Our new rainfall pattern in autumn in the southeast?

[droughtbreaker]

Interesting though to see that lower level soil moisture is near record low levels for the Melbourne area and pretty much everywhere south of the ranges, but locally on the ranges here and right up towards the border through the middle of the state as well as the NE ranges it is average to above average. Upper level moisture will swing wildly from week to week, one week it will be near the driest on record the next week it might be average to above average if you get a big rain event and little evaporation.
Low level moisture remains much more consistent and changes more slowly.

[droughtbreaker]

Long term model progs not looking good with the Autumn pattern continuing well into June. Highs way too far south and no penetration of the westerlies whatsoever. It is all consistent with the topic of this thread and what we have been seeing for most of the past 13 years. The situation is usually rectified by July/August.

[johnno]

Well here are the Deciles for Autumn 2010 across Australia & after a good Summer for most it also looks good to me with most of South Australia, 60% of Victoria, most of NSW, alot of NT & Qld all had above or well above average rainfall for Autumn so hopefully this is our "new" rainfall for the SE Australia cos from what I can see alot of it had more than the average rainfall


http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... h&area=nat



Victoria up closer..


http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... th&area=vc

Looks to be a wetter than normal Victoria as a whole compared to the normal average Autumn rainfall which makes it the wettest Autumn since at least 1996

[Anthony Violi]

Yes agree Johnno, would be very nice if this is our new autumn rainfall. Even WA would have increased, but will look at the figures over the next few days.

Those graphs are unequivocal evidence that the majority of Australia has has a significantly larger YTD rainfall through the autumn.

So aside from the CBDesert, which has consistently missed out since March, i look forward to another wet autumn next year.

[johnno]

See this is the problem I have when you put your spin on things David.. Coastal Victoria isn't just SE or Southern Australia! Just like Melbourne isn't Victoria! People choose where they want to live no one forces them to live where they are.

2nd Point ..Southern areas of Victoria makes up around 5-10% of SE and Southern Australia If that interms of land? comparing 3 days of cool weather in a month to 9 or 12 months months of excellent rainfall for Southern Australia is chalk and cheese mate the 2 don't even match, this isn't 1 great month out of 5 months anymore David this isn't a flash in the pan anymore as your trying to suggest.

We been hearing for years that Southern Australia is meant to get drier and drier and the last year as shown otherwise in my book & bucked the trend, Southern Australia takes in all of Victoria & not just Melbourne and Ferny Creek, South Australia which is common sense! and most of NSW all make up Southern & SE Australia IMO & also Tasmania of course, the maps speak for themselves but once again you continue to snub and not aknowledge that alot of SE and Southern Australia has had a very good run over the past year and continue to put your negative spin on things making things out to be bad when in reality they have improved & improved by a fair margin too as a whole for SE Australia.


Last 9 months deciles taking in Spring, Summer & Autumn for Australia..

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... h&area=nat

Last Year deciles taking in all the 4 seasons...

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... h&area=nat

You keep telling us how "hot" the last 12 months have been but heres a thought try and find something as Wet and as widespread for the past 12 months in recent times decile map! from Winter to Autumn of the next Year I bet you will have trouble finding something as wet and as widespread in recent times for at least 15 years if not more from that time span June 1st to May 31st of the next year... But prove me wrong if you can. Hardly a flash in the pan.

[Karl Lijnders]

I'm going to have to agree with DJ here. On a stars basis, rainfall is increasing over the north and inland, VIC is drying over the colder months. The past 15yrs have provided us with that.

We need another 10 years of the last 10 months of weather to turn it back around. We mat have already started that trend but it is too early to be sure.

June looks dry to me till mid month but again who knows theses days. Computer modelling doesn't handle suprises. Fingers crossed.

[Anthony Violi]

Um Canberra had it's wettest autumn for 20 years, and Perth it's coldest May in 15 years..things are definitely changing...Sydney also had it wettest may in 7 years, bendigo it's third wettest autumn ever. Then looking at the charts there are cut offs progged all over the place by all the models.

Definitely in a changing phase...

[johnno]

From the BOM..

Victoria in autumn 2010: Warm with above average rainfall in most areas


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/s ... mary.shtml

[johnno]

Melbourne CBD may of had a drier than normal Autumn compared to the North of the state but where it matters more (Melbourne catchments) it was actually wetter than normal Autumn 2010 by 9% when was the last time that happend? Would say it was either 2000 or 1996 so a very good result. This information is provied by Melbourne water.


Figures released today show that between 1 March and 31 May:
• Rainfall over major catchments was 239mm (9 per cent above average);
• Inflows into major storages was 47 billion litres (4 per cent below average);
• Storages dropped by 39 billion litres from 34.9 per cent full to 32.7 per cent.
• Average consumption fell by 1 per cent to 976.8 million litres per day compared with Autumn 2009


http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/component ... 10595.html

[johnno]

We keep hearing Melbourne once again had a drier than normal Autumn well the City did but 99.5% of us don't live in the City and live in the suburbs and here is the real story for Autumn 2010 for Melbourne. This is from Melbourne water.


AUTUMN RAIN ABOVE PAR FOR MOST OF MELBOURNE

http://thesource.melbournewater.com.au/ ... 100604.asp

Looks like 80% of Melbourne actually had a wetter than normal Autumn even the normally dry Western suburbs were wetter than normal this Autumn.

So not only was most of Victoria especially Northern Victoria wetter than normal this Autumn not only were Melbourne dams slightly wetter than normal but most of Melbourne Metropolition was.

[Anthony Violi]

It should never rain in the CBdesert...it doesnt need too. Hardly anyone lives there so climate change has done us a favour.

Hopefully it misses them for the rest of the year. Meanwhile the catchments are getting swamped...couldnt ask for anything better!!

[daviescr]

It should never rain in the CBdesert...it doesnt need too. Hardly anyone lives there so climate change has done us a favour.

Hopefully it misses them for the rest of the year. Meanwhile the catchments are getting swamped...couldnt ask for anything better!!

You're absolutely right Anthony, absolutely no need for any rain in the CBD at all, come to think of it, most of suburbia (east anyway) doesn't really need half of what we've had in the last 12 months - I wonder how much water we suburbanites use in daily life is actually from this region? I would guess it's less than 1%

At the end of the day, who cares if the back yard is a little yellow for 4 months of the year? I for one don't - my dog peeing on it does a good enough job of that, so browning off does me a favour evening things out - It's purely aesthetic. that is all. Any water that does fall is either captured by individuals, thus is negated from the equation, and pretty much all of the rest literally goes down the drain, washing all our pesticides, heavy metals and cigarrette ends into the bay.

As you say,'tis far better that the majority of the rain falls in the mainly pristine catchments so we can at least have drinkable water.

[droughtbreaker]

Autumn ended up about 6mm above the average here, April and May were both below though, May was well below. Not a disaster though by any stretch, now that we are in winter, evaporation will be very low so things will green up soon enough, it is already starting to a bit. We'll start seeing significant run off in the catchments soon and we are starting from a pretty good position, could expect to nudge up towards 50% capacity by the end of the year.

Still, the pattern of the past 2 months has seen large highs well south of where they should be, slow moving blocking patterns and a lack of decent changes, we had mostly WNW winds yet again hence the very warm temps. It is starting to become a bit frustrating that we see this year after year at this time of year.

IMO Autumn rainfall is not that important though. The most important time for rain here is mid winter through to summer. At this time of year we see the major run off into our dams, plant growth in spring/summer (native vegetation, crops, gardens), and in summer frequent rainfall eases the fire threat. In Autumn plants are heading into dormancy, we don't get much run off thanks to dry soil from summer and the bushfire threat has eased right off. It is what happens for the next 6 months that is really important.

[johnno]

Andrew - Try telling that to the Many many farmers in this state who heavily depend on the Autumn break, to say Autumn rainfall is not that important is wrong IMO.

Also Autumn rainfall is very important it determines how much runoff you get coming into Winter (given Winter you at least get average rainfall or more) If you have a dry Autumn and average rainfall during Winter the dams are dry and takes them well into the Winter usually late Winter before you start seeing any proper runoff but if you have a good Autumn the dams and soils aren't so dry and you start seeing run off earlier than normal eg 6-7 weeks earlier & in that 6 to 7 weeks you can see alot of gains so I will have to totally disagree with you last comments. Rainfall in Autumn is as important as Winter and Spring it usually sets up the rest of the year interms of runoff and so on.