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Search found 29 matches

by Lighthouse
Tue Feb 11, 2025 5:57 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Long lived trough with possible showers: Feb 7-
Replies: 39
Views: 1566

Long lived trough with possible showers: Feb 7-

We’ve had 4mm for February, 24mm for the year. That’s after the previous two years of rainfall being 33 percent below average. The locals say it’s never been this dry, even in 2009 or 1983. And there’s just nothing of any substance on the horizon. Quite ironic that every BOM seasonal outlook from ...
by Lighthouse
Sun Feb 09, 2025 1:17 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Long lived trough with possible showers: Feb 7-
Replies: 39
Views: 1566

Long lived trough with possible showers: Feb 7-

Thanks for the explanation Gordon. Benwerrin also received about 35mm in a thunderstorm this week so hopefully lessens the fire risk for a while.
by Lighthouse
Sun Feb 09, 2025 8:54 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Long lived trough with possible showers: Feb 7-
Replies: 39
Views: 1566

Long lived trough with possible showers: Feb 7-

Bizarre setup for the Otways, most parts have received very little or nothing but a 20km area behind Lorne has had more than 26mm in drizzle. Very localised and nothing on the actual coast including Aireys inlet which has, yet again, failed to score. Can’t see anything changing today unless ...
by Lighthouse
Wed Feb 05, 2025 3:04 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Very hot start to February: Feb 1-
Replies: 85
Views: 4216

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Crikey HB, a bushfire has closed the Overland Track. As someone who has walked it a couple of times I would not think it was possible but there you go. I’m not sure anywhere in the bush is going to be safe from bushfires in the years ahead.
by Lighthouse
Mon Feb 03, 2025 9:14 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Very hot start to February: Feb 1-
Replies: 85
Views: 4216

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

While Aireys Inlet has only had 0.4mm this evening there has been some desperately needed rain in parts of the Otways tonight. Benwerrin, about 25km north west of us, where a lightning strike started a fire overnight, has thus far had 37mm. Talk about saved by the bell. Most of the fires in the ...
by Lighthouse
Mon Feb 03, 2025 7:49 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Very hot start to February: Feb 1-
Replies: 85
Views: 4216

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Just 4mm at Aireys Inlet, pretty much a total bust again for the Otways and south west coast, Frightening amounts of lightning, see if that results in anything fire wise today. Pretty much rained in the areas it has in the past two years and missed everywhere else.
by Lighthouse
Sun Feb 02, 2025 5:53 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Very hot start to February: Feb 1-
Replies: 85
Views: 4216

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Sitting on the beach at Fairhaven this evening watching huge bolts of lightning hit the Otways behind Lorne. Going to be a very watchful 48 hours down this way. Getting a bit of rain now but most of it seems to be bypassing us to date. Hopefully that rain out west can make it here.
by Lighthouse
Sat Feb 01, 2025 8:43 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Very hot start to February: Feb 1-
Replies: 85
Views: 4216

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Finished January with 20mm against an average of 43mm. Daytime temperatures 2C above average.
by Lighthouse
Wed Jan 29, 2025 7:55 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Very hot start to February: Feb 1-
Replies: 85
Views: 4216

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Thundery could be good, more humidity, but also bad, re potential lightning. Sometimes Aireys Inlet is spared from these heat events by sea breezes but the trouble is you don’t really know until the day itself. The Otways are so dry that if a fire does start then the reality is that nothing will ...
by Lighthouse
Mon Jan 27, 2025 11:07 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming stinking hot ahead of a gusty change: January 25-27
Replies: 31
Views: 1428

Becoming stinking hot ahead of a gusty change: January 25-27

Heat kills more than 500,000 people across the world every year and the number of elderly people dying each year from heat related illnesses or weather events is, according to WHO, growing exponentially. I too get frustrated at the media’s reporting of global warming, they generally play it down or ...
by Lighthouse
Sat Jan 25, 2025 10:41 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming stinking hot ahead of a gusty change: January 25-27
Replies: 31
Views: 1428

Becoming stinking hot ahead of a gusty change: January 25-27

HB never said it was the hottest summer ever. He said 2024 was the hottest year on record and 2023 was the hottest on record before that etc. So be good if you stuck to what was posted.
by Lighthouse
Tue Jan 21, 2025 5:09 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm ahead of a trough with showers and possible storms: January 20-25
Replies: 16
Views: 1078

Warm ahead of a trough with showers and possible storms: January 20-25

HB, if we get a weather setup like 2009 then God help us. The Otways are timber dry and there is no rain on the horizon. We’ve been lucky and unlucky so far this month with a lot of easterly and southerly winds but no rain to go with it. The problem now is that it’s so dry the fire season could ...
by Lighthouse
Wed Jan 15, 2025 6:40 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12
Replies: 73
Views: 4531

Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

I agree, the difference in the climate between east and west central is the widest disparity in any forecast district. Nothing of note in Fairhaven again today and the rainfall forecast looks non-existent. Cape Otway in the south-west had their driest year on record in 2024. Is this just cyclical or ...
by Lighthouse
Mon Jan 13, 2025 9:29 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12
Replies: 73
Views: 4531

Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Yes, really don’t know what’s happening with the weather. Two years of way below average rainfall and this year looks like continuing the trend. This is despite so many traditional climate drivers seemingly being neutral or wet. Farmers in SA and western Victoria are really struggling, as are the ...
by Lighthouse
Sun Jan 12, 2025 3:27 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12
Replies: 73
Views: 4531

Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

As expected a complete bust for south west Victoria, the Wimmera, Grampians and Surf Coast. Good to see some rain around Ballarat. This weather pattern is certainly stuck, just keeps raining in a line through Melbourne and the south east suburbs. Lucky you. At least we’ve had a nice respite from the ...
by Lighthouse
Fri Jan 10, 2025 5:11 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12
Replies: 73
Views: 4531

Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Struggling to see much for Western Victoria and the Surf Coast, just more heat. Running 3.2C above average for month after two previous months of above 2.5C daytime averages. Humidity will temper fire danger next week but the bush just gets drier. Nearing the halfway mark of summer, when will these ...
by Lighthouse
Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:41 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming hot then a low developing with possible showers and storms: January 3-
Replies: 52
Views: 4096

Becoming hot then a low developing with possible showers and storms: January 3-

A very welcome 17mm at Fairhaven, not as good as the central areas but much better than the South West coast. It’s been about five weeks between drinks, hopefully the next follow-up is much sooner. I’m with you Macedonian, not a fan of the heat, what do people enjoy about it exactly, I was in the ...
by Lighthouse
Sun Jan 05, 2025 4:00 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming hot then a low developing with possible showers and storms: January 3-
Replies: 52
Views: 4096

Becoming hot then a low developing with possible showers and storms: January 3-

Somehow look like getting through this heatwave without any major fires, although I noticed a few have popped up in the east of the state, which suggests everywhere is drying out. It’s a bit disappointing that BOM didn’t get its temperature predictions right for Aireys Inlet, underestimating the ...
by Lighthouse
Tue Dec 31, 2024 11:32 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming hot then a low developing with possible showers and storms: January 3-
Replies: 52
Views: 4096

Becoming hot then a low developing with possible showers and storms: January 3-

Unfortunately it looks like another East Coast event. Finished the year at Aireys Inlet with about a third less rainfall than average, 450mm compared to an average of 625mm. That’s nearly the same rainfall deficit as the year before, making two exceptionally dry years. The December temperature ...