The Australian Weather Forum

Finally, some rain falling here for the first time in 11 days. Only 2mm so far but at least it makes things (briefly) wet.

I won't do rainfall forecasts anymore - just obs. For whatever reason, models and BOM (short and long-term) are as useless as they've ever been for my 3 decades of weather ...

At the very least, the blunt stats say that western Vic and much of southern SA is in extreme drought; exceptional dry coupled with exceptional heat. No room for interpretation or opinion there.

Back to the actual thread, and looks like you might have scored a shower this afternoon Lighthouse? The ...

Having the Melbourne radar out of action is sure to help with this system - whenever it's down, we seem to get good rain (insert exasperated emoji).

3mm here to 9am, making 5.5mm for the thread. Properly cold, with maximums low to mid teens, and minimums low to mid single digits.

That looks about it for us for the next few days, except maybe some light drizzle.

Wow, so much fascinating info there, I don't know where to start.

Macedonian, sorry you'll be leaving - I'll lose my closest high elevation neighbour! Love your reports, although I did notice they had become fewer and now I can see why. Best of luck with the move and I hope we'll get some Blue ...

An even 1mm here, making a mighty 2.5mm for the thread :(. Certainly cold, with 5C when I got up and still only 7C.

A few observations re rainfall trends - and I can only speak for our area. Our first 13 years here (1996 to 2009) were way drier than the last 15 years. I haven't crunched the ...

Yes, that Tasman low does seem like a bit of a waste - sums up the last year for us westerners...

Meanwhile, 4.5mm of drizzly showers over the last 3 days to finish the month on 35.5mm. March is our driest month so that's actually only 8mm below average. Trouble is, we've got a 300mm deficit to ...

hillybilly wrote: Fri Mar 28, 2025 6:02 am Ok, looks like another dud. Something is screwy with our weather. I guess we all know things have changed

No doubt. But if we here on a humble weather forum can see it, why can't the models and their super computers? Neither the climate forecasts, nor the short-range forecasts can pick it.

Hmmm. Seems like a loose trend for the models to support decent rain (25mm plus) for some of eastern Vic and west central from later in the weekend and into next week.

Comes and goes from run to run and model to model; for example 06z run for today on GFS. Liking the trend, hoping it results in ...

Thread to watch and speculate on the huge rain event which will effect northeast Australia, and possibly edge south towards the end of March. Quite a split in progs, so could be entirely dry or see good falls. Month has been a big disappointment for most of southern Australia and really warm so do ...

With a looming El-Nino this year, I have genuine fears that 2025 could be our driest year on record.


Not that I put much weight on SOI (or IOD) these days, but genuinely interested that you see a looming El Nino? This from BOM's climate driver page on 18 March:

"The El Niño–Southern ...

Good to see plenty of decent falls, but a bugger for SB - hoping you pick up something from the tail end... (Seem to have lost my shorthand emoji post options, otherwise would have posted a sad face.)

19mm here so far; hoping to crack 20mm with a bit left out west of us.

Nice downpour when I passed through @Lighthouse's part of the world an hour or two ago. Fingers crossed for a bit more down that way!

Back to find 6mm in our gauge and still raining - a start at least.

Rain has started here and radar looks good. Away for most of the day now, so I'll have to wait to see the final result. Fingers crossed...

StratoBendigo wrote: Tue Mar 18, 2025 3:38 pm Hmmm, a couple of the 00Z model outputs have got me interested about storms and rain later this week. IC reckons 40mm, ARP has 25mm.

GFS a measly 10mm this week, but off-the-chain with 60mm next week

Just started a new thread for this one - think it has qualified .

From what was looking like a dry week only a few days ago, odds now seem to be firming for fairly widespread showers and storms from late Wednesday into Thursday, with the possibility of further action into next week.

If Thursday's rain comes off, it will be great - but also a forecasting failure. Models had no sign of it just a few days ago.

An even 10mm here so far, maybe a bit more to come. Nice not to have the rain miraculously part around us like it has for the last month and a half. 16C; wind picking up.

First sheep grazier's warning for a while. Bring on the change of seasons!

Two evenings in a row we've had large-scale storms coming straight at us from the west, die on our doorstep. It's like living in Bachhus Marsh, where that sort of thing is 'supposed' to happen geographically, not the wettest spot between Melbourne and Ballarat :(.

Having the radar down today is ...