Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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Another week of westerlies with weak troughs and lows. First one through on Tuesday and Wednesday and the second around Saturday and Sunday. Both systems are quite slow moving and fairly mild. Lots of showers and potentially storms. Some snow on the peaks, but overall not likely to be a great snow producers. Colder air might move in later in the sequence.
The main high stays pinned southwest of Perth which will keep the sequence going. Is interesting that this pattern looks like continuing going off the seasonal forecasts.
2.4mm overnight, along with a howling northerly wind.
We've been stuck in northerlies for quite a while now, which looks like continuing for longer yet. We're also running at about 3 degrees above average for both maximum and minimum temps, which is not only making it a very mild June so far but also warmer than May!
Might see some showers today as the trough moves through, although I'm not expecting a lot here. Should be better north of the ranges though.
3mm overnight. The last 2 days have been cooler than normal here(12c each day), which is a bit of a change from last week. Some signs of a decent cold outbreak around June 19-21 in the forecasts.
The Antarctic sea ice extent (or lack of it) is interesting at present. Of note is the ice-free Bellinghausen Sea in May which has seen the low that is usually centred on the Amundsen Sea located several hundred miles to the East.
A non event so far is southeast Tas. Cold nights, mild days and just the odd shower.
Good to see more exciting weather in west facing areas, and a bit of snow in the alps, though the snow levels remain rather high for almost mid winter.
Progs look like keeping this pattern going for another ten days. Next week could be quite wild weather wise.
Derwent wrote: ↑Fri Jun 16, 2023 10:46 pm
18.1 degrees for us today average is 12.6 and it’s still 15c outside.
I think tomorrow will nudge the record of 19.5c set in 2019
Yep, 18C yesterday. 15C here at 7am. Crazy warmth for the time of year. No meaningful snow on the mountain in weeks.
Melbourne and Sydney still haven’t had a below average day for the month. Adelaide and Canberra have had one. Down here in southern TAS every day has been warmer than average. Our grass needs a mow and the fruit trees are budding and the cherries have flowers on them. This is getting pretty crazy.
The westerly sequence looks like sticking for another ten days. Quite active fronts, with alternating very mild airmass and somewhat cooler ones. Perhaps a new thread? Front for Sunday looks quite wet.
Pure disgusting windy filth out there today. So over it. Has to be one of the most boring frustrating periods of weather I've experienced for quite some time.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Few spots down here got to within a degree of their June record today. 19.6C here, 19.0C at Bushy Park, plenty of 18-19C around. Few gusts over 100km/hr.
Decent rainband for western and northern Tas, and for southern and mountain VIC. Should be just could enough for snow on the a,PS later.
Front for late Sunday into Monday looks stronger again.
Half decent system for much of VIC. Widespread 5-15mm and snow this morning to about 1000m. Good for northern and western Tas but completely faded in the southeast,
Tonight’s front is stronger and wetter.
Perhaps a new thread for mid week which looks like a distinct system.
10mm here last night in what was a fairly slow moving front.
Finally a cool morning here. It dropped to 4.3c, which is actually around the average, but it's the coldest morning in more than 2 weeks. Just goes to show how warm this month has been. That said, it looks like some cooler temps are on their way this week.
8mm last night keeping things moist and green, loving the rain at night, sunny during the day pattern
Another repeat tonight into tomorrow and becoming much colder this week right on the solsitice when winter should start lol not looking forward to it loving this mild run.
Another widespread 5 to 15mm for many with next front isol 20mm plus and 20cm of snow
Thursday another widespread 10-20mm for most with next big system and looking good across northern Vic great for farmers.
Next week possible even bigger system with a big north west cloud band and widespread rain so that too be one to watch
Another very westerly system with bumper falls in western and northern Tas, and southern and mountain Vic. Keeps things ticking over.
East facing areas not so much. The next system looks like it will be more easterly, at least initially so hope to play catch up down here in eastern Tas.
Nice and chilly, particularly TAS where snow levels are currently around 500m. Alps starting to get skiable or almost so, though still pretty thing at the lower elevations.
Another 11mm here and still raining lightly. Starting to get really wet with the local creeks pumping.
Current temp 2.5C; BOM have dropped the snow level to 600m. I'll spend most of the day lower than here, so may miss seeing it snow (if it does). Macedonian should be a good chance!