VIC: Cold outbreak with showers/hail 15-17 October'10

[Blackee]

This weekend' cold outbreak deserves its own thread.

Models still chopping and changing, and we are still 3 days out from any confidence in whats going to happen. However it does appear that we will receive a decent cold outbreak from late Thursday/Friday and throughout the weekend.

Models vary in terms of cut off lows and cold pools, however it will mean a return to wintery conditions, low level snow and below average temps.

[Macedonian]

Yeehaa! I am going to pick up the saturday newspaper by toboggan

[droughtbreaker]

GFS still indicating snow down to 600m but the flow has gone a lot more westerly now which doesn't help us up here. EC looks slightly milder with snow down to around 800m I'd say but still quite showery. It would be nice to get a flurry or two down here or at least up the mount.

[Jake Smethurst]

Thursday

Rain should be contracting eastwards on Thursday. Winds will tend more west to northwest then northwesterly during the day and conditions will remain quite humid. Following the rain areas there continues the risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms. A strong frontal system is approaching the state by Thursday as well, and should reach the west late in the day or overnight with further widespread showers and even further isolated thunderstorms.

Friday

The frontal system will move across Victoria on Friday flinging colder air across the state in a strong to gale force southwesterly airflow. At the present time, showers will continue along the front, and widespread showers, hail and cold-air thunderstorms following it and the possibility of low level snow.

[Blackee]

BOM 4 day chart suggesting winds mainly from the south (even South east) which may see the Tassie block for Eastern Suburbs.
Western Districts, Western Suburbs and Gippsland should make some good inroads into their monthly average on Friday.

Of course this could all change by this time tomorrow!

[AUSSKY]

Clyve's central ranges forecast for Friday and Saturday....

FRIDAY 15/10/10.  FARMERS COLD WEATHER ALERT:
Cloudy periods with showers becoming frequent at times, chance of hail, sleet and snow showers later mainly higher areas, patchy hill mist, fresh and gusty southerly winds, risk of road ice overnight. MIN TEMPS 3 to 5°C MAX TEMPS 7 to 10°C lowering gradually to between 2 and 4°C later.

SATURDAY 16/10/10.FARMERS COLD WEATHER ALERT:
Cloudy with showers and drizzle, some sleet or snow early mainly higher parts, local hail. Gusty south winds,occasional sunny breaks later, risk of patchy road ice early. MIN TEMPS 0 to 2°C MAX TEMPS 6 to 9°C .

rest of the forecast for the week are here http://www.stormchasers.au.com/currentcr.htm

[dagget]

Have to keep an eye on this, have a club event up in Bendigo this weekend Sat to Monday and was hoping for fine weather. Will be interesting to see how cold/wet it gets on Friday/Saturday hopefully nothing too good, would be just awful to miss any good weather by being away that weekend.

[johnno]

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?M ... sl&C2=pmsl" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Latest UKMET for 10am Friday morning anything blue indicates over an inch of rain ina 12 hour period & have a look how strong that Upper trough is and how deep those Southerly winds is behind it

[droughtbreaker]

The major models are still holding for low level snow chances Friday night into Saturday morning. Don't be surprised if the snow level ends up as low as 400m, although at this stage I'll say 600m.

[Petros]

Cold pool still looking good, but the low currently forming may be too early/mature to re-enhance it into Saturday, thus making the weekend to be a late winter-type cold front IMO ..... but things can still change in the next model runs..

[Rivergirl]

Don't worry hillybilly, I'll be taking pics for sure Home Friday and all weekend

[Karl Lijnders]

This cold outbreak looks to be a very wet system. I suspect that this was always the case and the first system, though a good producer always came down to luck.

In any case low level snow is coming, widespread showers and storms tending to rain ahead of the front. Should see widespread hail and storms following the front and not to mention a nasty SW wind of 40kts over much of S VIC.

Should see 50mm out here from the sequence and maybe 75mm in the Dandenongs. Should keep things nice and lush.

Will take 5-6 days to recover out of the cold air. Some suburbs could have sleet.

[stevco123]

Quick question guys, whens the coldest air due to move in? Will it be after 5pm?i have work and I don't want to miss it lol.hopefully it is friday night where the colder temps can boost any possible snow in the dandenongs or even sleet in the suburbs

[daviescr]

I'm hoping so too Steveco, I want to take a trip up to the hills to see the snow

[johnno]

All models have snow around 400 metres could be slight adjustments but at best it will probably be 300 metres at worst 600 metres anyhow looking to be the best cold outbreak of the Year mabye a few Years.

Best cold air will come from mid afternoon guys into early hours Saturday morning so after 5pm will be the best time it works out well for you guys!

[Onetahuti]

Quick question guys, whens the coldest air due to move in? Will it be after 5pm?i have work and I don't want to miss it lol.hopefully it is friday night where the colder temps can boost any possible snow in the dandenongs our even sleet in the suburbs

Late afternoon or later will be fine by me, have a complimentary lunchtime BBQ to go to at the nursing home I do some volunteer work at. Friend arriving back from Auckland tomorrow morning, she left here just before our run of warmer temps, will not be impressed

[Gordon]

BOM steadfastly keeping the snow level to 800 m - wonder what they're seeing that we're not? Will be interesting for us if it's lower, with an important dinner in Melbourne Friday evening, hope we can get back home afterwards. (A few centimetres of snow makes our hill impassable.)

[Twister]

VERY wet system in deed of just as impressive note i feel is the rain band ahead of and with the front it will be a Monster of a band with heavy falls watch it just explode over WA NTand SA tomorrow and then just continue to grow as the front and colder air get closer to the very moist NW infeed

Will be amazing to watch most of this band will be On and N of the Mounts But cold air behind S will do well while north miss out

Expect huge falls in the NE with this rain band on top of there 20-30mm falls today and easy 50-80mm falls across much of Inland NSW with this band it will just be So So impressive, epic really shame wont filter more into Vic but us N folk should get some of it

Cold air also looking quite impressive i see snow above 500m and alps could get up to 30cm just unreal really

Great, Great looking system can see it moving up S of WA atm and over NW WA cloud building and starting to feed SE in response to the NE moving front.

Will be Great watching this system unfold in the coming 48 hours

[adon]

Looking like we will be in line for some more out of this one but I think that it's a bit more dependant of timing of the moisture hitting the cold air. We still should get 25mm out of it which will be enough to get the wheat through to harvest without the moisture stress of the last decade. Will be very interesting to see how much flooding will come out of this. I think we will be seeing a MAJOR flood in the coming months for the Darling let alone the Murray and tribs. Amazing to think we have people talking about saving the river and atm it will flood in a big way. Europeans have still got to figure out that we are not in Europe.

[adon]

Hey Dean speaking of the Murray, heard the the water was getting up to the park at rowers up there... is that right? Heard that Apex park sandbank was under....