New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

[Loo]

GFS going for LI's around -6 for Melbourne for the most part of Friday afternoon and evening. Yummy!

Just had a look at Friday and I am getting a tad excited about it. I already have an idea on my chase area but we will have to see how the next few days unfold to see if my target area will stay the same.

[firestorm]

perfect day to was great to be out an about topped out somewhere in the 22 range quiet a stiff seabreeze this arvo put a stop to it getting any hotter expect much the same tomorrow

[I_Love_Storms]

GFS has downgraded Fri storm potential in its latest run, however I head to QLD on Sunday morning...if those LI values remain the same it will be one rocky journey up on the plane!

[norfolk]

very slow rise in temps today, 11.am and its only 22c, but I am not ruling out a later max for today, just that it may struggle to 28 if the seabreezes remain all day.

[I_Love_Storms]

Bureau tips nature's fireworks for a sultry start new year

It's going to be a hot, sticky and stormy start to 2010 with the weather forecast to create its own New Year's Eve fireworks on Thursday night.

Melbourne will begin to sizzle from tomorrow when the mercury rises to 34 degrees and remains a sultry 23 degrees overnight before rising again to 34 degrees on Thursday afternoon, Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Phil King said.

By mid afternoon a change is predicted to sweep through the state from the west and bring with it possible showers and thunderstorms.

Another change is due from 10pm in the city with storms likely to herald the beginning of 2010. Spectators to the city's fireworks shows have been warned to be ready for wet weather.

"Given that we have really humid unsettled conditions developing on Thursday and lasting through to Saturday (the predicted storms) have the potential to produce some fireworks of their own," Mr King said.

Temperatures in the high 30s are predicted for the north-west of the state, with Horsham expected to reach 38 degrees on New Year's Eve.

Overnight on Thursday, the temperature in Melbourne is expected to drop to 20 degrees and the first day of 2010 should climb to 30 degrees with isolated showers and storms.

"It will stay warm and sultry right through to Saturday, with some unusually high moisture and humidity coming down from New South Wales and a risk of showers and thunderstorms through to Saturday," Mr King said.

The city won't cool until Sunday when the temperature is forecast to range between 14 and 25 degrees.

MEX COOPER - The Age

December 29, 2009 - 8:39AM

http://www.theage.com.au/national/burea ... -lhmg.html

[Alexia]

It is already 30c now and quiet humid. Yesterday was 34c kids burnt yesterday with sunscreen *2[in water though]

[I_Love_Storms]

GFS upgraded Friday again...LIs of -6 just west of Melbourne and it looks as though rainfall upwards of 100mm in some spots around metro area!!??

[Karl Lijnders]

Not wrong there ILS!! Looking very positive from Thursday onwards with locally heavy falls thanks to this rich tropical moisture. It comes down to placement but I hope she holds.

Nice and warm out here today. Currently sitting on 30C in the Yarra Valley. SE winds too.

Just got back from Marysville/Alexandra today. Plenty of fire damage about and the trees are coming back slowly but that will take another 18 months I think. Lots of water in many of the lakes and dams so that is good. Went through Upper Yarra as well and it is still nice and green, plenty of water in the dam up there.

Maroondah also looks quite chockers with people touring the area saying they cannot beleive how much water there is in the dam!! LOL!

Some small scale convection towards Mansfield today but that is it.

[Blackee]

33 on the Lake at the moment. Slight breeze just taking the sting out.
Viewed that convection earlier Karl, however it has died and been replaced with blue skies.
Thursday-Saturday looking very promising!!

[Dane]

Sea breezes once again are keeping most of Melbourne a bit cooler than forecast, max so far in the city is 24.2c against the forecast of 28c, similar to that of yesterday. Next couple of days look pretty sultry though.

[Anthony Violi]

Yes GFS has responded to the amount of mositure that will advected in to Vic beginning tomorrow. Moomba sitting on 37/16 which shows the rich tropical air leftover from Laurence..all that will be heading south in the next 24 hours. As Karl suggests, its all a matter of placement and some people are going to be upset again because falls will be scattered around but that the luck of the draw.

Friday still looks good too, and i think Saturday could be a rain event with embedded thunderstorms again given all the moisture, but we wont know till 24 hours for certain. I suspect the other models will follow and ramp totals up a little...obviously GFS is over the top.

[Karl Lijnders]

LAPS has also come on board but brings in a stronger SSW flow Friday. Still 20mm there from Thursday PM to Friday AM.

[Karl Lijnders]

Can some one solitary plume of convection and it looks quite large from here to my NE. Probably somewhere towards Mansfield way..

[adon]

Can somebody post links to models for me? My computer crashed and lost them all! Cheers!

[Karl Lijnders]

Will have the models up on the site soon but have a look at :

http://www.bvipirate.com/NOGAPS.phtml NOGAPS
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html US
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082300!!/ EC

[adon]

Cheers mate!

[adon]

Geez if GFS comes off you may see some of the biggest floods in the Darling catchments for 20+ years. Places up there are already past their saturation point and everything from now on will run and the flooding could be huge. Would be great for the country up there but maybe not so much for the people. 20mm here would be nice but not banking on it. These things backing in this far are rare but welcome

[dagget]

Watching this with great interest, was secretly hoping for a repeat of 2007/8 so I could sit in the cold hot tub on NYE drinking beer and lauging at the neighbours sweating in the 40C temps but that plan might not come off!! Of course any sort of rain/storm would be a more than adequate substitute.

[Karl Lijnders]

Hey D. I hope we can get this storm activity through many areas with a tonne of rain as it will signal the start to hopefully a wet year for many farmers who have struggled and to keep the fire risks low for the coming summer months. We have done well so far.

Still got convection towards the back of Warburton albeit small and lack lustre. Signs are there in E SA that the moisture is being lifted. Tomorrow should see it rage into storms in NSW and NE SA.

[dagget]

I reckon say, 50mm NYE and a following 50 NYD and beyond would be a great end to 2009 and start to 2010. That almost sounds like a prediction ....maybe just wishful thinking on my part