Yet another slow moving low pressure system: 12-16/11/21

[Petros]

It keeps on keepin' on:

[Onetahuti]

That it seems in the forecast for the coming week. Already above the November average after yesterday's effort.

[stevco123]

Has the bureau declared a La Nina yet? Last i read it was one of the last weather agencies to declare it officially.

[StratoBendigo]

Looks like a pretty decent cold outbreak for November. Not unusual though (i.e. 2008, 2006, 1998, 1989 have good examples).

[Supercellimpact]

Snow on the alps on the weekend. Chilly.

[StratoBendigo]

Another case of divergent forecast models struggling to get a handle on it.

Next 7 days:
CMA - 1mm
GFS - 15mm
UM - 28mm
ASX-G - 35mm
ICN - 40mm
EC - 40mm
GEM - 70mm
UKMET - 80mm

Gut feel is 20-30mm.

[Skywalker]

Interesting weekend coming up by the looks of it.

I'm getting out of the western hellhole & will be heading down to island Friday after work, so might actually see a bit of action. Boat might come in handy if this comes off.

[Petros]

Another case of divergent forecast models struggling to get a handle on it.

Next 7 days:
CMA - 1mm
GFS - 15mm
UM - 28mm
ASX-G - 35mm
ICN - 40mm
EC - 40mm
GEM - 70mm
UKMET - 80mm

Gut feel is 20-30mm.

Yep, lots of waxing and waning amongst the models as this winter/spring spate of low pressure systems loom towards Victoria.

Heres CMC's latest (from the now annoying WZ site):



If this run turn out accurate, it will be a slow moving low as it crosses Vic?

[hillybilly]

Models converging on the EC scenario of the low currently over inland WA steadily deepening. It waves strongly in southern NSW dropping to around 990hPa near Albury. Very strong upslide in the north and east flow will tap solid precipitable water. Heavy falls through eastern areas, wrapping into central and west central. These often make it to about the Wimmera so could be trouble for croppers at this late point in the growing season

Low crosses into Bass Strait around Gabo Island. Dropping to about 985hPa.

Doesn’t look that great for storms with mainly stratiform rain and showery bands. Expect big falls in the usual spots, particularly the Otways, south Gippsland Hills and foot hills of the great divide. Be surprised if we don’t see lots of storm totals over 100mm. Heavy snowfalls in the alps on the backend.

EC has about 100mm here which looks about right.

Thankfully tides this weekend are not too high, and the winds are mostly strong to gales. Could be worse, but progs generally avoiding the awful winds we had with the June or October systems.

Lead in system for Wednesday which is on the upper trough which eventually deepens the low as it stalls over SA. That alone should drop 10-20mm.

[Tassiedave]

The Thursday/Friday/Saturday LOW looks like missing Tassie. But....Sunday into Monday chance of snow down to 500m in Tasmania. Monday Launceston 14 degrees, Hobart 12 degrees, Cradle Valley 4 degrees

[Wilko]

All aboard the inland Low
Massive amounts of moisture being drawn down in to Victoria
1st round tomorrow morning then rain rain and more rain from Friday
I’m keen and onboard
EC has 50mm + and all relevant models are ranging 50 - 80mm here
Heading down to Lorne next week for Sun and Surf...well Lets say Surf !!!

[hillybilly]

Looks like widespread 10-25mm to kick off for tomorrow. Clearer Thursday rainy Friday. Sunday looks like delivering storms on the change.

Winds eased a bit which is good given how much damage we’ve had from recent lows

Interesting to see some solid falls already in Tasmania. Our new place in Howden is on 24mm since 9am (and scored about 190mm last month ). There’s one gauge just south of Hobart showing 50mm in the last couple of hours.

[StratoBendigo]

Much less in the forecasts now for NW Vic. Which isn't a bad thing this close to harvest.

[QldTwister]

WET, WET, WET, is the story crazy wet had enough here, 205mm in 6 weeks crazy, mozzies gonna suck in summer.
79mm last week prob another 80mm this week

Most years tomorrows 15 to 25mm we all be excited about and talking about, but not IOD/La Nina years no sir thats a light shower lol.
More intrested in the 50 to 100mm event Fri/Sat with another deep moist slow moving low lots of heavy rain in Northern and Eastern Vic then in SE Vic and into central Vic, Gippy gonna get soaked again lots of flooding across much of eastern Vic and parts of central Vic this weekend.
Then bloodly winter Sunday Monday

Impressive system be lots of flooding in NSW and lots of flash flooding across central and eastern inland Aus
WA has had 2 days of supercells in same area amazing and deep low crossing central Aus dont see that to much what a spring we having

Also much of the country 5 to 15c below avg this week dont see that much these days

Enjoy another big 7 days of weather ahaed

[Wilko]

Wow check the radar for Mt Isa
The rain is not budging....serious flooding for sure
Maybe the radar is faulty

[tonycynic]

Raining here, only light but steady. Ready to hear all the ‘global warming must be fake cos it is cold’ stories at work now.
Lawn here is still soggy from last time, planting violets in the wet areas this year. Been good rain since I installed tanks almost 2 years ago. Off to Moe now, stay warm people.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Good day to head on school camp, back packs and tents. Glad I’ll be home by the fire.
Slight drizzle from Mansfield, more solid from yea to Melb.

[hillybilly]

Raining here, only light but steady. Ready to hear all the ‘global warming must be fake cos it is cold’ stories at work now.
Lawn here is still soggy from last time, planting violets in the wet areas this year. Been good rain since I installed tanks almost 2 years ago. Off to Moe now, stay warm people.

Apparently hottest October on record for global land areas. That’s not good for a La Niña Sea levels are responding with the recent rise now up to a record 5mm/yr. I’m always thankful when we get the insulating effects of La Niña locally. Let’s you get a bit of “normal” Hoping this La Niña pattern sticks through summer for the southeast.

Steady rain here this morning. About 5mm so far. Expecting to clock about 20mm before it clear. We missed the big storms on Saturday so ground will happily take an inch.

Friday’s low still on track, though rainfall totals have dropped a touch. Looking like 20-80mm for central and eastern areas now. The west and parts of central (thinking lower Yarra Valley which is heavily rainshadowed) might struggle a bit. Wet Sunday, and might get some rumbles.

Amazing watching big totals clocked up all over the place. Alice is worth watching as it approaches its November record.

[Skywalker]

Nice steady soaking rain.
Have moved all the indoor plants outside for a decent drink. They are going to love it.

[StratoBendigo]

4mm overnight. Most of the forecast models have converged for 20-30mm here until Monday.