Victoria: Cold Front and SW Burst. June 8th-12th 2010

[Karl Lijnders]

Looking like a solid system mid next week which is set to drive out the block that has taken up residence in the Tasman Sea the last 3 weeks. Should see fairly windy weather as we get into Tuesday and a fairly sizeable cloud band develop. This will result in areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms spreading statewide through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds should back around the the SW and conditions will cool somewhat.

Beyond the front and rain there should be a series of cold fronts size VIC up as a long SW fetch develops. This will result in bursts of showers and snow for southern and mountain VIC. Not overly heavy but certainly a persistent showery, cold airstream likely to develop which has been something missing for about a month.

Anticipating around 10-20mm through much of the state with 50mm falls about the ranges and southern regions.

[droughtbreaker]

Looks alright, and this is basically our normal pattern for June. Later in the month you would expect a big rain event with a NW flow and NW cloud band involvement but really we only see that once or twice in an average June, the rest of the month is frequent showery days, most fairly light but with the odd stronger system with better totals and more widespread. Exactly what the models are indicating for the next week, generally average temps too.

[Jake Smethurst]

This system does look quite likely IMO to bring at least widespread shower activity to most areas beginning in the west developing late Tuesday and throughout on Wednesday. Still a little hard to say what exactly is going to happen, but I have been mentioning rain areas over southern and mountain areas on Wednesday easing from the west in my forecasts in the other thread. GFS and EC still going for different scenarios, but a general wetter period approaching and we should get more confirmation on whether we see a cut-off near us or a strong frontal system passing on through. Looking promising however.

[Rhys_34]

I must be seeing things or GFS has gone mad caus it's saying there will be -4C at 850hpa above Melbourne late Wednesday/Thursday! The last time I remember seeing those kind of temps was 10th of August 2005!

[Karl Lijnders]

Should see a fairly reasonable band of rain/showers come across the state by Tuesday/Wednesday. Anticipating around 10mm throughout with spot falls of 15-20mm about the ranges.

Then the focus shifts to the south of the state with brisk NW/SW winds and a few fronts. Should see further showery periods of 5-10mm over the course of a few days with a cold dry air mass.

I think the focus will shift to the next long wave trough which comes up behind the weak ridge in 10 days time which could spawn our first northerly gale event, and significant cold outbreak.

[Karl Lijnders]

Models somewhat unchanged. Looks like 10-25mm across the southern areas with C areas looking to pick up most of the rainfall with frontal timing.

10cm of snow for the resorts.

Not much out of the ordinary but it will be cold with local hail and thunder.

[AUSSKY]

VICTORIAN CENTRAL RANGES WEATHER UPDATE 7/6/10. (Clyve Herbert)

OVERVIEW.
A high pressure system moves across Victoria through Monday and Tuesday then recedes east of the state later Tuesday. An active trough and cold front will approach the Central Ranges later Tuesday and into Wednesday bringing a period of showers frequent at times Wednesday. Much colder air spreads across the region through Wednesday. Chance of sleet/hail during Wednesday and overnight into Thursday, slight risk of a few snow flurries across higher parts later on Wednesday and overnight into Thursday morning. Another high pressure system builds towards the Bight and lower SA Thursday then moves towards northern Victoria and NSW Friday to the next weekend.

DAILY WEATHER EXPECTATIONS.

MONDAY 7/6/10.
Areas of hill mist and drizzle in the morning then a partly cloudy and cold day with lighter south winds. Further overnight hill mist mainly southern slopes and ridges, clearer conditions over the northern slopes may lead to frost by early morning. MIN TEMPS 3 to 5c MAX TEMPS 7 to 10c.

TUESDAY 8/6/10.
Patchy hill mist mainly southern slopes and ridges, patchy possibly locally severe frost a risk this morning across the northern slopes, then a partly cloudy day with sunny breaks. Northerly/northwest winds freshening by afternoon and becoming gusty towards evening and overnight, cloud thickening through the afternoon, local drizzle or showers later or overnight. MIN TEMPS -2 to +3c MAX TEMPS 8 to 11c.

WEDNESDAY 9/6/10.
Cloudy with showers tending to rain and drizzle at times, strong northwest winds shifting southwest through the day, further showers to follow with sunny breaks in the afternoon, much colder through the afternoon. Local hail or sleet later and a chance of a few snow flurries mainly higher parts overnight into Thursday morning. MIN TEMPS 4 to 6c MAX TEMPS 7 to 9c lowering closer to 2 to 4c later in the day.

THURSDAY 10/6/10.
Areas of hill mist and scattered showers or drizzle, chance of sleet or snow flurries early mainly higher parts, strong occasionally squally southwest winds gradually moderating, a few sunny breaks through the day, moderate wind chill conditions. MIN TEMPS 0 to +2c MAX TEMPS 6 to 8c.

FRIDAY 11/6/10.
Patchy hill mist and areas of drizzle at times, a cold and cloudy day with occasional brighter spells mainly afternoon, fresh south or southwest winds. MIN TEMPS 2 to 4c MAX TEMPS 6 to 9c.

SATURDAY 12/6/10.
Patchy hill mist and isolated drizzle mainly southern slopes, patchy frost a risk over the northern slopes early, then a partly cloudy day with southwest or west winds. MIN TEMPS -1 to +3c MAX TEMPS 8 to 11c.

SUNDAY 13/6/10.
Areas of early mist and frost, then a sunny day apart from patchy cloud at times in the afternoon, light winds. MIN TEMPS -3 to 0c MAX TEMPS 9 to 12c.

(website due back midweek)

[Karl Lijnders]

Latest models holding good prospects for most regions of southern VIC. Latest US, OCF, Norweigen and LAPS suite have the best falls over E Central and coastal areas.

Currently anticipating 20-35mm out here with a healthy burst of rain Wednesday.

Cold fronts lining up for Friday and Saturday.

[Rhino]

Anticipating 2-3mm here for the week, just annoying light showers, certainly sth of the ranges setup again. Nice deep NW infeed must be getting closer by the day I hope.

Rhino.

[Karl Lijnders]

US has handled the sequence pretty well sticking with 10-30mm for the region and I am expecting between that here.

Should 10-15mm tomorrow.

Odd shower likely today as well.

[Blackee]

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the Alpine Areas, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts.
Issued at 4:12 pm EST on Tuesday 8 June 2010.

Weather Situation
A low pressure system off the central coast of New South Wales is expected to weaken and move slowly eastwards during Monday.

Damaging winds averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts around 90 km/h are forecast for parts of the Alpine Areas and West and South Gippsland forecast districts Wednesday.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

People should not park or shelter under trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Tuesday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300-659-217*.


Warning to Sheep Graziers
for the Alpine Areas, Western, North Central, Wimmera, Central, West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts.
Issued at 4:21 pm EST on Tuesday 8 June 2010.

Sheep Graziers in the Western, North Central, Central, West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts and parts of the Wimmera and Alpine Areas forecast districts are warned that moderate snow showers down to 1000 metres, showers, temperatures down to 2 degrees and winds averaging up to 45 km/h are expected during Wednesday. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Tuesday.

[Karl Lijnders]

Well I agree with DJ.

Should see showers ave drizzle develop overnight.

[Petros]

My expectations are for the "real" arrival of winter here tomorrow arvo/night with wind and rain rattling the windows that face SW.

I reckon a total of 4mm for here over next 3 days. Surely near a foot of snow though so the mountains will look great when we get to see them again (maybe Friday morning?).

[mick]

Cold northerly this arvo always heralds a cold snap here.

[Karl Lijnders]

True Mick. 11C here today. It's only June!!!

Good to see somewhat normal winter weather.

Front looking good on sat pic and should condense into a sizeable rain area over the state in the next 6-12hrs.

[rikjpool]

Had a couple of nice quick showers this afternoon, when I say showers i mean the good ol' Winter Drizzle.

Was good to see something come from clouds that looked like they would be doing nothing a few weeks ago now starting to drop their precip!

Cant wait to see some Glaciated CB's on approach tomorrow morning...

[mick]

Some showers here now, blooming off the bay not much in em but big drops!

[Karl Lijnders]

Still a few showers about the central ranges presently. Should see activity increase from the west overnight.

Got a nice squally band of rain moving into the SW of the state and this should reach Melbourne by around 4-6am. A wet start to the day with showers to follow with the hail and thunder kicking in as the cold air and daytime heating interact.

Edit: Latest US holding 25mm+ for the eastern suburbs and around 10-20mm elsewhere.

[Blackee]

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the Alpine Areas, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts.
Issued at 10:56 pm EST on Tuesday 8 June 2010.

Weather Situation
An active cold front near the southwest coast will move through Victoria overnight and during Wednesday.
Damaging winds averaging 50 km/h with peak gusts around 90 km/h are forecast for parts of the Alpine, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
People should not park or shelter under trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EST Wednesday.

[Lily]

Melbourne radar is down, airport radar is showing an area of showers stretching from Beaufort to Cape Otway/Lorne on the coast, moving from the SW towards Melbourne (right on cue as predicted, Karl!). Strange though, radar also has a patchy area moving in from the complete opposite direction over Warragul/Thomson way, appears to be an area of light rain coming in from the E/SE.