Could be in for more persistent rainfall in Melbourne after 6pm with another thunderstorm possible. Should see some showers follow but the majority will be about the southern and coastal suburbs with hail and thunder.
warm and windy start to the day today. Cloud increased nice Cu and distant Cb anvils to the far WSW driving to work. A classic cold front with prefrontal trough hit here around 2pm. Light rain to start with temps dropped and then the real stuff started. A couple of good CGs and thunder that nearly shook apart VicRoads Ballarat office. So far 16mm steady rain atm no wind to speak of.
Great to see that wind die down, it was horrible here over the last 24hours. Only picked up a couple of mm and the temp has dropped to an even 11C. was up around 20C earlier, awful.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
droughtbreaker wrote:I know I'm usually wrong when I make predictions but does anyone agree that the BOM forecasts looks too warm for Wednesday/Thursday in particular? Models have 0C 850T on Wednesday ............
What a contrast from today!
Would you believe we got to 26.7C here today with a moderate NNW'ly during the early part of the arvo, calm and 21.5C outside now, baro at 1008 hPa and sky darkening with mid level cloud. Change (if we get one) shouldnt be far away going by the baro and latest MLAPS progs. MLAPS shows us tallying 5mm or better tonight post 1008 hPa so it would be good if we got that. We had to water the Golf Club again last week.
Pretty crap system for here. Not even checking the gauge because it's not worth it. Saw a few CGs coming home on the train around Lancefield.
8.6C here now. Just under 18C maximum. Not unusual for early May to get 18C here and 23C in Melbourne, in fact it is unusual not to have days of this temp. If you check through the records year by year only the occasional year does not have a temp around 22C-24C early in the month for Melb.
hillybilly wrote:Amazing pick by EC on the timing which has had rain mid afternoon through Melbourne for a couple of days. It had 10mm for Melbourne so only 8mm to go to get the total spot on.
I was 100% confident the 'rain' (more like scattered showers) would come in around 3pm-4pm and not midday as BOM's forecast system suggested. I am actually surprised it only got to 23.6C in Melbourne with the cloud and precipitation coming in later than forecast and 850T a degree or two warmer today than yesterday I seriously thought a 25C was on the cards. As I have said many times though, I usually get it wrong when I think I'm on to something. Still good to see the temp revised down to 16C tomorrow for Melbourne. I think we'll see most suburbs, particularly eastern and northern suburbs, recording something closer to 14C to 15C maximums.
There's been a really irritating pattern since the start of April where rain bands are not forming until they pass east of the city. It has nothing to do with the bay effect, as you can see on radar Echuca is inside the rain band but we have completely missed it here and just got schizo showers darting around us which we have dodged most of. These are the sort of systems that really get me poured off with the weather.
Yeah same up here too. They seem to be forming about on the river near Kerang and upto robinvale Mildura. Further west misses out and it REALLY annoying
It looks like we are under a down-slide effect of an upper low however weather maps do not show any low, am I getting confused with something else which is happening? Check out the 512km loop. Looks like there is an up-slide affecting Western Vic as well?
Thats the sharpening upper level trough ILS...good too see some good falls about the place, and it looks like the cold air field is pushing Ne enough that most of Southern Vic may get some follow up showers..