The Australian Weather Forum

Thread for the coming low. Looks like the best rainfall event for some months, perhaps locally a year. Biggest falls through the eastern third of VIC and northeast Tas, but hopefully everyone gets a bit.

Will be a notable snow event on the tail end, though being mid spring it won’t stick for long.

Looks like a big event for eastern parts, and could be quite a shock in areas that have been dry for months.

Hoping we’ll see a bit here too, although we’re skirting the edge, so just have to keep the fingers crossed. Even 10-20mm would be welcome as a temporary antidote to the big dry. We have finished September on 18mm. Certainly the driest September I have ever experienced. We also finish with an average max of 18c, which is almost 4c above average. That just seems crazy for what typically feels like a winter month here.

Surprisingly, the landscape still has a fair bit of green in it. Obviously there has been some reasonable soil moisture after a wet autumn. But the green is steadily disappearing, especially with all the wind, and more to come tonight unfortunately.

Storms really starting to fire along the SA border.

Mildura in the firing line.

27.5c 3.49am
Warm
Windy

Around here it is eerily quiet - hardly any wind - unusual for here! Even the top of the hill (Kilmore Gap AWS) doesn't have a lot (max gust 60k) in comparison to elsewhere. The light rain has dropped the temp from 20 to 17 in the space of 30 mins.

That shot of warm air during the night was bizarre for this time of year. Woke up to a howling north westerly at 3.30 that appears to be the reason for the jump from 12c at 2am to 27.6c at 4am. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before.

Back to calm and trying to rain here now, but sure how we will fare from this event. Tend to get rain shadowed from the NW and the SE, so wouldn’t be surprised if we are on the lower end of the rain totals.

Heavy rain here and the odd rumble. Radar looks good. (Fingers crossed!)

3mm so far. Very humid subtropical feel outside.

BOM have also upped the 50% chance to 20mm. Looks promising.

Pouring rain in Bendigo this morning. Main rain-band seems to be positioned slightly West of where the forecast models predicted.

Almost 7mm so far. A wild morning with gusty winds and steady rain, briefly heavy at times. Great to finally see some rain...

Moderate/heavy rain here in bayside since 9. [smention u=139]Pengaz[/smention] that temperature bump is incredible, espectically for early October.

18mm so far at at home at Mt Macedon. Veryyyyhapppyyy!

20mm exactly from that round. Good start and certainly a 'pass'.

What a great system unfolding after record hot and dry Sept and so much more to come.
Like last Octobers event but no strong NW infeed or high low level moisture this time but still big totals in E, NE Vic and parts off central also see over 50mm for sure.

Wave after wave, of rain on back edge of front as upper trough contuines to stand up over SA and will bomb into low over NSW/East Vic late tomorrow.
This rain might save crops across northern and NW parts of Vic possibly Wimmera too, so hopefully a billion dollar rain event saving tons of crops.

Everywhere bar far SW Vic will do great out of this event and much nedded, all fires will all be out in Gippy on Thursday.
Widespread 100 to 200mm in Alps and parts of NE and SE Vic and much of gippy with isol 250mm in mountions

16mm so far easy double that next 2 days should see 40mm for event easy

22mm so far today here. A magnificent drop.

This is good finishing rains for most crops. If it dries out quick, it'll be very high quality in the main too.

NE Vic really starting to get some part of the action now.

Solid heavy rain here atm. Really tropical like. Been pretty consistent since last post with only a few lighter spells during the day. Puddles everywhere in the yard.

Haven’t checked what we’ve had, but looking at other amateur stations around the town I’d say somewhere between 20mm-30mm.

Over 50mm already in the Alps and just getting started their isol 200mm in spots for sure by Friday
Easy Moderate flooding with that up there on some rivers

50mm also getting close for parts of North Central and far east Melbourne with few hours more to come could see 70 80mm in spots maybe more.

Even near 20mm up Mildura way very handy for then after week of low to mid 30s up there

Pengz easy 100mm for you this event I reckon huge puddles backyard be pool tomorrow or tonight lol lots more to come

18mm here light rain still falling its nice

A great fall, steady for most of the day, light to medium with 26mm thus far. Certainly great for the garden which was getting like powder in places.

19 mm here so far.

Ripper event for the eastern half of VIC. Probably excessive for parts of the northeast. Progs basically nailed the gradient with as little as 5mm in the western burbs but over 50mm in the east.

That heat is extraordinary. No wonder the fires in Gippsland took a big run overnight

Unfortunately a miss for most of TAS. Will rain solidly in the northeast and be showers in the south, but not a lot in it for most.