Watching how this wiggle in the progs. Looks to be fairly settled with a sharpening upper trough stalling as it approaches the southeast with a surface trough. On Friday morning the jet goes north-south at over 140 knots so about 250km/hr. That’s phenomenal. With record or near record precipitable water values for October rainfall will be heavy on north facing slopes in particular. Not much in the way of storms, just saturated atmosphere with lots of rain.
North central to northeast Victoria and northern Tasmania look the main focus. Could well be very strong rainshadows on parts of southern Tasmania and south and east Tasmania. Tiny shifts will make a big difference. Expecting around 40mm here which will be welcome, but nothing to exciting.
Northern Tasmania looks the most serious to me atm. Totals are not that different from what was saw in June 2016. It’s been a dry year in the region so rain will be welcome to a point but not this much