The Australian Weather Forum

Thought this could be an interesting thread. 37c plus looks likely for New Years Day, possibly with a late change/thunderstorm. What are your thoughts? Looks like a bit of cold air moving in after boxing day however things gradually heating up during the week.

New Years Eve and New Years day will both be hot. Look out for a possible thundery change on New Years Day.

Nothing out of the ordinary for summer though, it will only be a two day heatwave and remain under 40C for most areas (some western suburbs might give 40C a nudge).

I think 35 for Melbourne looks about the maximum on tonights run...most of the models have switched us to a NE flow for Friday..and the change on Saturday may come earlier so i think Saturday may also top out at 35. In any case as Andrew said in another thread the thermal gradient will provide at the very least some whopping storms and nasty weather.

Yeah looking interesting guys.

Agree with Anthony ... looks more of a north to northeast flow on Friday, nevertheless, some hot temperatures around. Saturday looking hotter though with lots of centres in my opinion likely to break above the 35 degree mark. Models showing a change for Saturday, but timeing is still in the air.

Saturday will be interesting. At this stage I see the change coming in late and so heating will definately lift it into the high 30's. However if clouds roll in early (as happened today here) could be a low 30's day. All depends on lots of factors.

Model output suggests it will be as dry as chips when we have this heatwave so the change when it comes through will be a dry one at this stage. GFS now hinting at a possible day in the low 40s in Melbourne around the New Year but GFS does have a habit of going to extremes a week out with heat (and cold as well in winter).

Latest EC has the change moving in Friday evening through Central Victoria between 9 and 11pm

US has also eased off on the temps with 850 temps only in the high teens on Saturday for Melbourne. It seems the only ACCESS now has a hot airmass both days.

Yeah UKMET also has the change moving in Friday evening similar to EC, also upper temps seem to be easing over most of the Country once again as we head into the following week

GFS was on drugs as it usually is with that heat it had yesterday. It's a genuine flaw of GFS that it over estimates heat more than 4 days out. Sometimes it flukes it and gets it right, like on Black Saturday, but most of the time it is an error in the model that resolves itself after a day or two.

EC definitely has the hot air moving on by early NYD. I would say 36C for NYE and then around 28C on NYD with a change in the morning. After that, as John has mentioned, the mid and upper levels cool down over the country with only pockets of heat over the inland.

Latest EC, UK and even ACCESS has the change coming thru Western Vic late afternoon Friday and into the evening Central Victoria

I am so disappointed! I want a week or 2 of 30 degree temps!!!!

Something that might interest you Tony. At least at this stage, GFS has temperatures back into the high 30's across the state next Wednesday.

GFS is at serious odds with EC though, hence the official BOM forecast of cooler weather after NYE.

True Andrew. But something worth watching.

This morning, GFS continues rather hot weather Wednesday into Thursday, with ACCESS now showing hot weather next Thursday. So some more hot weather certaintly a possibility next week ahead of perhaps a nice rain system.

Its here NOW - 30C calm and feels a lot hotter under this direct sunshine.

well all you guys got your wet and cool weather. I just want the heat back!!!!!!

Today was lovely but I wouldnt have called it hot!

And Jake, I have noticed that heat could be back on it's way. But the models can easily change we all know that!!!

Today was hot. 30C in Melbourne and around 28C here.

nah, 30c is very warm, 35-40 is hot. But then thats just an opinion

And latest model runs are no longer showing the hotter weather, just warm temperatures. Looks to be just this Friday for some nice heat, then it's a wait again.