The Australian Weather Forum

Unlucky by a few kms for both parts of this event, finishing on 4.5mm. Great to see all those big falls though; something from nothing, so in many ways 'bonus' rain. Btw Nino 3.4 just tipped into negative. That’s really early and you need to take bout 0.5 off it because of global warming to make it ...

Blackee wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2024 8:16 am Finally some weather to post about. Constant Tain on the old tin roof started about midnight and continues in heavy to moderate spurts. 22mm here so far and very welcome.

Is that at Mansfield Blackee?

Had our first short but quite heavy shower earlier. Bizarre experiencing almost stormy weather with the barometer at 1032 hPa (I'm weather-confused a lot these days.)

Not sure about others but i am struggling to remember such persistent highs for weeks on end. Feels like the start to an El Niño drought but we are meant to be seeing a La Niña :? I get it, and agree re persistent highs. After decades of thinking I understood climate drivers and climate forecasts t...

An unexpected 1mm from drizzly showers last night.

Fine again now, but perhaps a sniff of something from a trough dipping south over Vic at the end of the week?

Cold and quite damp April here, maximums 1.5C below average, but lack of sun probably made it feel colder. 82.5mm of rain versus 57mm average. YTD of 174.5mm is however below our 28 year average of 222mm.

After a mild Tuesday, a much stronger front than I expected. Punched through last night with a big temperature drop and powerful winds. A few branches down, 12mm of rain and now 5C.

81.5mm mtd is way above our 60mm average for April.

2mm overnight here to add to 1mm a few days earlier. Hardly spectacular, but with cool temps and little wind, keeps things green and growing, which is a pleasant change from March!

64.5mm mtd.

We largely missed out on the ECL part of this system, with only 2mm. But a better result with the cold front, bringing 10mm - quite a bit more than the 1-5mm forecast. I do like it when forecast rain totals are underestimated :). Hope it's a sign of a shift back to wetter conditions. (Nice to see a ...

Looks like at least a week of cool and damp weather for most of Vic, starting tomorrow with rain barely creeping over the border, but becoming more widespread and significant over the weekend as the low centre nears far East Gippsland. Then a cold front on Monday sets up the remainder of the week fo...

Another 5mm here from showers. Certainly does seem like summer straight to winter, and dust to mud .

Worth a new thread for the likely ECL etc?

hillybilly wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:27 am Not so great for southern Tasmania. Progs basically picked this. Had just 6mm here so far. Freshens things up, but not enough so far.

Radar looking a bit better for you now I hope hillybilly? Although I always find it bloody hard to tell in Tassie with the topographical detail

45mm here. Amazing how widespread decent (25mm plus) totals are through a large swathe of VIctoria. Great system!

25mm here, so that's the autumn break (the local definition being a single fall of an old-fashioned inch between St Patricks Day and Anzac Day.) Definitely a pass, with anything extra from now being a bonus.

After an initial thundery downpour, we've settled into moderate rain here with the odd heavier burst. 16mm so far.

6mm already in the first 12hours of April! Double my March total! Nice Macedonian - hopefully the first mms of many for you! Only a few spots here so far, but radar and progs are promising. The sky is looking very volatile. Just had a quick check of our 28 years of records. We recorded just 1.5mm f...

From my post on Good Friday: 'Still a bit 'forecast shy' after the disappointments of the last two months, but if we don't get the autumn break Easter Monday/ Tuesday, it will be the biggest bust I can recall.' Liking the latest SWW (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml). Text includes: &qu...

8 of the 10 models I can see give us at least 20mm plus Monday/ Tuesday, and that includes EC, GFS and ACCESS. Some are triple that. Still a bit 'forecast shy' after the disappointments of the last two months, but if we don't get the autumn break Easter Monday/ Tuesday, it will be the biggest bust I...

At least GFS and EC are finally agreeing on decent rain for us (25mm plus) and a fair bit of Vic early next week, instead of one on/ one off.

Other models are mixed, reflected in a more modest WATL chart this morning. Keen to see if ACCESS gets on board, which it hasn't really at this stage.

This morning's WATL has something for Vic (at last!), although you know it's dry when the possibility of 5-10mm several days out catches your attention!

Edit: individual models certainly are a mess though - latest EC has us down for 170mm in the next 8 days, GFS almost zero!