stevco123 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:21 pm
The last time BoM had a conference advising of 200mm falls, it failed spectacularly. People were told to go home early from work, change plans etc. In the end, something like 5mm fell.
At least they're abandoning their el nino narrative. Should've listened to other amateur meteorologists who declared a very wet period from November 2023 and all through 2024.
El Nino narrative? It's clearly there, albeit weakening:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDYOC062 ... maly.shtml
It's not their fault its effects are abnormal/contrary to expectation.
Re. the rainfall, it's fraught. The problem is whenever we have these major systems, the focus jumps around in the models, and looks to be locking in until jumping to the usual spot on the day; that is, NE Vic, SE NSW (where all these systems are obsessed with honing).
EC has been toying with Melbourne. Around 25-30mm seems likely, however 100mm is entirely possible given the available moisture and the potential breadth of this system. I tend to err on the conservative side, as we've seen Melbourne in the firing zone multiple times only for the hills to stop everything like a forcefield of Himalayan proportions, but who knows.