Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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New substantial system showing up on the progs, with this one looking to favour Tasmania and perhaps parts of southern Victoria. Will keep the green summer going in Victoria, and hopefully put a dint in the drought affecting parts of Tasmania.
A trough starts to deepen on Monday, morning a cut off low on Tuesday. Rain and storms becoming widespread. No doubt models will wiggle between now and next week.
Thanks for starting this thread hillybilly. Models are still messy, but to my untrained eye seem to be firming - and we need somewhere to discuss this system(s)!
GFS don't seem interested anymore on their latest run, just a weakish summer front followed by heat on the days following 20/1. ACCESS G still keen though. Pretty divergent forecasts only a few days out.
Yes just a 5% chance of Rain in Ballarat today according to the BOM but there has been very light intermitant rain here since 1pm and even now there is still the odd spot.
Only 0.2mm's in the gauge at my place (Sebastopol) and the same amount at Ballarat Airport.
Temperature Maxed out at 17.7c here and 18.9c at Ballarat Airport.
Yesterday I reached 33.8c and Ballarat Airport was 32.5c
This system isn't getting any clearer! Yesterday, BOM's 4 dayer had the low center moving through central Bass Strait. Now they have it basically transiting south of Tassie
Models almost settled down. System is a bit slower moving into western areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The parent low then (strangely) moves northeast to cross near Tasmania around Thursday. Moderate to heavy falls for much of Tasmania, but hit and miss for Victoria. Quite warm ahead of the low with Hobart likely to approach 30C - highest so far this summer has been a very pleasant 28C.
Btw watch for the developing tropical depression. Could spread a putrid airmass over southern Australia. Latest EC has 850Ts over 30C into Victoria with precipitable water values over 50mm in just over a week.
Thunder has been rumbling around for the last hour here but not much rain
just 0.8mm's here in Sebastopol and nothing at all at Ballarat Airport.
Temp down to 22c here now DP is 18c.
Reached 28.2c this afternoon 28.5c at the Airport