Two more lows 12-18 April

[Gordon]

Worth a new thread as models are firming on two more low pressure systems to cross Victoria: one on Wednesday/ Thursday, and another Saturday - ?

Combined, both look to deliver significant follow up rain to most of Victoria. It will be interesting to see how (or if) STC Ilsa off NW Australia contributes.

[Didjman]

we might get more than 8mm here lol!

[Gordon]

we might get more than 8mm here lol!

Hope so Didjman; looking at the weekly totals map, you really were ripped off! http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rain ... =04&day=10

[StratoBendigo]

This Wednesday has really got me interested. EC in particular.

[Petros]

The remnants of the new WA cyclone excite me more:

[Gordon]

WATL this morning has 25-50mm for most of Victoria for the dates, and for a good chunk of Tassie as well.

[StratoBendigo]

All very welcome rain, especially heading into an El-Nino.

A similar thing happened in April 2014 when we had 102mm, most of which fell during a persistent 3 day inland trough which parked itself over Vic.

[QldTwister]

Nice today with increaseing clouds

Widespread rain, showers possible thunderstorms in the north tomorrow 5 to 15mm for most then mild late week.

Then strong front Ex TC slides over us on weekend with strong winds and a band of rain another 10 to 20mm for most though probarly on and south of ranges but hopefully that dumps for all farmers north of ranges so they can get planting

[Gordon]

First system is delivering, 6mm here so far (we're a bit rain shadowed) but plenty of 10-20mm falls in the western half of the state.

A cool and windy 8.5C.

[StratoBendigo]

Half-an-inch or 12mm here this morning in round 1.

[Didjman]

4mm here

[snowfall]

4mm here as well. Very windy overnight and currently.

[stevco123]

5.6mm here

[Dane]

8.8mm's here up to 9am this morning none since MTD is 46mm's
8.0mm's at Ballarat Airport MTD is 50.6mm's - Momthly average is 50.9mm's
The Bom was predicting a drier than normal April for most of Victoria
For the Ballarat area they said only about a 35% chance of exceeding the monthly
average, they were wrong.

[jimmyay]

And the rain keeps coming. 7th day in a row with decent rain for the city, 60mm month to date by tomorrow morning. If the weekend delivers all it promises (and totals this week have been at the upper end of the forecast range) we could be pushing towards 100mm MTD by the end of the weekend - with half the month still to go!

Let’s see!!

[hillybilly]

Just shy of 4mm here for hump day. Nice way to round out the wet spell.

Not sure about this coming weekend. EC is pretty mixed, while the other models are more optimistic. The uppers are quite good, but the surface system is fading. Hoping that EC is the outlier.

[StratoBendigo]

Could be 15-25mm here on the weekend. Can't really see much more than that.

TC Ilsa is expected to produce wind gusts up to 275 km/h when it comes ashore in WA. Central Australia is likely to cop some of the remnants of that too with heavy rains in that region now forecast.

[Gordon]

A further 2mm yesterday evening to give us 8mm for part one, and 51mm mtd.

[stevco123]

Slightly off topic but relevant:

Bedout Island off the WA coast has just had a wind gust of 289 km/h, and sustained winds of over 210km/h thanks to cyclone Ilsa. Not a nice place to be.

[jimmyay]

Very fortunate that few people live there. Imagine the devastation of a Cat 4-5 over a large city!