New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

[Anthony Violi]

Looks like you picked a good week then Karlos..

Humidity here and in Bega was beyond belief, would have been 60s or 70s for sure, and flow is still Ne here. And with all the rain through NSW any E/NE wind will be extremely moisture laden.

And also I mentioned last week about EC bringing in the cold air and people were asking what I was on about...well EC is very good at this and first hints at some sort of system with cold air, then refines it as we get closer. Now it looks like we may have 3 seperate systems, 2 of which we should some good action out of. Even when EC drops a system it's still indicates cold air is about and just needs to get into the right spot. It looks good to me as EC hasn't wavered since last week.

[Karl Lijnders]

Yes I have. You are most welcome to stay on holidays for another week or so!!!

Lots of rain close to the border to the N and E so there could be some broad convection across the NE tomorrow.

[Petros]

Agreed ....looks hot and humid by GFS/LAPS for late next week now. If the northerly isnt too strong, this could mean a thundery period.

Can I bludge on someone to post a link to the EC rainfall charts (surfed the site last night and came up with nothing).

[Petros]

Thanks for the link HB, see 14mm for Melb next Sat (EC).

[Karl Lijnders]

I see it has 30-40mm across Melbourne Saturday.

Anyhow. Wonderful prospects, now they have got to hold.

Watching low cloud stream in from the south across the Yarra Valley and some of the Cj over the ranges starting to fall down.

[Karl Lijnders]

Latest US has negative LIs over the N of the state coming into Wednesday night. These spread to W and C areas with thunderstorms becoming scattered and severe over W and C areas through Thursday afternoon (LIs down to -6 and CAPE at 2000 in the west).

This activity sits over inland VIC not far from the southern regions Friday then a major storm outbreak Saturday with LIs down as low as -8 and CAPE at 2400-2600 over C and E areas. This could see some of the bigger storms of the last 12 months over many regions.

Have to wait and see if it holds. Potential for some damaging thunderstorms with flash flooding and damaging winds being a priority in very high PW values.

[Dc449]

Im feeling alot of confidence, that we will get a pretty big storm in the next week, just a gut feeling!

[I_Love_Storms]

I'm going for a decent line of storms Thursday arvo/Thursday night heading from west Vic through the city then out east. Saturday still a fair way out, but those figures mentioned by Karl look very promising!

[Petros]

Just heard Phil King at the Met office predict a midnight (I think he said thundery) change to cross Melbourne during New Years Eve.

[norfolk]

seabreezes keeping it cooler than expected again, despite the sun.

[Karl Lijnders]

27C out in the Yarra Valley presently with no wind and very low level convection across the eastern ranges.

[James]

not sure where this post should go, but as we wait for some thundery weather...remember the sydney hailstorms of 1999 ?

to refresh everyones memorys, here is some archival news reports taken from my personal collection

7 News: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6AoXkN7tRQ

9 news: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbGE6craDbs

ABC News: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXe2jGMI_Pg

ACA "why werent they warned?" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDtB9fnntdU

and for us melburnians a treat...a report on a thunderstom in melbourne!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bg4N15S5CxQ

enjoy

[norfolk]

24.8 in the city, 28.0 in the Yarra Valley, 25.2 at the airport and 26.9 here. Very pleasant day overall. For tomorrow to be 28 in the city, I would guess any morning cloud would have to clear much earlier!

[Skywalker]

I reckon we will hit at least 30 here tommorow, certainly felt quite warm out there this afternoon on the bike.

[Blackee]

Got to 31 on the Lake today. No convection to speak of. Humidity levels very low with strong to gusty winds. Was almost too windy on the lake to drink beer and fish!! :lol: It was like Bourke Street out there with the number of houseboats, ski boats and jet skis. That exacerbated the choppy conditions.

Tomorrow looks like another ripping day, will take some photos and post in the photo section tomorrow night.

Hope you are all enjoying the great weather!!!

[Karl Lijnders]

Fantastic weather out here in the Yarra Valley this afternoon. Temps around 30C this afternoon with very light winds. Some convection up behind Warburton this afternoon as well.

Some very encouraging signs developing for mid week with DJ already going through all the points in a previous post. Some rich tropical air moving down in a NE wind. LAPS has DPs of 22 over the NW come Thursday and 18C in S VIC.

Hopefully timing comes through for us. I hope we can make the most of the system and keep things lush. With higher humidity the last few days, the damage in this fine spell has been minimal.

[Petros]

.... well the drying out is more than minimal out this way, but is IS summer and normal.

18 to 31C here today in calm sunny conditions once the low cloud burnt off.

Looking forward to humidity building up by Thursday and a thundery new years eve to BQQ too!

[norfolk]

Fantastic weather out here in the Yarra Valley this afternoon. Temps around 30C this afternoon with very light winds. Some convection up behind Warburton this afternoon as well.

Some very encouraging signs developing for mid week with DJ already going through all the points in a previous post. Some rich tropical air moving down in a NE wind. LAPS has DPs of 22 over the NW come Thursday and 18C in S VIC.

Hopefully timing comes through for us. I hope we can make the most of the system and keep things lush. With higher humidity the last few days, the damage in this fine spell has been minimal.

And karl i did say that the humidity of this week will make this dry/warm spell not so bad for the state.

[I_Love_Storms]

GFS going for LI's around -6 for Melbourne for the most part of Friday afternoon and evening. Yummy!

[Macedonian]

Top day in Macedon today, low level fog followed by a clear warm day, 15C min 22 C max currently clear as a bell and 17C