Tasmania but leave every one else crossing fingers for a south or west extension. Some signs that the instability could stick ar...

93mm was our event total in the end. Spectacular really. That’s fantastic to hear. The positive SAM with no monsoon is a potent mix, I’ve never seen before. Fair bit of evidence that it’s tied at least in part to the Tongan volcano two year back which is keeping the polar vortex strong much later t...

Scored 0.4mm here overnight which is the total for the event. Very dry here now in southeast TAS, though 50 to 100km to my northeast is green so a bit of bad luck. Damn wish global warming wasn’t a thing. Used to get 30 foot drifts of snow on the mountain down here which lasted all summer. Hobart av...

Good falls overnight in northeast TAS but missed here. Got a light shower with 0.2mm. Biggest dud I’ve seen here in two years. Progs had 30-60mm coming into it, but got less than 1mm. Great system for VIC, which is good to see. Our mild troughie weather continues for another ten days. No complaints....

The last 18 days of December in Melbourne will not record a 30 degree day. When did that last happen?? Not a record with 2001 having 29 December days in a row below 30C. Still remarkable given how hot it’s been to our north. Here south of Hobart our warmest day this December has been 26.7C and the ...

Three bigs days of showers and storms spreading to rain starting today. Looks very wet for VIC, particular west central through Wimmera but no where will miss out. Looks to me that rain will be the main threat as skies look very murky with high humidity and lots of cloud. Down in Tas we are largely ...

Been busy and waiting for this one to settle down. Unfortunately looks like it may well be a miss for Tasmania. Cracking low, with lots of storms for VIC, quite probably severe on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Unfortunately for down here it tends to drift almost west to east so doesn’t get much s...

Huge system for Hobart’s eastern shore and TAS east of Hobart city more generally with some spots showing near a months worth of rain this arvo. Dud on the western shore, with just a mm here. That type of divergence is really unusual here. Just bad luck. Progs jumping around for Christmas but overal...

Bit underwhelming overnight. 2mm here, and totals pretty similar for much of VIC and TAS. Cold pool moving up for today with showers, which will be heavy in eastern TAS.

Progs wigggling for Christmas.

Murky calm and damp day here. Looked like mid winter, though mild with 20C. The system is stalling as a cold pool southwest of Tasmania moves up. Rainband over VIC should thicken overnight while heavy showers and perhaps the odd rumble will develop over TAS. It’s cold enough down here for flurries o...