The Australian Weather Forum

Nice surprise this morning. 25mm here so far. Started with thick fog, then a decent storm, a few good flashes and rumbles, and very heavy rain. The rain rate was up around 180mm/h for a part of it. Some good follow-up rain too, although it looks to be about to clear for a while. Definitely very handy, especially for helping to fill the tanks back up.

Very handy 13mm
Looks promising for another round or two to this arvo
Fingers crossed

9mm
dog was not impressed.
thought it was night time @ 9am
looks like stage 2 and 3 are building..

Southern half of Bendigo just got smashed. No idea on rain total yet, but drains overflowing in places...

Bendigo Airport AWS - 0mm.

Very nice to be getting some rain, but not exactly a forecasting triumph for BOM or the models. I see the Melbourne forecast is up to its third update this morning .

Rain forecasting has been rubbish for the last few weeks, especially for the western half of the state.

Gordon wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 11:36 am Very nice to be getting some rain, but not exactly a forecasting triumph for BOM or the models. I see the Melbourne forecast is up to its third update this morning .

Rain forecasting has been rubbish for the last few weeks, especially for the western half of the state.

*Forecast models really struggling since Covid (less aviation data), and Tongan Volcano (Stratospheric water vapor injection)...

About 20mm+ in parts of Southern Bendigo

Gordon wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 11:36 am Very nice to be getting some rain, but not exactly a forecasting triumph for BOM or the models. I see the Melbourne forecast is up to its third update this morning .

Rain forecasting has been rubbish for the last few weeks, especially for the western half of the state.

It sure has. This one wasn't properly picked up even a day out, although happy to be overdoing the forecast for rain.

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 11:40 am

Gordon wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 11:36 am Very nice to be getting some rain, but not exactly a forecasting triumph for BOM or the models. I see the Melbourne forecast is up to its third update this morning .

Rain forecasting has been rubbish for the last few weeks, especially for the western half of the state.

*Forecast models really struggling since Covid (less aviation data), and Tongan Volcano (Stratospheric water vapor injection)...

About 20mm+ in parts of Southern Bendigo

Looks like another storm might be headed your way SB.

snowfall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:01 pm

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 11:40 am

Gordon wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 11:36 am Very nice to be getting some rain, but not exactly a forecasting triumph for BOM or the models. I see the Melbourne forecast is up to its third update this morning .

Rain forecasting has been rubbish for the last few weeks, especially for the western half of the state.

*Forecast models really struggling since Covid (less aviation data), and Tongan Volcano (Stratospheric water vapor injection)...

About 20mm+ in parts of Southern Bendigo

Looks like another storm might be headed your way SB.

Yeah. Maldon just got smashed by the looks of it... Coming in from WSW, so obviously some upper-atmospheric dynamics at play.

snowfall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:55 am Nice surprise this morning. 25mm here so far. Started with thick fog, then a decent storm, a few good flashes and rumbles, and very heavy rain. The rain rate was up around 180mm/h for a part of it. Some good follow-up rain too, although it looks to be about to clear for a while. Definitely very handy, especially for helping to fill the tanks back up.

Wow! We only got 5mm at the foot of the mountain.
I'm moving to Gisborne South!

Round 2 is delivering. Had a black core on radar to our West. Been a big surprise today...

Talking of storms, Shepparton is about to get beat-up real bad.

Pretty Good storm here between 10.30am and 11.30am 9mm's from that with a peak rate of 90mm/hour.
2 really good Flangs sounded like a bomb going off.
First thunder here since January 2.
BAP had 5.6mm's

Reports coming in of big hail at Shepparton.

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 1:59 pm Reports coming in of big hail at Shepparton.

Gauges took a long time to click over after the rain started suggesting hail.

Spot falls in the 30-50mm range.

No rain in Hobart. All to the north. Might do well next week but models are pretty jumpy.

6mm here today! No storms

Macedonian wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 1:00 pm

snowfall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:55 am Nice surprise this morning. 25mm here so far. Started with thick fog, then a decent storm, a few good flashes and rumbles, and very heavy rain. The rain rate was up around 180mm/h for a part of it. Some good follow-up rain too, although it looks to be about to clear for a while. Definitely very handy, especially for helping to fill the tanks back up.

Wow! We only got 5mm at the foot of the mountain.
I'm moving to Gisborne South!

Oh no. It was a fairly direct hit here, so I guess it must have only scraped Macedon.

26mm in the end here, so not much in the way of follow-up. Might be some showers or drizzle around in the morning but otherwise we wait and see what comes from next week’s system.

Another early morning storm to the west of Melbourne. I’ve seen these in spring and summer but pretty rare in autumn.

Next system not far off. Upper trough gets stuck to the north of the STR later on the weekend and develops into a low which drifts south. Should spread around Vic and Tas, though perhaps not so much for western areas. Few days out so could yet change.

hillybilly wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 6:57 am Another early morning storm to the west of Melbourne.

Yes, a nice big blob of rain which delivered about 10mm here and similar in Ballarat; very welcome.

But yet another forecasting fail - although the incoming rain was obvious to anyone looking at the radar at 5.30am, the Ballarat forecast issued at the same time (and ours) was for a 'slight chance of a shower'. It took until 8.43am for the Ballarat forecast to update to 'medium chance of showers', just as the rain was clearing Ballarat! Come on BOM, you can do better than that!

Agree entirely with your comments Gordon, temperature predictions, rainfall etc. all considerably off what predicted.