Long January heatwave, January 8-20

[hillybilly]

Long almost open ended hot spell coming up. In the south and Tasmania will be a couple of cooler days, but in northern areas heat will roll on day after day. Temperature could well peak close the mid 40s in the Mallee on the backside of next weekend depending on the details that land. Likely to get to the high 30s in southern VIC, and typically around low 30s in Tasmania.

Very little rain showing up for the event with some isolated showers around late Monday and Tuesday, and then possibly late next weekend.

Suspect this will leave much of southeast Australia quite cure with large amounts of grass, so will need to keep an eye on any windy hot days.

[snowfall]

Thanks HB. Not looking forward to this, but the signs are there for what is likely to be a dry month. We've gone straight from very wet to hot and dry - could already do with some rain!

Currently 27c here, heading for probably around 30c - 31c today.

[Skywalker]

Unfortunately it's back to full-time watering of the gardens with no rain in sight at all. Can't believe how rapidly it's changed.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

We arrived home Thursday and was shocked to see the ground was well watered.
It won’t be that way now today had some kick in it, although a pleasant 25 tomorrow,
Pretty much can handle this I think..

[hillybilly]

Walpeup at 37.4 and Busy Park with 31.4C the tops in Victoria and Tasmania today. Weak front will cool coastal parts, but inland mainland will stay warm to hot. Might get a few light showers in Tasmania and a touch of drizzle near the coast in Victoria.

Progs otherwise just look hot. Could easily see three 35C+ in Melbourne if EC sticks.

[Didjman]

Our max today here - 35.6C. That's at 1000ft ASL!

[StratoBendigo]

Quite a lot of divergence in the forecast models after next weekend.

Worth noting that Ex-TC Ellie has dropped quite a lot of rain on Central Australia today. Alice Springs 48mm just this afternoon...

[Gordon]

Quite a lot of divergence in the forecast models after next weekend.

Still very difficult for this humble interpreter to make much sense of the models from about late next weekend. Every model seems to offer some rain, but where and how much seems to diverge a lot.

Meanwhile, cool nights look to be our saviour here over the coming string of warm days.

[Derwent]

Well I think most peeps will be over the by next Sunday. Never fun to look that far ahead with high to low 30”s . Just seemed to turn so quickly down here in south Tasmania ( Huon valley)
The long grass is curing so fingers crossed no fires strike us . At least the cherries will be warm and plump:)

[hillybilly]

Good to see a neighbour posting Derwent

24C here. Change came through early but was like a sea breeze rather than a proper change. Lots of stratus now at about 400m, and maybe a chance for some drizzle.

Looks like the main change on Sunday might be a bit earlier, but against that the heat is nudged up a bit for Saturday. Melbourne could well see a 40C in the burbs. CBD looks like 38 or 39C going off EC and GFS.

[StratoBendigo]

Some hints of rainfall this time next week to end the heatwave. Could be quite a bit.

[hillybilly]

Almost drizzled here last night Tis starting to get dry down here. 20C for a max. Is actually a bushfire caused by lightning out near Lake Pedder which is never a good sign. That area has a mean rainfall around 3000mm, and lots of old growth rainforests. Four water bombers working it today seem to be reasonably confident they’ll put it out.

Heat starts cranking tomorrow for the mainland. Saturday now looks like the peak. Could well see a 44C in the Mallee which is a once every few years type number, so quite notable if we nudge that. Not a good days for grassland fire risk. Worth watching the warnings as it gets closer.

[hillybilly]

Another stinker across northern Vic, and oddly quite hot in western Tasmania where Scott’s Peak at 400m reached 29.6C. Heat slowly spreads south tomorrow and peaks Saturday. Another spike day on Tuesday.

Rain looks patchy at best, and progs are pretty jumpy. Starting to get pretty dry out there. Good falls pretty likely in western Tasmania with the fronts on Saturday and Tuesday, but elsewhere will depend on storms and the details.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Gippy

[stevco123]

Looks like a tornado hit Benalla last night. There are photos of damage on social media, and a photo of a discount funnel developing

[Gordon]

Big change from yesterday here - 32C and humid, to 16C and drizzle. No significant rain however - that seems to be domain of the eastern half of the state.

[snowfall]

Currently 17c here. This time yesterday it was 34c. 1.4mm this morning from drizzle. We really need a decent rain event now. Maybe a bit to come around mid week and then again on the weekend, but models have still been shifting around so anything is far from locked in.

But nice to have the cooler weather today before the next round of heat arrives.

[tonycynic]

Drizzle here today, could do with some rain now, getting dry.

[hillybilly]

Drizzle here today, could do with some rain now, getting dry.

Was out and about on Sunday through the eastern burbs and definitely getting dry. Same in Tasmania. Deep soil moisture is good with tree growing well, but the heat and dry over the last month has really dried the top layers.

Bit slow on the reports as we we were at Elton on Saturday and catching up with friends on Sunday. Back down in Tassie reached 31C on Saturday and 22C on Sunday. That’s our hottest day of summer. Zilch rain, unfortunately Only light falls about the southwest.

Warm day for most today, spike tomorrow. Solid front for late Tuesday into Wednesday. Should drop locally moderate falls but quite patchy. Storms through eastern areas of both states, and then showers in the cold southerly behind. Airmass is quite chilly by Wednesday with flurries possible about the southern peaks in Tas. This cool air gets trapped on the northern side of the incoming high and sets us up for the next event next weekend

Also some isolated storms today. Expect to be mainly near the ranges, with sea breezes keeping them off the plains.

[Blackee]

Some decent convection around the state presently. Looks to be building to the NW. Hopefully, it reaches greater Melb next few hours. A real stinker out there. Looking forward to a few days of mild weather.