Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:00 pm

Looks like a slow warm up ahead of a warm couple of days. Stronger front around Tuesday which looks like it might finally produce a better fall of rain. Not too confident on totals, but after weeks with very little anything would be welcome.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Thu Mar 14, 2024 7:23 pm

12 C and drizzly here - feels quite cold after our mini March heatwave. Models are still trying to give us something significant midweek, but my confidence is a little shot after the last 6 weeks!

Post by **hillybilly** » Fri Mar 15, 2024 8:33 pm

Quite like the look of the progs. Humid trough Monday, strong front Tuesday, follow up from for Wednesday and potential for a nice cool’s outbreak for about Friday. All wiggling a bit in the models, but certainly looks like our best chance in a couple of months.

Meanwhile a warm weekend ahead, locally hot. The cranking monsoon in the north is causing quite a lot of subsidence in the subtropical ridge atm with quite hot air aloft.

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Mar 17, 2024 6:32 am

Quite a warm one yesterday, and Sunday and Monday will be warmer again. Quite a few showers and the odd storm for VIC the next two days, mostly focussed in the north. TAS activity will be a bit more sparse. Strong front then for Tuesday.

Activity next few days is very patch, but Tuesday to Wednesday is much more extensive. Liking the look of the progs here with moderate to possibly heavy falls for much of TAS with a nice cold pool for mid week. Will bring some decent snow on the peaks down here.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Sun Mar 17, 2024 8:51 pm

Hmmm... our hopes for this system seem to be fading with every model run. Synoptics and moisture look good, but for west central Vic at least, the computer says no.

Seem to be in a bit of a no rainfall hole lately, with rain to the west, east, north - and even south... but not here.

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:55 am

Gordon wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 8:51 pm Hmmm... our hopes for this system seem to be fading with every model run. Synoptics and moisture look good, but for west central Vic at least, the computer says no.

Seem to be in a bit of a no rainfall hole lately, with rain to the west, east, north - and even south... but not here.

Yep. Another bust I fear for many. Warm to hot one today. Tomorrow, well eastern VIC looks ok and so does western Tasmania. In between goes from 20mm to 0mm.

Starting to see a lot of canopy die back here now as the drought and record warmth takes a toll. Mostly pretty minor, but never good to see

Hope the plants, animals, rivers etc get a drink soon as it’s quite horrible to see.

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Mon Mar 18, 2024 10:24 am

Yeah it's not looking promising for this week. Maybe parts of the north/north east of Vic might also get a bit. West central and further west is looking mostly dry now. Model runs seem highly volatile at the moment, which is never a great sign.

This has been an extreme couple of months. We've had a mere 3mm for March. Also seeing trees suffering now, with some that have gone into early autumn leaf drop due to stress and some smaller ones looking like they might be dying. For here, this has been an even drier Feb/March than 2019. And it's crazy to think we spent the first half of summer with water logged ground. It doesn't take long for the heat, sun and wind to transport it all away.

On the plus side, much of eastern Australia, including inland areas, looks set to be very wet over the next couple of weeks. The conditions are there, but the synoptics just haven't been lining up for those of us further south. The high pressure belt has been especially dominant and relentless these past couple of months. SAM has turned negative though, so who knows, maybe there is a chance of one or two strong cold fronts to emerge?

Australis(Shell3155) · Tue Mar 19, 2024 3:04 am

Saying
30c
90% 10 - 20….

Well ok.. yes plz..

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 6:44 am

Crazy warm night here for the second half of March. Dipped briefly to 17C but back up to 20C by 6am. It’s really humid with a DP or 16C currently.

Expecting quite a lot of convection today for both VIC and TAS, but progs keep it mostly east of Melbourne and for TAS out of the southeast. Could be close with very tight gradients.

Expecting perhaps 2-5mm for both CBDs, but hoping they do a fair bit better.

Nice cold pool for tomorrow with snow on the mountains down here, and much cooler for VIC but system dries out pretty quick.

Skywalker · Post by **Skywalker** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 2:37 pm

Another rather pathetic lazy effort by the BOM today with their continued "all eggs in one basket" approach to their forecast.

The big dry continues. At least I get to ride home tonight with a nice cool tail wind behind me.

Post by **Blackee** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 4:13 pm

Parts of NE Vic doing ok so far with a few 10-20-mm falls already. Dry as in Melb

Lucia · Post by **Lucia** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 5:26 pm

When you are on Tank water, as we are, it is particularly disappointing

Dane · Post by **Dane** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 5:44 pm

Big dry continues here in Ballarat just 6.6mm's in the last 53 days at my place in Sebastopol.
Only one day with more than one mm in that time.
MTD is 0.2mm's at my place the same at Ballarat Airport.

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 9:33 pm

Complete bust here

1mm from two brief thundery showers. MTD is about 15mm after 15mm last month. With all the heat it’s so so dry now.

Max today was a hot 31C. Not record breaking, but certainly unusual for this time of year.

Sharply colder tomorrow, with heavy showers for western TAS, and maybe dribbles elsewhere. Some light snow on the mountain here.

Unfortunately not seeing anything really in the progs between now and April. Going to start setting lots of dry records soon if it’s doesn’t start to rain again. Fronts for western TAS, but the rest of the southeast is gonna be mainly dry.

Australis(Shell3155) · Wed Mar 20, 2024 4:11 am

Tuesday dry.
Zip to the 20mm
And no thunderstorm as noted in the charts.
Although 12 - 1am 4mm is noted online….. more required.

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Mar 20, 2024 6:39 am

Picked up another mm overnight so nearly 2mm. Cool this morning, almost cold. Should snow on the mountain shortly.

Great event for western half and the northern tier of TAS, and a small part of eastern VIC. Otherwise another dud. The SAMs dived negative which will mean low rainfall for much of southern Oz next week or so away from the far south. TAS is set to get a series of really sharp fronts but they aren’t linking with moisture so not much away from the west.

Maybe, possibly who knows something developing out of the tropics next weekend??

Pengaz · Post by **Pengaz** » Wed Mar 20, 2024 10:42 am

Managed to luckily snag 10.5mm out of this one, mostly overnight from showers when the colder southwesterly flow kicked in. Great result.

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Wed Mar 20, 2024 1:10 pm

Nothing here unfortunately. Currently on 15c, which is our max so far for the day, so a fairly cool and windy one.

Dane · Post by **Dane** » Wed Mar 20, 2024 1:53 pm

Got some light showers late last night
0.4mm's all up MTD is 0.6mm's
The Airport got 0.2mm's MTD is 0.4mm's
Record March low is 2.2mm's in 1923

Quasar217 · Post by **Quasar217** » Wed Mar 20, 2024 6:44 pm

2.4mm here in Ringwood North - enough to slightly dampen the parched ground for a few hours. Up to 6mm total for March so far now. After 13mm in February - 9mm of which came from a freak standing storm exactly a month ago today.