The Australian Weather Forum

13mm so far today. Radar looks pretty good towards Swan Hill which has copped 22mm.

Hard to say how much is left in it.

Well we were lucky. 8mm on the very edge of the rainband. But half the town has missed out.

Hopefully some more later this afternoon and evening. IC and AXS think so.

Looks like it will all fall west of here. I'm now thinking 5mm.

Forecasts models saying 10-40mm for here. I'm expecting the lower end of that range at best.

Already seeing the downgrades and expecting more downgrades... What a shame. (But not unexpected)

00z EC and GFS both look very good for Anzac Day. We're now within the 4 day window.

My confidence has increased to locking in 10mm, now that those models suggest around 40mm.

BOM WATL forecast has nudged it up to 15-20mm here for the Anzac Day special. So perhaps 5mm? This upcoming system has potential, but my fear is that it will be starved of moisture somewhere, somehow at the last minute.

That said, it's a oft-articulated urban legend in Bendigo that if it's been a ...

Anzac Day is looking promising -15-40mm on most forecast models. I would suggest the outcome will be about 10% of that - 1.5 - 4.0 mm

Complete fizzer. Drought drags on.

April 1985 had a similar mid-April heatwave FWIW.

Anyway, 00z EC and AXS-G look very interesting for next weekend...

All the forecasts look a bit grim again. That low in the Tasman is simply reinforcing the stupid ridge over us.

Tassiedave wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 7:21 am 29 degrees forecast for Melbourne. What is the latest 30 degree maximum for April in Melbourne if it gets there?

April 20th 2019 it got to 30.2c in Melb. I think that's the latest iirc.

I'm well and truly fed up with this heat. Yesterday wasn't too bad though.

Rain forecasts seem to have disappeared for Sunday. Anzac weekend looks more promising.

One thing that might deliver decent winter rains this year is the strong likelihood of a -ve IOD going into Winter-Spring. If we get ...

Starting to see some semblance of alignment in the forecasts. Perhaps 15mm here? Could be the most rain we've had since the start of December. If we're lucky.

At least it looks like keeping the Western Australian desert heat away from us for a bit.

Presume any cutoff low will heavily favour eastern areas of the state but hopefully this one is the exception to the rule. But I won’t be betting on it.


I wouldn't bet anything on it either. But it has piqued my interest. As for this April, it'll be interesting to see if it ends up our hottest ...

Gotta laugh at the forecast models. EC and IC are all excited about a very rainfall productive stalling trough Sunday night.... Hilarious if true.

12z GFS has a spectacular Anzac Day special - deep trough, bombing Low, alpine snow, Autumn break for Western Vic. EC has a ridging High and clipper front.

Thursday 17th looks to be very hot - forecast of 31c here, which almost equals the 31.8c on April 17th 2019. I think that's our latest +30c in Autumn recorded here (or close to it).

Ironically some similarity between Jan-March 2019 and Jan-March 2025 with big rains in Qld and nothing here.

I hate ...

No relief at all. Despairing.

On a brighter note, the Darling River looks like it'll get a good flush this Autumn. The Paroo River is higher than 1990 levels, and decent flows are being recorded at Walgett and also in the Warrego River.

The Menindee Lakes will certainly enjoy that (currently just 33% capacity).