Yet another slow moving low pressure system: 12-16/11/21

[James]

haha, what did i say a few weeks ago about models/forecasts?

yet another over hyped situation that changes by the time it actually happens.

When will people see the pattern?

[StratoBendigo]

Probably quite a few record Low max temps for November across inland South Australia. 13c at Whyalla is a possibility if it holds.

Mildura now up to 9mm. It only just exceeded its lowest Nov max temp

[weathergasm]

haha, what did i say a few weeks ago about models/forecasts?

yet another over hyped situation that changes by the time it actually happens.

When will people see the pattern?

I don’t think it was overly hyped, can’t remember the forecast for Friday being another other than rain for Melbourne - no mention of storms. The amount of rain that BOM forecast went down as we got closer to the day, but not by an unreasonable amount.

I think the most they said in the forecast was up to 35mm a few days ago. Now it’s up to 20mm. Not exactly the let down of the century.

[Petros]

We had a nice calm sunny day here, 18C felt warmer this arvo. I see rain trying to loom down over the ranges into Gippsland on the current radar.

Mods - sorry, there is a typo I made in this thread title, it should be 12-16/11/21. Can I fix this myself?

[hillybilly]

haha, what did i say a few weeks ago about models/forecasts?

yet another over hyped situation that changes by the time it actually happens.

When will people see the pattern?

This is big. Melbourne was always on the margin. Question is how much spilled into central. Current progs suggest 30-60mm across central by this time Sunday. Eastern areas will get a lot. EC has barely budged through the whole period. I’ve been thinking about 100mm here for the thread, and still expect to get about that. A sub 990hPa low over northern Vic is very notable.

Current EC has concerning falls across the eastern third of Vic. Another area to watch is southern inland and eastern NSW. Lots of flood watches posted.

So many notable falls across the country with plenty of records for rain and probably cold in SA today (assuming no late spikes). The numbers I’m seeing are once in fifty year type numbers over there in many spots. Perth and Alice also both notable rainfall records for November.

I’ve always found people tend to pick the extreme runs. I always pick the middle of the pack and weight towards EC. Almost always works out. The extreme runs tell you what might happen, not what will happen. Unfortunately, particularly, social media etc tends to lead to the most extreme and loud voices being heard the most .

[StratoBendigo]

The positioning of the Low means we'll be rainshadowed for most of this event. Not a bad thing really given the impending harvest.

Can't see more than 10-15mm here.

[Wilko]

Gee massive event unfolding in NSW and parts of QLD
The Canberra 512km pretty well tells the story
Serious flooding and Victoria is not out of the woods yet
Looks rainy cold till Tuesday
Adelaide radar shows what is coming our way
Sunday looks nasty
Once all is done expecting 60mm here

[Macedonian]

I dont mind if it doesnt rain a lot, just hope it is not too windy.
I had a max yesterday of 8.5C, today was 9C and four more single digit maxs in a row to come. Feels like September not November.
1110mm ytd so far.

[StratoBendigo]

3mm overnight. Glad we didn't get much.

[hillybilly]

Messy radar atm. Stuck in a hole here with just 3mm overnight. Progs expect it to thicken up during the day. Heavy falls to set in for eastern parts.

Winds were gusty easterlies overnight, but have eased back since sunrise.

[snowfall]

Just 0.8mm here overnight and currently 8.2c. The wind had been fairly calm but it’s just starting to pick up a bit now from the south/southeast.

[Pengaz]

4.5mm here from a heavy shower overnight.

Looks like some moderate rain inbound from the north for us shortly. Have had some gusty easterlies, baro is down so will be interesting to see what eventuates today.

[Mike]

Just 0.8mm here overnight and currently 8.2c. The wind had been fairly calm but it’s just starting to pick up a bit now from the south/southeast.

I think we have discussed this before, been very windy here since afternoon yesterday coincident with the pressure drop from inland low, SSE wind just tears through Woodend. Already at least one tree down message earlier this morning. Cant get out to gauge but less reliable electronic rain gauge says around 3mm so far.

Edit: Will the interference just NE of Macedon on the radar be able to be corrected I wonder?

[snowfall]

Just 0.8mm here overnight and currently 8.2c. The wind had been fairly calm but it’s just starting to pick up a bit now from the south/southeast.

I think we have discussed this before, been very windy here since afternoon yesterday coincident with the pressure drop from inland low, SSE wind just tears through Woodend. Already at least one tree down message earlier this morning. Cant get out to gauge but less reliable electronic rain gauge says around 3mm so far.

Edit: Will the interference just NE of Macedon on the radar be able to be corrected I wonder?

That's quite amazing, especially being only just down the road. It has really been very calm here but it seems that the squeeze between the higher sides of Woodend really make the wind rip. I guess on a thankful note, we don't get the SSE winds all that often, though more common in summer. We do get the southerlies quite often in summer afternoons that come in on the seabreeze - sometimes even with the smell of the ocean! Northerly winds are the worst here. Not sure why, but it seems that as they come downslope, they really pick up.

The interference that was occurring near Ballan seems to have been fixed, so maybe the BOM will turn their attention to that one near Mt Macedon.

Hope the wind slows down for you soon and you don't get any damage.

[StratoBendigo]

Dry this morning which is not what EC was predicting. 8mm since Tuesday and I can't see much more. Forecast models really overcooked this one.

Cold for November though.

[hillybilly]

Foul weather up here. Nuisance rain coming in sideway at about 50km/hr, fog and 8C. So foul the chickens won’t come out and the geese have sought shelter

Thankful for a hot fire place and double glazing.

4mm more since 9am, and about 30mm for the thread. Should get heavier as the arvo progresses. Totals adding up quickly in Gippsland now as expected.

[Adam38]

12mm of heavy drizzle since midnight, starting to get heavier now with a gusty se wind. The clay soil is really saturated here, I can see pools of water in the market gardens down in the valley below.

[Petros]

In the past 30 minutes we've gone from medium rain in cold calm conditions to a howling easterly gale with rain now lashing down.

Can someone change the thread date to 16th (not 26th that I mis-typed)?

[StratoBendigo]

A couple of mm at lunchtime here. The centre of the Low is just to our North. Now in the 'eye'.

[snowfall]

Getting very windy here now. It also hasn't stopped raining since this morning. It has mostly been moderate but with occasional heavier bursts, with 25mm so far.