The Australian Weather Forum

Time for a new thread. As discussed a few times in the previous thread, it's beginning to look a lot like (a wet) Christmas.

Now all but two models I can see predict a rainy period, starting as early as the 23rd.

Very quiet on here... what am I missing? Or is it just Christmas shopping bumping weather down the list ?

Yeah a busy time of year Gordon. Wish it was storm busy

Wet alright. Could be more than 50mm here going by most of this morning's forecast models...

Good thing we organised our main outdoor family gathering for Saturday.

Reasonably breezy overnight FTG,

Pleasant with Sun now... yes with sun.. think I saw blue skies yesterday also.. this is something new..

.

I don’t think I can remember a December dominated by so many trough’s and easterly weather events. Christmas Day synoptics look like making Gippsland even soggier (if that’s possible!)

'Possible heavy falls' now in our BOM forecast for Christmas Day. That's up from 'Possible shower' yesterday morning, then 'Showers' yesterday afternoon. Apparently, BOM like to break it to us gently!

Will be great to get more rain, although not looking forward to the Christmas drive across Melbourne, which is never fun at the best of times...

Yes Gordon - BOM sitting on the fence a bit Melbourne 2 - 25 mm Christmas Day and 0 -10mm Boxing Day

Been busy and waiting for this one to settle down. Unfortunately looks like it may well be a miss for Tasmania. Cracking low, with lots of storms for VIC, quite probably severe on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Unfortunately for down here it tends to drift almost west to east so doesn’t get much south of about Flinders Island.

Fortunately not very strong pressure gradients so hopefully will avoid the gales that can happen with an east coast low with so many people headed to the coast and the big boat race starting on Tuesday.

Could also get a sharp for summer cold outbreak on the backend. Cold enough for snow down here on the peaks and maybe into Victoria.

Must say I’m enjoying this summer so far with the scorching heat way mostly north of about Mildura, though would be good to get a but more rain locally. It’s not unusually dry but we’ve missed a couple of events down here which is unusual for easterly events.

I'm at the point of modifying travel plans this Christmas Day due to the threat of severe storms unloading large rain quantities on our place.

Looking ominous. Thinking 30-80mm is possible here.

Looks like most of Vic will see rain/storms over the Christmas long weekend, mainly starting later in the day on Sunday, with falls occurring through to boxing day. At this stage, the biggest totals look likely in northern Vic and maybe west central, but there is still a bit of inconsistency across models on the placement of the low and resulting rainfall.

A fairly calm, pleasant day here today and 16c. The past couple of days have featured gusty southerly winds, but at least they haven't been hot northerlies and heatwaves. Quite a contrast to what would typically happen with an El Nino and positive IOD!

A wet rainy Christmas present! Sounds good to me.
We are in Bali. Been here for five days and not back until the 28th. We were expecting high humidity and rain at times but so far it has been dry as a bone and no real humidity. Very pleasant indeed.

GFS has pushed the LOW further east? Big falls predicted in East Gippsland and Southern coast of NSW

UKMet 12Z made me laugh this morning with 222mm forecast just to our West.

BOM WATL has 40mm which is more realistic. Christmas Day morning/lunchtime could be quite volatile. I've cleaned out the spouting around the house...

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:40 am I'm at the point of modifying travel plans this Christmas Day due to the threat of severe storms unloading large rain quantities on our place.

I wish that was an option for us - not looking like the best day for a trip to the eastern suburbs! Only slight positive is it looks slightly less wet there than here...

I'm always overly cautious with these types of setups. BoM will get heavily criticised if it ends up being a mostly fine day. They're already in deep **** over the Cairns flood emergency. Years of cutbacks and "streamlining" is coming back to haunt them now.

They need to come out with a precise forecast tomorrow so people in all parts of Melbourne know what to expect precisely whether they live in the north, south, east, west.
Models are jumpy still and currently have anywhere from 5 to 60mm across the city.
Is this amount going to fall as continuous rain the whole day, or come in the form of a wave or front at some point, or is just thr chance of storms? These things matter, otherwise so many Christmas lunches can be ruined, or could have happened but didn't

stevco123 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2023 11:06 am I'm always overly cautious with these types of setups. BoM will get heavily criticised if it ends up being a mostly fine day. They're already in deep **** over the Cairns flood emergency. Years of cutbacks and "streamlining" is coming back to haunt them now.

They need to come out with a precise forecast tomorrow so people in all parts of Melbourne know what to expect precisely whether they live in the north, south, east, west.
Models are jumpy still and currently have anywhere from 5 to 60mm across the city.
Is this amount going to fall as continuous rain the whole day, or come in the form of a wave or front at some point, or is just thr chance of storms? These things matter, otherwise so many Christmas lunches can be ruined, or could have happened but didn't

There's frankly too many variables in the mix before any precise forecast can be made, even 2 days out.

Cold fronts and warm fronts have now appeared on the BOM 4 dayer that weren't there yesterday. Lots of complexity.

Gordon wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2023 4:05 pm Cold fronts and warm fronts have now appeared on the BOM 4 dayer that weren't there yesterday. Lots of complexity.

Even an occluded front in the mix. Interesting.

Three bigs days of showers and storms spreading to rain starting today. Looks very wet for VIC, particular west central through Wimmera but no where will miss out. Looks to me that rain will be the main threat as skies look very murky with high humidity and lots of cloud.

Down in Tas we are largely spectators. Some showers and storms today, mainly inland then some showers higging the east coast but basically warm and nice weather down here. Tis a bit dry so would have definitely appreciated some rain, but such is the weather.

Really interesting that the monsoon still seems to be missing. The current summer reminds me a bit of 1991/92 with stinking hot conditions up north and a poor monsoon, while the southeast was relatively cool and rather wet. The planets about a degree hotter than back then so it’s all relative, but we are enjoying a remarkable lack of heat atm in VIC and TAS while those living in the subtropics and tropics have days of high heat.