A deep low with gales, heavy rain, storms and coastal surge: October 28-31

[hillybilly]

Big system coming up to finish October. Deep multi centre low currently back near SA will deepen on Thursday before dropping to around 985hPa in Bass Strait on Friday. Ahead of it nasty winds from the north. Progs showing gusts well over 100km/hr on the slopes. The winds then go westerly and southwesterly. Nasty winds, potentially storm force about the coast with big waves. Set up will produce wave run up on the beaches, though overland track may somewhat limit the storm surge potential.

Storms will be widespread but patchy Thursday. They then focus on the west where heavy falls are likely. Suspect a bit of a miss rain wise for areas east of Melbourne with most coming in the swly stream behind the low. That said a storm on Thursday could change that. If progs wiggle details could change a lot.

Then clears quickly for Saturday and a rather nice weekend.

[Skywalker]

Sounds like a potential garbage system full of windy filth & bugger all rain.

As usual we shall wait & see what actually unfolds.

[James]

Judging by past models, systems and this season, i expect nothing of substance,

I expect somewhere to get a big storm, probably localised, and then any moaning i do, someone will say "but the forecast was correct, somewhere did get a storm"

By then someone will be already getting excited about the next system and that will excuse how much of a dud the last string on them was.

I am all saying this sarcastically and tongue in cheek, as it is quite amusing to me.

I was watching a fairly well known storm chasing page live streaming the other day, having kittens over the models predictions for this system, and all the followers blindly following along - they clearly didn't realise they had it on next weeks system which was throwing up epic armageddon like scenarios (as it always does this far out! ) Once they had all the followers in a tizz about what was coming, then the merchandising talk began.

Will be interesting to see what happens with this system, but i think we just seem to be unlucky here in Melb, when i used to live in the country it seemed to be in reverse, Melb seemed to always get lines of storms and fronts across the bay, and even my father used to speak about them living in the suburbs as a kid, but it seems weather times have changed,?

[QldTwister]

Yeah little for Melb with this, all SW Vic this system lots of rain and storms for them hit and miss showers for us, but dont need the rain here so fine by me

Loving the warmth so good best time of year

Impressive deep low as moves through shame not a big NE infeed would flood it down if there was.
Lots TS in SA tomorrow and western and northern Vic

Heavy rain and storms for SW Vic but hit and miss with isol heavy falls for rest of Vic Thurs, Fri. Cold windy Saturday.

Nice warm to hot early-mid next week and then someone getting flooded mid-late next week with widespread heavy TS wish was on the murray or inland NSW next week.

[hillybilly]

Judging by past models, systems and this season, i expect nothing of substance,

I expect somewhere to get a big storm, probably localised, and then any moaning i do, someone will say "but the forecast was correct, somewhere did get a storm"

By then someone will be already getting excited about the next system and that will excuse how much of a dud the last string on them was.

I am all saying this sarcastically and tongue in cheek, as it is quite amusing to me.

Definitely a system that is more for the west. Anything we get in way of storms across Melbourne is a bonus. I am expecting rumbles today but conditions are not ideal for us.

Progs have tended to wiggle the low east. UK and EC which are the best models have it moving almost right over the top of Melbourne early hours of tomorrow with a central pressure near 990hPa. GFS and GEM about 150km to the southwest. Under all the rainfall is pretty similar. Scattered showers and storms today. These then fade in the evening as a rain band develops on the low. That goes through central mid morning tomorrow but is weakening. Biggest falls across the western third of the state. There is then a showery swly later Friday.

Northerlies look nasty later today. Elevated areas will see well over 100km/hr. Then come the swly gales. Given the low is deep but does not have a strong gradient the very strongest swly winds look like staying mainly about the coastal strip and Bass Strait.

Bit surprised to see a few cells out there this morning. EC picked them, but I didn’t.

[Didjman]

Bit surprised to see a few cells out there this morning. EC picked them, but I didn’t.

The sky here is screaming instability! Castellanus, Undulatus, Aspiratus...... Even the odd rumble!

[snowfall]

A few short but intense showers here this morning, with 4.4mm and one rumble of thunder. Not looking forward to the wind later, but good to see the west in line for some solid rainfalls. EC is still forecasting significant rain for central areas later next week, though too far out for any reasonable confidence at this stage.

[StratoBendigo]

Most of the models have gone right away for decent totals here today and tomorrow. Might just get the scraps - i.e. a few mm.

Next week is looking much more interesting....

[Wilko]

Severe storms on the Adelaide radar Wow

[weathergasm]

Most recent skew t has decent enough instability for Melbourne. I would not be surprised if we got a storm later.

[StratoBendigo]

Severe storms on the Adelaide radar Wow

Yeah, fast-moving with bow-echoes etc. Reminds me of what smashed us a few years back.

[QldTwister]

Golf ball hail east of Adel cells moving near 100km/h

Big day in western Vic and eastern SA will explode this arvo and evening big day jealous

light winds warm and sunny here have no idea bombing low to our west today tonight

[Australis(Shell3155)]

SA Radar.. Black Long line out of Adelaide.

https://theweatherchaser.com/radar/IDR642-adelaide/8

[hillybilly]

Two storms here this morning. 1.4mm in the gauge. LI are down in the -5 to -7 range in the Mallee. That’s nasty. Cells will be intense with large hail and bring down the high winds

The storms will be near Melbourne by 5pm but weakening. Should see something, but not clear how well it will hang together as it moves further east.

Hail damage in Twitter around Adelaide. Hail about golf ball size

[Adam38]

So the further west you are the greater the chance for storms today? Not looking forward the expected wind later…

[Wilko]

Two storms here this morning. 1.4mm in the gauge. LI are down in the -5 to -7 range in the Mallee. That’s nasty. Cells will be intense with large hail and bring down the high winds

The storms will be near Melbourne by 5pm but weakening. Should see something, but not clear how well it will hang together as it moves further east.

Hail damage in Twitter around Adelaide. Hail about golf ball size

Nasty indeed
The Rainbow radar is starting to light up big time
Those out West better batten down

[StratoBendigo]

Some mad storms in Radelaide. Massive insurance payouts likely....

[Mike]

0.8mm this morning and one distant faint rumble. Warmest day in months with a high of 23.8c and pretty epic sky atm, fair bit of lift visible to my SSW in front of the line. First rumble as I type yay.

[Adam38]

Amazing sky here, lightning and thunder

[Wilko]

Wow where did that come from
Black sky to the west
Just managed to put cover on veggies
Radar firing up over central now
I think BOM are asleep