Upper trough followed by deep slow moving low: July 3-10

[hillybilly]

A slow moving quite wet system with the upper trough over central Australia drifting south then merging with a big low in the westerlies. Will produce more good falls for northern Victoria and western Tasmania. The system does tend to fade a bit as it heads east, so eastern areas likely to miss out.

System starts out very mild, so rain in the alps. Will cool, but tbh yet another fairly mild system for mid winter. We are still to see a proper cold outbreak for winter

[Gordon]

Watching with interest as I have a few days outdoors in far SW Vic from midweek...

Btw, finished June on 91.5mm; ytd 361.5mm

[Macedonian]

Boring weather lately. We have been stuck in fog cloud for six of the last seven days. It's getting old fast!

[stevco123]

Boring weather lately. We have been stuck in fog cloud for six of the last seven days. It's getting old fast!

Winter in Melbourne is generally boring. Same story every year. Maximums from 13 to 15 nearly every day.

[hillybilly]

Remarkably warm uppers atm, so if you are on a high hill or in the sun Tis very mild. We reached 16C here yesterday and the top of Mt Wellington 6C. In the Snowies the 9C at Perisher is less than 2C off the July record. Further north record rain and some local record low maxs, though seem to be only at shorter term sites (the cold).

Systems seems on track. Rain initially with the trough starting late on Tuesday. Progs looks more like La Niña than El Niño atm. Pretty clear that the exceptionally warm oceans globally and negative PDO are offsetting the eastern Pacific El Niño. It’s still struggling to spread into the central pacific. Strange strange set of drivers.

[StratoBendigo]

Looks like decent cold uppers in the mix by Saturday. Looking at 20-30mm possible here as well.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

No Sun - STILL

[hillybilly]

Rainy day ahead for northern and western vic. Be interesting to see what makes it over the ranges. The moisture plume is impressive with precipitable water values above 25mm in spots, but the upslide is weak. These setups usually struggle a bit to get over the central and eastern ranges. Rainy day in the alps

This first part hits northwest Tasmania, but mainly we have a grey day with little rain.

Big system south of Perth brings the second part to this system for later in the week. That part should bring snow back to the alps, though not very low. Might drop to just below 1000m in Victoria and about 800m in southern Tasmania. Still waiting for a lower level snow event down here

[StratoBendigo]

7mm yesterday. Overcast this morning again.

Not sure if the incoming fronts will have much punch now.

[snowfall]

8mm here from yesterday. Rained almost non-stop through the day and into the evening, but was very light. Quite a nice day today - calm with occasional breaks of sunshine, something we haven’t had much of lately!

[hillybilly]

Non event for Tas so far, basically as expected. Will start to pick up down here now with showers spready to heavy rain out west. This looks like a thumping system for anywhere exposed to the westerlies so coastal VIC, and west and central Tas. Very deep low pass just south of Hobart on Saturday. Will be a decent snow event in the alps. They are so lucky up there atm with each big system being just cold enough for snow. Subalpine has been basically snow free, but about 1400m is running pretty well.

Btw big storm surge and large waves on the coast. Melbourne will see one of its highest tides on record on Saturday. Same for other spots on the coast including Lakes Entrance. In some runs it’s been higher than anything previously seen, but currently sitting pretty close to the 2014 event around Melbourne. Very lucky down here in Tas with the timing. Last weekend was near the highest tides of the year. If this weekend system arrived a week back it would have been a very serious coastal flooding event. The trend is not our friend when it comes to storm surges.

[Blackee]

Bitterly cold morning here with 10mm overnight. Radar and satellite looking pretty good for the NE and looks like more decent alpine snow today down to around 1100m. Scary winds in the Alps this morning.

[snowfall]

3.8mm here. The wind has calmed down a bit this morning but was wild at times overnight.

[Gordon]

Been down the south-west Vic coast - glad we left ahead of the forecast 7m surf!

Back home, 8.5mm in the gauge in 48 hours to 9am, and a couple of mm since. Wild winds, but not quite as bad as I was expecting.

[StratoBendigo]

13mm in the gauge over the past few days. Gusty westerlies today. A little less than I was expecting, but useful nonetheless.

Sea surface temps are interesting atm. Leeuwin current is cooler than normal in the Bight, but Bass Strait is a bit toasty. Some reasonable snow accumulation today in the Alps.

[hillybilly]

Ripper westerly system with huge surf, potentially record high sea levels, and heap of rain (provided you are near the coast or face west) and highland snow. That said a pretty mild system for the coldest week of the year. Be a non event windy system for Melbourne.

Made it up to Kunanyi middle of the day down here and was the tiniest bit of snow but real feature was wind. The feel like temperature was -11C at the time due to the ripper wind chill.

Unfortunately won’t make it out onto the open coasts this weekend. The waves look crazy Really would have like to have gone to Shipstern Bluff to get some shots but won’t make it

[Skywalker]

Absolutely disgusting conditions down here on the island. About as bad as it can get.

If I'm brave enough I might go for a stroll & check out the tide, Only thing is our beach is north facing so not expecting anything unusual to occur damage wise.

[hillybilly]

Wild night down here south of Hobart. Heavy showers, many with hail and big gusts of wind. Just shy of 20mm in the gauge.

In the higher parts quite a few spots topped 30mm. Strong river rises in the upper Huon though currently staying just below warning thresholds. This strong westerly stream goes for the rest of the week so more big falls to come.

Cracking system for the alps. These relatively dry strong westerly systems are very efficient snow producers. Looks like near 50cm in the Snowies, while down here Kunanyi picked up about a foot overnight. First decent snow here since April.

Seen a few reports on the storm surge. Was flooding along the Southbank and on a few streets in South Melbourne and a few spots in Gippsland. Water levels peaked about 15cm below the 2014 record so not quite a record. Very lucky the system backed off a bit, as the earlier progs had the surge about 40cm higher which would have cause a lot of flooding. Be interesting to see what happened on the exposed beaches. A few spots including Fairhaven, Apollo Bay, Sommers and Inverloch are starting to have big issues with recession. Was a nasty system for all those spots.

[hillybilly]

Almost all the snow on the mountain melted in a day Back to mild nwly flow, which looks like sticking for the rest of the week. Looks like a really wet pattern for western Tas, and fairly wet for west coastal Victoria and the northeast ranges. Eastern Tas will catch a bit from each front. Temps far too mild for the middle coldests part of winter.

Expect it could be a bit of a wash out in much of the alps with Buller, Baw Baw and Lake Mt looking at lots of wet fog and drizzle.

[StratoBendigo]

We seem to be getting a lot of warm westeries originating from that warm patch in the Indian Ocean this winter.

Still plenty of winter to come, and possibily quite a few strong cold fronts later this month.

Lake Eppalock should overflow later today. Just 2cm from full supply level. A good position to be in heading into El-Nino.